Mastersball Fantasy Forum

Just wondering people's top 12 for this year. I've never had this much trouble coming up with a top 12 ( I mean after miggy braun trout cano I'm struggling ). Just looking for other opinions, really feel like there are a lot of ? marks after the top 4 go off the board. Really feel getting an earlier pick is a bigger advantage this year than most others where I'd rather pick later in the 1st to get a better 2nd round pick. Agree? Disagree?

Top 12 from JBL draft that Todd and I wrote up earlier
R. Braun
M. Cabrera
Trout
Cano
McCutchen
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Bautista
C. Gonzalez
Votto
Longoria

In general, it is a complete and total crap shoot after the top 3 (I'd say top 2 because I feel there is risk with Trout).

I like Cano's reliability and production so I am comfortable with him as early as 3. After that, it is risk versus reward, with Trout's reward being much bigger than his risk, but still risk nonetheless.

It also depends on context - depth of league, frequency of transactions, etc.

I'd want no part of mccutchen or longoria as a 1st round pick. Bautista is a tough one since there is a real chance his wrist injury could sap some of his power or worse. If he's slow out of the gate and lets say puts up .280 29 90 90 or so he's no longer a 1st round pick ( really you just drafted Holliday in rd 1 ). I was surprised that the projections here were bullish on him returning to pre injury production. The fact he is still not at full strength is skipping the WBC, makes me little nervous.

I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?

While it doesn't surprise me he's going that high it won't be to me. I mean a .375 BABIP screams good fortune. If his BA falls to around .290 he's a 2nd round pick. I mean I understand that he's grown as a player but the more you really look at his numbers vs past years....

Year BA BABIP FB% HR/FB
2012 .327 .375 34.3 19.4
2011 .259 .291 41.7 12.2
2010 .286 .311 37.8 8.7

I mean he hit 7% less FB yet hit 7% more HR/FB????? Numbers don't add up sounds like everything broke right for him, plus he plays on a bad team that overacheived. I think he comes back down and while still a great player not early/mid 1st round player in my book. If you take MB projections and decrease his BA down to .290 and touch nothing else he loses $3 in value and he's the 7th ranked OF. For my money I'd rather Ellsbury 2 rounds later and bank on at least +10 more SB. Id rank OF as

1. Braun
2. Trout
3. Kemp
4/5. Bautista / Cargo ( can be flipped )
6/7/8 Granderson/McCutchen/Ellsbury ( can be flipped )

Ellsbury, Granderson has been falling into the third and fourth rounds. I am not saying he is not a great pick here but i think your much better off coming in with a Votto, Tulo, Posey and getting Granderson a round or two later.

In the NFBC draft I am in right now i just got Granderson with pick 46.

In the three drafts i have done so far for 2013 Ellsbury has gone 42, 43, and 32

32? What a maroon. I'd sure like to be in a league with that asstard

Will you still be making fun if his 3rd round pick goes for
.300 20 71 100 45 ??? I mean quite honestly 34 SB seems low if you belive he'll be healthy, which with 600 AB your projecting a full season. Also the person taking Ellsbury at 32 knows full well he won't be there at 59, so if you belive why not? I understand your assuming all the risk and limiting the profit at 32 but I'd rather take my chances with Ellsbury returning 3rd round value than Mccutchen returning top 7 value.

Asstard = me