need help with auction strategy improvements

[daweasle]

OK

I have tried the same thing for like 4-5 yrs in a row and every year I know it's the right thing to do but I still do the same thing next year and I still know it's the right thing to do so I do it again.

but for 4 out the last five years I have not finished in the money. I NEED HELP.

Here's the deal

16 team mixed league. max of 6 keepers no more then $75 total salary
H2H categories:
OFFENSE: R 2B HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP OPS
PITCHING: IP W L SV QS ERA WHIP

so 16 total categories. 9 hitting and 7 pitching

we get 13 hitters, 8 pitchers

So for 4-5 yrs in a row - here's my auction strategy -
every year I pay for stud hitters - usually about 9-10 good hitters and 1-2 nice hitters. then I spend about $30 on all 8 pitchers. (2 good guys at $8-11 each and then 6 random best available guys) oh and I usually punt SB - instead focusing on HIGH OBP hitters who will also get alot of doubles/HR, resulting in a High OPS.

by the all star break I am in 4th 5th or 6th place. By the end of the season I am in 4th 5th or 6th place.

In any case - I need to know how to modify my strategy to win this year.

I was thinking of extreme Stars and Scrubs. with a twist - just not sure what the twist is?? any ideas as to what I need to change>??

[AllstonRockCity]

by the all star break I am in 4th 5th or 6th place. By the end of the season I am in 4th 5th or 6th place.

any ideas as to what I need to change>??

If your in the hunt at the ASB, I don't know that its your auction strategy that needs to change, you obviously setting yourself up well. You need to trade. If its a keeper league, you need to decide what's more important, being good (but not quite good enough) year in year out, OR WINNING for a year or 2 or 3 then rebuilding for a year or 2 or 2. Then repeat the process. Cashing twice and rebuilding twice every 4 years should still net you a profit and get you the glory you're seeking.

So trade away prospects, MinorLeague picks (if any) and cheap up and comers for STUDS. I bet if you look back you'll see that the teams that cashed last year made a significant trade around the ASB. In a keeper league, its not often that you "win" it at your auction.

[Todd Zola]

A few questions...

Where do you generally end up in terms of "points" for the week?

Do you tailor your pitching strategy to focus on particular categories?

Is there an innings minimum?

If you are not going to go the balanced route, and with your split you are not, what you need to do is really focus on particular categories within pitching. You leave yourself less margin of error, but at least on paper improve your chances of winning more than half of the categories in general.

[da_big_kid_94]

Something may be inferred from your post, however I feel I should ask anyway just to be sure - on average, how far into the auction are you making your pitching purchases. I ask because I make an assumption - if you are gettign 9-10 good hitters and 1-2 nice hitters - those aren't the types of names one expects to see mid to late auction - much less in end game. Also, when you say you ae usually in 4th - 6th - what strengths in your lineup have gotten you there? Put another way - are you that high because you're basically maxed out on hitting and you're depending on a mediocre pitching staff to somehow get you into the money?

[daweasle]

regarding myweekly head to head matchup - I usually win 10-6 or 11-5 or sometimes close 9-7, but i win almost every single week. (last year i was like 15-6 in weekly head to head)

so every week i lose saves, i lose SB and i lose losses(by pitchers)

every week I win wins, i win IP, i usually win KKs unless my opponent has dominant pitchers.
I almost always win BB, OPS, OBP I usually win HR and Doubles and RBI

runs is 50/50, era and whip are a coinflip from week to week which i more often then not lose

we do have a minimum innings of 25 inning pitched per week - but i throw out seven or eight starters every week. and some have two starts. I do no relievers.

[daweasle]

weekly head to head standings by year

2009 16-5
2008 14-7
2007 - data not available
2006 15-6

so you can see i always make the head to head playoffs and always fell like i should be a cometitor but in the playoffs i have lost in the first or second round every year for 5-6 years now

[daweasle]

as for when do i take pitchers - i take any #1 pitcher i can get for between 8-11 dollars, twice. and i take any other pitcher who i get crickets on for $1

This is something I try to do - somewhat unsuccessfully but whatever it's been working ok so far:

I rank the top 80 Starting pitchers (16 teams times 5.5 starting pitchers per team)

so through out the draft I always throw out random starting pitchers names. almost every time its my turn to name a player. it will always be a mediocre starting pitcher with a little upside who i expect might go for between $1-3. early in the draft for example I will say Kevin millwood for $2. He's a decent buy at $2. but hopefully someone else will say three and maybe even more - and before you know it - other people are filling their rosters with random mediocre starting pitching at twice the players value.

meanwhile - I get stuck with a handful of pitchers at $1-2 who I wanted for $1-2 instead of waiting till the end and having to call out whose left over in stead of the low priced guys I really wanted. I know going into the draft my plan is to go after 8 cheap starting pitchers so this plan usually works for me.

Once I start getting later in the draft i look over the SP's who are left and target a handful who I can bid up to $8-11 and try to get one or two of those once i feel comfortable.

(I always bid up ACES to $18-20, bid up AJ burnett types to $15 or so, and bid up chris young/rich harden/ben sheets/type injury prone guys to like 10-12 bucks)

that way if anyone goes below value i get them but i never pay even close to value for a pitcher unless its a $1 guy. during the season I might add and drop 10-12 pitchers (no streaming allowed due to max of 25 free agents moves allowed for the whole season including offense and defense players, and no bench no reserve no minors)

its a shallow league and alot of decent pitchers are available on the wire

[da_big_kid_94]

You sir, are the Colts, to an extent ...but with much less roster talent. The end of the season in H2H is more important than the opening or mid game. Your strategy is sound for a roto or fantasy environ, but you are not built for the playoffs, and that is where the money is. You need all of your top pitchers to not only perform at peak (and that will have to assume they are playing on teams that still have something to play for), but you need your $1 guys to perform at an above cost level. And then you have to hope your stiffs only get one start and your stars get two in certain weeks. You are in feast or famine mode at the most critical time of the year. And there may be "decent" pitchers on the wire - but not necessarily at the time you need them. How comfortable do you feel about the waiver wire being possibly the only source of salvation you may have - especially when you go in punting two categories? Your own comment; "I get stuck with a handful of pitchers at $1-$2". You may be talking about how other are filling their rosters .. but if this is how you express it, how are you filling yours?

[Hambowen]

You must have too much in certain categories. In the categories you always win is it not even close every week? If that is the case you need to spread your investment around.

Also if you are spending that much money on hitting then why would you punt any hitting category? The high level talent you are getting must get you a decent amount of sb's considering how many studs are 20-20 type of guys. Being competitive in sb's probably would not cost you much.


How much do closers go for in this league? Does anyone go extreme reliever strategy trying to win era/whip, losses, and saves? Based on your answer of cost of closers I may think that could be decent strat.

Also in the playoffs is there a trend of what cats you are winning and losing?

[daweasle]

Well, in regards to - does anyone go with extreme relievers and such.....some folks try that route, and it works ok - except that you must have a minimum of 20 IP for the week, so every pitcher you have must average at least 2-3 innings. (8 pitchers on roster with no bench and no reserves)

I would like to work this year on a plan something like this:
2-3 STUD pitchers (such as - sabathia, cliff lee, etc type)

then add in 3 closers and add in 2 middle relievers who I'd probably get for a buck

[daweasle]

Being competitive in sb's probably would not cost you much.

the only way this sometimes can hurt you is if you get a guy who value is based solely on his SB (like juan pierre) his OPS and lack of doubles and that type of stuff can hurt your team by not providing offensive support.