What Would You Do?

[cwk1963]

16 team mixed 5x5 (HR, R, RBI, SB, BA, ERA, WHIP, W, SB, K/9) roto with standard 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Inflation historically runs 28%. Up to 10 can be kept. My choices:

C - Barajas 10, Laird 2
CI - Youkilis 16, Gordon 15, Tex 35, Adam LaRoche 14
MI - Scutaro 10, O. Cabrera 13, Matsui 5, Phillips 27
OF - Hawpe 20, Ibanez 10, Soriano 43, Venable 10, Delmon Young 15, Eric Patterson 5
DH - Hafner 25
P - Burnett 22, De La Rosa 7, Garland 11, Liriano 13, Peavy 33, Johan Santana 50, Wade 7, Wood 11, Gallardo 15

I have my thoughts; would like to hear yours.

[bigjonempire]

C - Laird 2
CI - Youkilis 16, Tex 35
MI -
OF - Ibanez 10, Soriano 43
DH -
P - Burnett 22, Liriano 13, Wade 7, Wood 11, Gallardo 15

[Todd Zola]

C - Laird 2
CI - Youkilis 16, Gordon 15, Tex 35
MI - O. Cabrera 13, Phillips 27
OF - Ibanez 10, Soriano 43
DH -
P - Liriano 13, Wood 11, Gallardo 15

Would decide between Gordon, OCab and Soriano for the 10th

[cwk1963]

Let me post my choices and reasons:

Laird 2 - As Todd has said in his Blogs, the wasteland of catchers after the top level is abyssmal. While Laird certainly won't be confused with Vmart, Mauer, Martin or McCann I think he will improve with a regular role. Don't think I can go wrong for $2.

Youkilis 16 - Has shown steady improvement and I think he kicks it up one more notch this year.

Tex 35 - Steady as they get. Pencil in the production with, hopefully, a bit of an uptick in HR from Yankee Stadium.

Gordon 15 - I was tossing this over in my mind between Gordon and LaRoche. I thought LaRoche was the more proven guy but decided to go with Gordon's 'upside' and the handful of SB he should get.

O Cabrera 13 - Was actually toying with the idea of saving $8 and going with Matsui who, at $5, would be a good SB producer/dollar IF he stayed on the field. I like the fact that his BA has risen each of the past 3 years but decided to go with Cabrera's much better track record and ability to stay healthy.

Ibanez 10 - Ever since he's gotten a regular gig with KC he's produced (actually, he's been very unheralded) and has continued that with his 2nd tour of Seattle. Even though he's getting a little long in the tooth (he'll be 37 before the ASB) he's a workout fanatic. I think the move to Philly and that bandbox will prove to be a godsend and he will have a bit of an uptick in production.

Burnett 22 - Some people are worried about a regression but I'm not one of them. I've heard Brad Arnsberg talking about him on MLB on XM and he was saying how much Burnett's matured pitching behind Doc. I hope so. He pitched great against the AL East contendors and I think he can do the same for the Yankees.

Liriano 13 - Electric stuff and I expect another step forward after TJS.

Wood 11 - Cheap as far as closers go in this league. He's proven he can do the job and, more importantly, stay off the DL for the majority of the season. I like the Indians to bounce back this year and Wood could save 35 - 40 (although I know all the stars would have to line up exactly). If I'm not mistaken, Wood is a fly ball pitcher and if so would benefit from playing in Progressive Field and won't have Alfonso The Butcher in his OF anymore.

Gallardo 15 - Another guy with electric stuff. A little pricey but I think (hope) he'll earn it. Grouped with the other 3 pitchers above and that gives me a K/9 darn close to 9.0 which is a very nice start.

[cwk1963]

C - Laird 2
CI - Youkilis 16, Gordon 15, Tex 35
MI - O. Cabrera 13, Phillips 27
OF - Ibanez 10, Soriano 43
DH -
P - Liriano 13, Wood 11, Gallardo 15

Would decide between Gordon, OCab and Soriano for the 10th

Todd, we pretty much agree but I'm interested in your reasonings for Phillips 27 and Soriano 43. I figure I could get either of them back at worst fairly close to those prices. I guess you're not on the Burnett maturity/turn a corner train?

[Todd Zola]

I talk a lot about Phillips in the blog entries, in a 16-team league, I think he is an early to mid 2nd rounder thus justifies the $27 salary. A lot of last season was bad luck and not bad playing.

With Burnett, it has more to do with my experience in this size of league and I feel you will either get a better pitcher than Burnett at $22 or a pitcher of Burnett's caliber for less than $22, whichever way you want to look at it.

The 2nd tier of starting pitching is PLUSH.

[cwk1963]

I talk a lot about Phillips in the blog entries, in a 16-team league, I think he is an early to mid 2nd rounder thus justifies the $27 salary. A lot of last season was bad luck and not bad playing.

With Burnett, it has more to do with my experience in this size of league and I feel you will either get a better pitcher than Burnett at $22 or a pitcher of Burnett's caliber for less than $22, whichever way you want to look at it.

The 2nd tier of starting pitching is PLUSH.

I like Phillips. Really, I do. I agree that last season was bad luck but do you think I'm putting too much into people just looking at the surface stats and not the underlying reasons (not to mention the broken finger) and that will deflate his value enough to be re-gotten for less than $27?

I'm looking forward to your pitcher projections/rankings/tiers to see who those guys might be in the 2nd tier. Any surprises that will stand out this year by taking a quantum leap forward?

[Todd Zola]

I like Phillips. Really, I do. I agree that last season was bad luck but do you think I'm putting too much into people just looking at the surface stats and not the underlying reasons (not to mention the broken finger) and that will deflate his value enough to be re-gotten for less than $27?

This is a REALLY, REALLY good question and a perfect example of why everyone should KNOW THEIR OWN LEAGUE and apply the OPINIONS that we provide in context with their league.

In the blog, it is obvious I am high on Phillips. It is pretty well known I play in several "NFBC" style leagues. In early NFBC style mocks that I am not in, Phillips is still going in the neighborhood I am taking him, so I am using that as my reference.

When I lurk on other sites and see other rankings, he is significantly further down on people's lists.

I am not making an editorial judgment and claiming someone is right and someone is wrong (though I think we're right ). The more relevant point is if your league historically shuns the disappointments from last season, and you feel last year's bum (Gene McCaffrey term) will bounce back, that is a nice source of potential profit.

I'm looking forward to your pitcher projections/rankings/tiers to see who those guys might be in the 2nd tier. Any surprises that will stand out this year by taking a quantum leap forward?

As will be explained, our methodology is really not likely to pinpoint a surprise that will take a quantum leap forward. It is designed to tell you what we think each player should do. That said, someone will take a quantum leap forward, we just don't know who. Sometimes this comes out of nowhere (John Danks), sometimes there are some signs that point to it (James Shields). What we will try to do is identify those like Shields. To do our job, we don't have to project a breakout. We just have to get you a little bit higher on those with a greater potential for breakout, and a little down on those with greater potential for struggling. In the long run, this will lead to a greater percentage of success and a smaller percentage of failures.

[da_big_kid_94]

16 team mixed 5x5 (HR, R, RBI, SB, BA, ERA, WHIP, W, SB, K/9) roto with standard 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Inflation historically runs 28%. Up to 10 can be kept. My choices:

C -
CI - Youkilis 16, Tex 35,
MI - Phillips 27
OF - Hawpe 20, Ibanez 10
DH -
P - Garland 11, Liriano 13, Peavy 33, Wood 11, Gallardo 15

I have my thoughts; would like to hear yours.

Laird and Gordon just missed my cut - Laird's move to Detroit was his rubicon here. I keep Peavy for two intertwined reasons - cheaper than Santana and so he becomes better Gallardo insurance than Santana. BUT - I would not squabble if you kept Gordon instead of Gallardo at the same price. Gallardo would have to show he's healthy first - at least to my way of thinking.

Good luck, old chap.

[CubFan]

C- Laird 2
1B- Youkilis 16, Tex 35
OF - Hawpe 20, Ibanez 10
P - Liriano 13, Wood 11, Gallardo 15, Peavy 33 (only if he stays in SD...his away splits send up a yellow flag)

If Philips looks healthy I'd pick him. If you are protecting early then a toss up between LaRoche and Gordon. Living in KC it is pretty apparent that he has placed a tremendous amount of pressure on himself to live up to the George Brett comparison the PR staff through out when he first came up. I really wonder if he'll blossom. Unless there is a Royal's fan in your league I think you can get him for 15 or less in the draft. Not that high on Burnett as he pitched for a contract in 2008 and now goes into the Yankee tree shredder...hate to see what it spits out.