Inflation Question

[aburt19]

I was wondering about inflation in a keeper league and whether to apply it on an overall basis or to apply the inflation
rates of pitchers and hitters separately. Applying the inflation rate separately is probably the most accurate. But I don't
think that most owners calculate the inflation rates separately. If the inflation rate for hitters is 35% and the inflation rate
for pitchers is only 10%, I obviously would value a $30 hitter (pre inflation) at about $40, while another owner might value
him at a much lesser rate based on an overall inflation rate of say 22% (just a example), where everyone else would value
that player at $36. If I can get him for $37 and move the $3 over to pitching, I'm okay. But by the same token, I will be
hard pressed to purchase pitchers at what I consider value because a $20 pitcher would be valued by me at $22 and
valued by all other owners at $24.

Does it really make a difference if I am calculating inflation separately and the other owners are using a combined rate,
assuming those rates are markedly different?

[AllstonRockCity]

I've been calculating the overall inflation rate and using the CVRC to apply it to the top level talent and been quite happy with the results.

Of course I view even the inflated numbers the way I do speed limit signs. They're not the maximum (as intended) but to me, more of the suggested minimum. I'm sure everyone's been stuck behind someone going 34 in a 35 and we can't believe how slow they're going. "they're not even going the speed limit" we'll say. Hence the 'limit' is the suggested minimum.

But I live in Mass, so factor that in.

[Todd Zola]

The short answer is separately.

The longer answer is you are in danger of becoming too married to a number at the likely demise of your ability to construct a competitive team.

The following is just one man's not so humble opinion....

The main problem with inflation calculations is it assumes a linear application across the entire distribution of values.

But a $1 player is still a $1 player.

You can say this for the bulk of the end game.

A $3 player is a $1 player put on the table by an owner that wants him, was taken to $2 by someone else and was brought to $3 by the original owner.

A $2 player is someone put on the table for $1 that someone else wanted and the original owner did not want (or could not) go to $3.

A typical league has about $100-$130 worth of players that go from $1 - $3. This is true in a keeper league as well, maybe even more so as great keeper lists lead to more stars and scrubs. The main point is there is depending on the initial inflation rate, the inflated cost of these players would be in the neighborhood of $50 more. Where does this $50 go? To the top level, usually anyway. A $40 player with 25% inflation is now $50 using the linear calculation. I bet he goes for $55 or so in most keeper leagues.

Every year, I am asked how to make the CVRC handle this. And while I "can", I say the same thing I said above -- WHO CARES.

What is important is not getting caught up in the value and making it a red light, green light entity.

What is important is figuring out what kind of stats you want to leave the auction with in order to compete in your league, based on your keeper list, league history and the keeper lists of the owners also likely to compete.

They you look at the available player pool and figure out as many combinations as you can that will get you what you need. I'm not talking specific players, more so "one from the top group, two from the middle group and the rest cheap, but if the top group is way to expensive, then four from the middle group" etc.

Then leave it up to your instincts as the auction progresses to determine the best tact to buy what you need based on the dynamics of what is happening.

Maybe it sucks that in my not so humble opinion, I am not willing to help you out by telling you exactly how to put a number on it. Instead I am suggesting you rely on your own intuition. This is tough to deal with for many that are so hooked on value. I know -- because for the longest time I resembled that remark. But TRUST me, you are much better off knowing the player pools (hit and pitch) inside and out, knowing what you need and a few different paths to get it than being an Excel whiz and able to determine an inflated dollar value.

[aburt19]

A typical league has about $100-$130 worth of players that go from $1 - $3. This is true in a keeper league as well, maybe even more so as great keeper lists lead to more stars and scrubs. The main point is there is depending on the initial inflation rate, the inflated cost of these players would be in the neighborhood of $50 more. Where does this $50 go? To the top level, usually anyway. A $40 player with 25% inflation is now $50 using the linear calculation. I bet he goes for $55 or so in most keeper leagues.

What is important is figuring out what kind of stats you want to leave the auction with in order to compete in your league, based on your keeper list, league history and the keeper lists of the owners also likely to compete.

They you look at the available player pool and figure out as many combinations as you can that will get you what you need. I'm not talking specific players, more so "one from the top group, two from the middle group and the rest cheap, but if the top group is way to expensive, then four from the middle group" etc.

Then leave it up to your instincts as the auction progresses to determine the best tact to buy what you need based on the dynamics of what is happening.

Maybe it sucks that in my not so humble opinion, I am not willing to help you out by telling you exactly how to put a number on it. Instead I am suggesting you rely on your own intuition. This is tough to deal with for many that are so hooked on value. I know -- because for the longest time I resembled that remark. But TRUST me, you are much better off knowing the player pools (hit and pitch) inside and out, knowing what you need and a few different paths to get it than being an Excel whiz and able to determine an inflated dollar value.

I agree in theory with the comments. But I still have a problem with "but if the top group is too expensive, then four
from the middle group". How do you define too expensive? In the earlier example of a $40 player going for $55 instead of
$50 in a 25% inflation environment, at what point does too expensive kick in, $55, $57, $60, etc? It becomes even
more of a question if you figure that a $20 player is in all actuality a $18-$22 range player.

In very few cases does a $1-$3 player gain from an inflation scenario with less than 33% inflation. So while the group,
in theory increases in value, very seldom does that translate into an increase in those players. So I don't think that
factors in as much with an establlished league.

[Todd Zola]

I agree in theory with the comments. But I still have a problem with "but if the top group is too expensive, then four
from the middle group". How do you define too expensive? In the earlier example of a $40 player going for $55 instead of
$50 in a 25% inflation environment, at what point does too expensive kick in, $55, $57, $60, etc?

This is pretty much my point. The is no set in stone answer. It is really up to your instincts and intuition. At what point do you feel nervous you will not have enough budget left to buy the rest of what you need. There is no way to quantify that exact number. Something I do, especially if I have an early toss in the first round is try to buy some of that "something else" early,

1. to give me an idea of what players of that ilk will cost
2. to have some of the stats I need, making it easier to figure out what I have left to buy
3. to have spent some money, so I better know how much I have to spend

Obviously, you are prety much screwed if the first player is say Pujols. The raw value is say 45. Linear inflation is say 20% so that is 54-55. Do you stop at 55? Do you stop at 60 figuring you can make up "overspending" by 10? 65? Problem is you have no info from the present auction on which to base your decision. This is where the instincts come in. What happened last year? How much did a "$20" player go for?

It becomes even more of a question if you figure that a $20 player is in all actuality a $18-$22 range player.

I think it becomes LESS of a question. To me, this is not a $20 ballplayer. That $20 comes from determining his contributions to the overall pool in a vacuum. You are no longer in a vacuum. You have some stats. Others have stats. There are only a certain amount of stats left to buy. He is not a $20 player -- if you can buy him for $28 and STILL have enough to buy what else you need, he is a $28 player. Again, people want a CVRC to do this for them -- and maybe we can come up with something (we can). But also again, it gets us too married to a number and not the big picture. What if the CVRC said "28". Would you stop? Would you go to 29? Would you say to yourself "if i go 30, i will have to get lucky with a waiver pickup or an end gamer needs to step up because I am going to fall short of my goals, but I think I can find that diamond in the rough, I have found one every year." To me, if you are going to use this thinking anyway, I don't even want the "28" in the first place.

I know the common comeback is "Well, I would feel more comfortable if I at least had a ballpark amount." You do. trust your instincts. The ballpark amount is exactly what you think it is, you don't need some fancy excel code to verify or confirm it.

In very few cases does a $1-$3 player gain from an inflation scenario with less than 33% inflation. So while the group,
in theory increases in value, very seldom does that translate into an increase in those players. So I don't think that
factors in as much with an establlished league.

Maybe I am misunderstanding, but this is exactly my point. But in theory, the linear application is applied to this group, but as you say, it is not realized. But it is a sum-zero economy. That money has to go somewhere. It goes to the rest of the players, usually the top tier.

Also, keep in mind that some owners likely are working with crappy keeper lists and are buying players just to trade for future help. They don't care about buying within a properly calculated inflated value. They want a commodity to trade so they can compete next season.

And others feel they have such a great keeper list, they can way overspend. They don't stop at "55" above. They have great keepers and freaking want Pujols. At the end, they wind up giving back all their built in profit.

Point is, no one can write an algorithm to account for this. So instead of trying, or even getting ballpark, I prefer to spend my time trying to find players that will perform better or worse than everyone else.

[cwk1963]

I have a confession to make...I used to be one of those players who cubby-holed myself into a specific list of players (I HAD to have whoever the Albert Pujols or Arod of the day was). It was while with this site that I became a much more refined player and now view players as merely a name that provides stats and that other names in a valuation range will provide the same kind of stats. At the same time, I evolved to the point I am now where values are not a set number but a range.

Having said that, I prefer auctions because to me there is more strategy involved in the auction itself as opposed to a draft. In a draft, you can only take who's available when it's your turn. In an auction, you have every player available to you as long as you have a spot to put them and the money to buy them. Part of the strategy of the auction is knowing how to bid; how high you are willing to go on particular players as well as when to bring up certain players. This has been said many times before - the most important thing (besides knowing the player pool) is to know your league. You know there's someone who will be willing to go 60 on Pujols when the raw value is 45. How high are you willing to go? How does the bidding go from 45 - 60? Is it fast and without hesitation? How many players are involved? Is the bidding going by ones? Does is slow down considerably at 50? Based on this info, you might be able to grab him by making a jump bid from 50 to let's say 53 or 54 as it starts to slow down to going once...going twice...

I've found a good thing to do to get an advantage is to change things up. Going into last year's auction, there were a lot of big names available - Papelbon, Jose Reyes, Johann, Utley, CC, Arod, Prince, Wright, Hanley, Beckett, Hamels, Soriano, Beltran, Crawford, you get the idea. Closers - especially the top tier - go way over value in this league. Knowing this, I got what I consider the bargain of the auction by throwing out Mariano as the first name of the auction. I got him for $24. Papelbon went for 37, Johann for 41, Jose Reyes, Wright and Hanley went for 47, 46 and 47 respectively.

The bottom line of this is to not worry about a specific number. Let the auction tell you when and where to spend and not to spend. As Todd said, use your instincts. If you know the pool and know your league and their tendencies, you will be fine without a set ceiling on a specific player.

I hope this was not too convoluted as I was on a conference call while writing it .

[Hambowen]

Somewhere on this forum there is a long discussion about this.

I outlined in that thread how I always take the inflation $'s and apply it to the top tiered talent. It has just always been the case that all that "extra" money goes towards the top tiered talent in my auction leagues.

The other thing I talked about is how I look at past auctions and see how many players usually go for $1 and then look at the bottom of my projections and change that number of players to $1. Then take all of that extra $ value and also put it into the top tier talent. This gets me very close to what players actually go for at the top so you can decide before the draft who you will want at what prices. Will try to find last years results to give some examples.

Anyways the benefit of this is you can account for draft inflation before the draft and better use the dollars on higher end talent. This is not a big risk because you know at the end of the draft you will get good value in $1 players that you have valued in the $3-5 range.

Last years thread turned into a discussion of $1 player theory. Hope i did not just ruin this thread.

[viper]

The $1 player idea will be a thread I start in a few weeks when even more people are active