Mastersball Fantasy Forum

Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?

The problem with McCutchen's average is the midpoint is in the .290s, this is what I expect.

But his downside is .260-.270.

But as PVH said as well as myself -- the counting stats will be there so I just need to have some BA buffer elsewhere, and if Cutch hits for average, I do better in the category.

Cutch over CarGo because of health concerns. CarGo has more of a chance to miss significant time than McCutchen, IMnotsoHO anyway.

Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?

Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor

Captain Hook wrote:

Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?

Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor

I am worried he misses time, hamstrings are tricky things. I'm worried the SB drop as a means of trying to stay healthy, but I'd still roll the dice with him over McCutchen. I probably start debating it at 9/10 with Fielder.

Like I said I've never seen such a suspect top 10. I really only feel like there are 5 guys I'd bank on returning 1st Rd value, after that I just feel like your mitigating risk, which is why I've started to lean towards the cluster of 1B. Although I thought A Gon was a safe #1 pick last year and we all know how that one turned out.

Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds

Captain Hook wrote:Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds

I actually think we agree. I think it's more of a glass 1/2 full vs 1/2 empty way of looking at it. You see lot's of talent evenly matched and I bemoan the lack of truly elite talent.

Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?

Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...

2004 Champs wrote:

Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?

Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...

While I'm still not taking him in the 1st round the argument for it does include something I think is true. Longoria is not someone who misses a game here or there or is constantly day to day. Most of the time when he's out he's out which allows you to replace him in the line up. When he plays he gives you elite numbers. So if you draft a competent back up you can mitigate the risk. Strategy also should be based on your size league, deeper the league harder it is to be able to allocate resources to backing up another player.

That just isn't so, however....he has never produced quite the level of numbers you are suggesting. Check the history books In other words, the problem isn't just injuries---it's lack of production when he's out there, too.

One man's view: it's a move called 'safe' that is actually just 'a clear reach'. If you draft him in the first round, you are hoping he grows and produces at a level he has not done before---which is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, mind you, if done with that set of assumptions.

In 2009 he went for .281 33 113 100 9 that's pretty close to 1st round value to me.
Then in 2011 in 133 games he goes for .244 31 99 78 3. (he's a career .276 hitter )

Add all of this to the fact he just turned 27, and you start to see why people would invest.

Put his best aggregate season together and you have a top-5 pick. Problem is Longoria hasn't put it all together the same season yet.

if he does it this season, he'll be a consensus top-10 pick next year.

One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.

lewp wrote:One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.

Even with a healthy knee, Votto's power is capped as he does not hit many fly balls and relies on a high HR/FB.

I don't see him running much anymore

If his power is back, that makes him a 25 HR guy with a high average - sounds more like Butler/AGonz than the #5 pick to me.

The only reason he's not lower in my projections is I didn't adjust the SB down. The 9 carries over pre-injury numbers.

Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.

2004 Champs wrote:Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.

For the record, he's been on the field but not 100% healthy. Not saying he would have been a first rounder - just pointing out he's been playing hurt.

I have him as the 45th hitter now so add in a few pitchers and he's 4th/5th round talent.

and btw he will get drafted too early again next year - of course so will Tulowitzki and Kemp