Mastersball Fantasy Forum

lawr

if garrett anderson gets a deal, dye gets a deal. and winds up with 400 abs.

lawr

u r correct hambowen, about profit. but, i would think in a nine-team league, longoria would fetcth $40-45 bucks. i guess the barometer would be to ask garveyfan how much sizemore, arod, and crawford went for last year (or nominally: not sure if this is a new league, or if garv is just new to the le...

lawr

if we could only clone parts of harden and bedard, we would have two great bods and two great arms and the same risk as with four.

lawr

someone will sign him. 34 homers two years ago and 27 last year. He is only 35, and has 161 dingers over the last five years? and, his average took a dip last year, but his obp and slugging were fairly steady with the past five years. someone will pay him, and then will want him to play for what the...

lawr

a nine team AL only is still pretty shallow, and, well, in that context longoria, if he simply stays steady, rather than improves (which is more likely) makes him a pretty good deal. even at $36.

lock him up.

lawr

wow. you guys really truly do all that? i have never even heard of a categorical tier sheet. well, unless you are talking kleenex, but then it is more of a tear sheet.

but really, you guys make lists like that?

lawr

i am writing this without having seen any other posts previously written. i will go back and look at them, but, i wanted to write this one in a vacuum. i like slowey a lot. and, well, if you have ever had any kind of surgery, you have to know how long it takes to totally recover. and, i mean totally...

lawr

mike and cory are great guys, and, mike is among the best fantasy players i know. jason grey and trace wood top that list. mike is right up there. swear.

and cory is no slouch.

tell em i said hi and am looking forward to lunch end of the month.

lawr

Well, Ryan pretty well described me. Baseball cards. Pick up baseball every chance we had. Played Cadaco, then BLM, then APBA, then Strat (still do) and then moved onto roto/fantasy. Though in truth I went back to Strat. And, I also collected football cards and loved football, but it was not the sam...

lawr

knock yourselves out... c-landon powell c-dioner navarro 1b-justin morneau 2b-ian kinsler 3b-gordon beckham ss-troy tulowitzki mi-cliff pennington ci-aubrey huff of-shane victorino of-colby rasmus of-juan rivera of-kyle blanks of-ryan sweeney ut-jack cust (no way i let him have a glove in this life)...

lawr

perry has it pretty well nailed. although this guy looks like jason giambi. at least his minor league numbers do so far, so if they can translate. and, i think he will indeed start the year in sacto, and be brought up depending upon how the team does (they would wanna stall off engaging his major le...

lawr

to answer the less technical aspect, the greater risk is in the potential stat falloff. of course that directly reflects the dollare amount paid, but, both these guys are pretty good keepers and investments over the next few years.

lawr

i really would seriously think about crawford, though i more than appreciate having the bejesus scared out of you. first year i played i got tom brunansky for like $15, a really good value, and then he got swapped to the cards and i got zip. i still finished in the money, but it was like getting a b...

lawr

fyi, i am a presenter at Ron's first pitch, and pasko will be in attendence. so, we will likely be out of circulation from around 10:30 PT till 4 or so this afternoon.

lawr

i have to admit i do not know anything about the study, and though i do pay some attention to how brittle a given player (ian kinsler, milton bradley) might be, for the most part if a pitcher or player has not exhibited injury signs, i try not to worry about it. (as noted, i worry about everyone get...

lawr

todd is correct. it falls into the "many ways to skin a cat-egory." ie, a rotation with sabbathia, gutherie, sanchez, pettite, cahill, and shields could work, with a clear #1, and most of the guys being reasonably priced not named sabbathia. but, a rotation of buehrle, shields, santana (er...

lawr

hmm. i wrote this at 5 am this morning, but, well, i guess it did not post.... i think it is kind of silly to define pitchers in that context. to be successful a starter generally needs two things: three pitches, and the ability to hit at least 90 mph with a fastball. just like a closer really only ...

lawr

Looks like the web cast might start a bit earlier.

lawr

hey all. sorry, but no picks from me after 7pm, pacific time, tonight. but, if you are an insomniac, or are in westeran europe, hawaii, or maybe even parts of asia, you can see my band, the biletones, playing live at the following url: http://mediasource.expression.edu/liveCast.htm we hit the stage ...

lawr

dale-

i will have a satellite team as i am partnering with todd on a couple of others. but...that is too many teams for me. however, i was going to give that slot to one of our writers, so....might have a gunieua pig there.

lawr

true, but then they are not selling high. the thing is to be successful--and winning any year, no matter the league is tough--you have to be able to let go of hoarding all the cheap pieces you have. in tout last year i swapped sabbathia in august for howie kendrick and curtis granderson. kendrick wa...

lawr

first thx. and, exaclty. when i first started theorizing this, i realized success at a young age was a key indicator. so, instead of weighing the ultimate factor on a high number, i use the age as a base, and geared the remaining formulas down (eg, the lower the skill set rating, the better) and did...

lawr

well, i don't really care about projections any more than i care about ADP. i mean, i can look at a player's age, minor league history, overall experience, and major league experience and pretty much deduce whether or not that guy has maxed out his skill set in terms of production. obviously i am wr...

lawr

well, zobrist did show signs of the breakout towards the end of '08. the only think is so did ryan shealy. but, hill and lind were definitely on the breakout list of most of the "experts" i know. the bbhq first pitch actually pointed to lind being a 30-plus homer guy last february. the thi...

lawr

i think you are looking for sleepers, though.

those are guys who are undervalued, or overlooked, right?

i told todd this morning two of the guys i like are cliff pennington and landon powell.

lawr

perry makes the most valid point of all... we should be a sounding board, but, it is your team. you get to pretend you are billy beane, and how you want to concoct. ADPs and projections and statistical bases are all nice tools, but essentially you need to figure the path, and try to be fearless abou...

lawr

Z is correct in that the league is shallow, and rebuilding kind of becomes moot.

but, with my model, that gives you steals and ideally some youthful bargains. h

z is also right there will be cheap bargains at the end, so....that means you can spend $50 on the hanleys or arods or alberts not frozen.

lawr

well, the words rebuilding pop into my head. but, i actually enjoy that process. but, you do have some stuff to work with. for sure i would keep morgan, borbon, and feliz. they are all priced right, and they are potentially guys you could deal, depending upon, for solid value (you might even be able...

lawr

and, i always get, "where is so and so." but, yep, if one did not play as noted in the minors, one does not get rated. and, this is definitely weighted towards success, early. the idea is to seek out the killer guys coming out of A or AA at an early age and get them before they become bust...

lawr

i am definitely in the "make this trade before the guy realizes exactly what he offered school."

lawr

mea culpa.

you are collectively correct.

i assumed by the 12-team snake mixed that there were no salaries, and everyone could freeze a certain number.

standing corrected, agree with z.

lawr

rotodog is totally right. screw fowler. keep cano/jeter and wainwright. in fact, keeping all three and dropping carlos (and i like carlos and think he will do well, but, well, he is an outfielder and there will be lots of em in your draft) is ultimately would i would do.

lawr

when i first started playing at a visibly competitive level (tout, CBS experts, stuff like that) the guys in my home league wanted to know what the difference was. they all claimed our local league was very competitive and any of the guys could indeed play at any level. which was not exactly true. i...

lawr

interesting, z. cos that is the first thing i went for. "wow, six team AL only? that means kurt suzuki either costs $18 or $3." i would be inclined to keep the sixth "best," period. mauer arod dped dj miggy lind choo/cruz (choo first, but either) there will be lots of players and...

lawr

figuring you mean kendry, i like him a lot. and, offering him for lee is a pretty good offer in my world.

lawr

oh, i think he is a top tier pitcher, but that is kind of irrelevent. you are the one dealing, and you are the one with the perceptions of value and worth, of what you want for him. and, he is not quite CC or Halladay or Lincecum, but right below. i am just suggesting that if you think he is of valu...

lawr

i think if you are going to trade value for value, if lee is a top tier pitcher in your view, at a potential bargain, then a fair offer is a top tier hitter at a potential bargain price. i understand you want to get the max for the minimun in making a trade (and i am not suggesting you are trying to...

lawr

totally agreed, although again, spending much more than $20 pushes the limit. but, that is one of the advantages of the auction, don't you think? targets and parameters are pretty much the same as with a draft, but, the variables to assembling the puzzle pieces that make up a team are so varied with...

lawr

i love dped. i had him two years ago, seriously undervalued and he delivered. that said, i don't think he really is a top three pick, because he has to always nail every category as he did in 2008 to get there. he does not have 30 homer or steal capabilities, and that means you are principly draftin...

lawr

i confess that i am much stronger at auctions than drafts. but, there are a lot more variables, and the opportunity for control in an auction that are not present in a straight snake draft. that said, i also believe it is pretty hard to blow it the first three rounds. and, while arod or albert might...

lawr

boy, talk about the thread that would not go away... and, i am certainly one who believes in both freedom of speech and expression. and, some modicum of trash talk, depending upon context, is one thing. i am certain none of my mates at MB would ever have an issue with being called to task on words w...

lawr

agreed. it is a pleasure to interact with folks who have broad and well rounded points of refernce...kudos (i was gonna write seomthing but was trying not to go overkill on this thread). the reference made me seriously smile!!

lawr

u r correct shift6. courtesy is always appropriate. if i crossed that line, i apologize.

and, as todd said, there is history. and, as todd said, there is a lot going on to discuss in the baseball world, for sure. let's focus on that.

lawr

hasn't pitched since 2007 at the show, and was not very good then. at best he is a reserve pick in a very very deep league. at best.

lawr

u know walla walla, it is just a game, and the sub text of your "smack talk" suggests you take it a lot more seriously than you admit. if you did not, you would not tag your signature with leagues you have (always the sign of an insecure human, to follow their name with phd or esq or some ...

lawr

hmm. i am with z. my first question is always, why are you trading? and, it is not like your pitching is that strong. i think the odds you can get another bruce are greater than another johnson. that said, it is always a crap shoot, but i still see this as trading for the sake of trading and that is...

lawr

randy is funny. since i score the giants, i see him a lot, and it is kind of a shame that the giants had him and rowand in the same of without a dominant bat. think about the same pair with bonds. deadly. but, they are basically the same guy (rowand and winn) and collectively they don't produce enou...

lawr

if i am reading this right, i would keep tulo, anderson, pablo, hanson, and choo. that is a terrific core of good young players who in a shallow league like yours would go for more. i would then get 2-3 bangers and be willing to spend $50 on each for the year, and back fill the rest with good $1 eve...

lawr

the heavy on the lefties point is really well taken. imagine the twins with all those southpaws facing the a's who have four lefty starters. i do think it will be tough for thome to hit 600, though. just like tough for vizquel to get 3000 hits. possible. rooting for them. would bet against both. tha...

lawr

i am not thinking of thome as a starter, but as a good left handed bench and insurance policy. i mean, if you need a base runner late in the game, who better? and, he can jack it out. i see 250 ab's. and kubel and cuddy still in the of, and morneau still at first. i trust the twins a lot. they do th...

lawr

i immediately thought of harden as well. as he is somewhat comparable. though sheets, if you look at him carefully, has not delivered in the same way, being barely a .500 pitcher with 84 or so wins and an ERA around 4 for his career. by contrast harden's totals waste them. that said, each can be dom...

lawr

could not agree (be more puzzled) more, re matthews. i never even trusted this one good year (ahem, enhanced that is). but, years ago, i remember posting in an email thread in our then newsletter, i think between chris maher and trace wood that was a very funny "point/counterpoint" discuss...

lawr

chuckle. i hardly ever use that stat, save in strat.

but, i saw neftali's debut and he was deadly. with a capital DEAD. check out my comment in our magazine.

he complete rocks.

lawr

i am with todd.

all else being equal, posada is old enough that a drop off due to age would not be a shock, while naps is right in the mainstream of a good career that looks pretty steady to me.

he is simply a better gamble to me.

lawr

even as an NL, which i assume, one team is huge like that. z is totally right. keep.

lawr

agreed again, in that those players--butler, dejesus--are usually a little undervalued. that should make grienke interesting in the coming year. but,they also have a hard time assembling a dominant year. grienke as the example you cited. what would his totals be like were he a yankee or dodger though?

lawr

agreed across the board. and, for sure, filling a third or fourth outfield slot with a david dejesus is just fine, because he is pretty consistant irrespective of who is around them. but, i always look to cop starters from as many contending teams as i can simply because they play better with that t...

lawr

well, i would go royals and bucs too, followed by houston. then baltimore to some degree, although they seem to be getting it together. their biggest issue is their division. i think nothing exemplifies the royals schizo approach more than mike jacobs. i never understood why they traded for him with...

lawr

i would probably drop or trade slowey, not that i don't like him, but he is coming back from major surgery and even if he is ready opening day, well, it takes a good year to get back into the groove post surgical. i really like carlos, despite all the yaks all around. because he is only 28. one of t...

lawr

that is a very solid lineup, but, with 14 teams mixed, it is a little shallow, so it is hard to tell overall how you match up.

but, very good production across the board, and as noted, great starting pitching.

lawr

Wow. I sat next to his parents (with Todd and JP and Brian, I believe) at the AFL All Star Game last November, and Desme shone. His parents were clearly proud of their son, laughing when I noted he needed to learn to throw to the cutoff man (Desme nailed a guy at the plate with a great throw from le...

lawr

well, i want to love upton, but he has disappointed the most. i suppose he has the most upside, but i would certainly keep hill, and i would bet granderson will excel in pinstripes. but, among them, i would bet upton might also be the most interesting to swap, too. of the three, though, i would try ...

lawr

hey all- mea culpa. but, as beaver cleaver would say, "it was on account of an accident." i usually write these days on my laptop using my wi fi. and, sometimes the connection drops. i guess i saved and the system connection was lost. i got back in and finished, but i guess shutting down a...

lawr

i wish i could remember who i spoke to at spring training ten years ago, but, it was a prospect with the rockies, and he was highly touted. and, it was his first spring and i asked him what it was like, and he said tough. i asked why and he said in college things were so different. almost like being...

lawr

i think you league's reaction says it all. for, when the league adjusts and follows your lead, even if it is a correct path (no clue, but the plan looks good to me and you should be strong again) well you are doing something right. wagging the league.

nice.

lawr

well, i think most of those guys will improve upon last year. but, the thing to remember is it is not hit or miss with them. the key is getting them undervalued and that will be possible because they both should improve, and people tend to remember last year as opposed three years ago. i am big on r...

lawr

true dat, but, that is why he is lord zola!

lawr

i don't think you burst any bubble there. i am, if nothing else, fairly pragmatic. and, clark played the game, so i can see his indignation in a different context. i think, as with the black sox, or the greenies era, or the pirates coke years, speculation will always hover over the sluggers of the l...

lawr

i gotta tell you nate, laroche gets very little respect, and he should as he has averaged .274-26-91 over his six seasons. that is better say than lyle overbay, and is very consistant. i also gotta tell you that for the most part i pay little attention to ball park factors in straight roto ball. i s...

lawr

funny, cos the two pitchers i have used as agony and ecstasy examples of strasburg are koufax, who became the real thing, and clyde. it took koufax five years to fully get the hang of the majors with no minor league experience, and clyde, who likewise debuted in the majors, was out of the game five ...

lawr

well, if it is really the best of the best, then the membership goes down. which i suppose is ok, but, i don't know if any of you have ever been to cooperstown (i have, to inductions, twice), but purists or not, it is about marketing. in the area of cooperstown, there are a LOT of other HOFs, includ...

lawr

let me add one more thought in general to keepers that todd touches on. and, for me this is as basic a part of overall strategy as anything. but, for every keeper, there is the basic is he a value or not question. if the answer is no, then releasing that player becomes rhetorical. but, the bottom li...

lawr

hmm. well, at least it is kind of like having a quarterback controversy. i think it is ok to keep five outfielders if you can keep the utility spot open. in fact, i always try to keep my utility spot free as long as possible because it does offer that flexibility. the obvious (and i suppose rhetoric...

lawr

rock city-

no argument with your logic and thoughts here. save ervin. i would let him go. if you get him back at $14, cool a rama. if not, fine. someone else can take the risk.

my two cents.

lawr

lawr

i am totally down with santo being in, as his numbers are not far off from evans or evans (or kaat, morris, bert n tj). alomar essentially redefined the position. the only real bad issue he had was when an umpire mocked his puported sexual preference, and robby spat in anger. bad move. but, hey, the...

lawr

yep, branyan is an FA. but, i would also guess based upon his history that the market will be lean for him (think of poor adam dunn who gets no respect). doesn't matter to me, though. i don't like branyan under any circumstances. i want someone to spend $17 on him based solely upon last year. i like...

lawr

i love kotchman on that team. suits him well. lopez stays at second. branyan becomes a dh, ideally. they need some parts, for sure, but, kotchman is a great fit. i see him, going into his peak years, with mark grace/keith hernandez skills and numbers. .290-13-90 and as jp noted, great defense. note ...

lawr

ugh. Andre Dawson? i agree re Alomar, and also not only Blyleven, but Jack Morris, Tommy John, and Jim Kaat are more than worthy of consideration. but, back to Andre. compare him to two guys i think are seriously overlooked, especially in context to Dawson (and this does not count Buckner and Al Oli...

lawr

ok- i gotta start with i like the team you have. my tout al team last year had arod, kubel, and cuddyer and they all paid off handsomely for me. but, if i was gonna freeze four, they would be: ellsbury arod grienke votto one of the things you did--and i am guessing it was conscious, and it was somet...

lawr

you know major leaguer, i don't see this as such a remarkable offer. you are ok with broxton at his price. wilson is more, and essentially you should be able to pick up maybin or rasmus during your auction at near what their current salaries are. i always want to know why someone wants to make a tra...

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