Using Prior Year Draft Results to Advantage

[tamburgy]

I play in a 20 team, 7x7 league.

The categories are as follows: HR, RBI, R, AVG, OBP, Net SBs, Total Bases + SB for hitting, Net Ws, Net SVs, Hlds, ERA, WHIP, QSs, K/9 for pitching.

Over the past couple years I've bullied hitting and not taken a pitcher until round 6.

I went back and reviewed last year's draft and noticed the following:

Out of the first 5 rounds (100 total picks), there were 13 pitchers taken (10 SP, 3 RP).

Then, in round 6, there were 7 pitchers taken in that round alone (4 SP, 3 RP).

I'm trying to find a way to use this information to my advantage. Should I go along with my prior years' plan and wait on pitching until round 6, or is there a way to use this info to maximize my picks?

One thought I had, is because the categories for pitching are very RP friendly (note, K/9, net wins, etc), perhaps I could draft a top-notch closer as my first pitcher (as oppossed to a top SP) at the end of round 5 (I have pick 17 this year) instead of waiting until the 6th.

Thanks for any help.

[viper]

I'm not going to even try to answer this specific question but ...

I'm going to assume this is a redraft league because anything with keepers would mean no possible co-relation. Those who win and do will tend to draft the same way as long as they keep winning. Losers shake things up. The caveat to this is that most people play multiple leagues. If they play four leagues and have success in three of them, they will draft the same way again in all their leagues regardless of last seasons success or failure.

I am a believer in patterns like you said. The problem is that they change a bit depending on each individuals draft dynamics. Forty drafts will shows patterns but each individual draft will diverge from the overall pattern.

For example, the NFBC patterns for several years has approximately 100 hitters and 50 pitchers taken in the first ten rounds. The top tier of closers typically go around round six with the second tier about round nine. Also the first three rounds tend to have 3-5 SPs taken but no closers. Rounds eight through ten are split equally between hitters and pitchers. But these are multi-draft averages. Your mileage may vary.

[Todd Zola]

While I don't necessarily believe this should be a complete monkey-see, monkey-do game, I do think it is helpful to understand what the consistent challengers do, especially in a redraft format. So one thing I would do is check out the historical roster construct of a couple of the owners you consider to be the strongest to see if there are any patterns, either from the same owner or between different owners.

[viper]

as far as habits go, I always start with four hitters in any snake draft. Of course I have never ever been involved in a massive pitcher run in the first rounds. After round four, there have always been pitchers remaining who I am willing to be my ace. Round five is where I first look to drfat a pitcher based on the draft dynamics.