Draft Goals in Keeper Leagues

[shif6]

As Todd pointed out in an essay somewhere, goals in keeper leagues are a tricky business. Putting in goals based on the results of the prior year might be a fool's errand. The leading stats of the prior year (sometimes by several teams - particularly if money turns on where you place in the standings) may well be the product of dump trades and can not be thought of as realistic goals for a draft. Do you adjust for that? In what way?
Perhaps one way would be to figure out what the stats should be in a non-keeper league with the same specifications and draft accordingly. How do you do that?

[cwk1963]

I think if you draft the way you would in a non-keeper league you very well could be leaving yourself short because of the dump trades. What I do is take the third place stats for each category for every year and average them out. With one exception, the third place finish in each category would give more than enough points to win the league which has 16 teams.

[Todd Zola]

In a keeper league with dump trading, I would suggest to totally ignore chasing targets. What you need is a solid foundation of counting stats and the attractive trading chips to supplement and fortify the categories you can enjoy the biggest boost in.

Truthfully, in any league with trading, I think we need to go back to the old Jason Grey mantra of draft for value, trade for balance.

It is mostly my fault for being so NFBC-centric in recent years, but target drafting is more important in no-trade leagues, and only to keep things in balance.

The example I like to use is last season in an early NFBC satellite, I was 30 HR short of my target. Available were Richie Sexson and Marcus Thames. I took Sexson because that way, I "hit my target". but when you look at it in terms of is Thames more likely to hit 22 or is Sexson more likely to hit 30, I should have taken the "sure thing" and figured out a way to pick up those 8 HR in-season.

[cwk1963]

In a keeper league with dump trading, I would suggest to totally ignore chasing targets. What you need is a solid foundation of counting stats and the attractive trading chips to supplement and fortify the categories you can enjoy the biggest boost in.

Truthfully, in any league with trading, I think we need to go back to the old Jason Grey mantra of draft for value, trade for balance.

It is mostly my fault for being so NFBC-centric in recent years, but target drafting is more important in no-trade leagues, and only to keep things in balance.

The example I like to use is last season in an early NFBC satellite, I was 30 HR short of my target. Available were Richie Sexson and Marcus Thames. I took Sexson because that way, I "hit my target". but when you look at it in terms of is Thames more likely to hit 22 or is Sexson more likely to hit 30, I should have taken the "sure thing" and figured out a way to pick up those 8 HR in-season.

Couple of points. Do you think it makes a difference whether it's a draft or auction league?

Also, I'm coming from the auction point of view. I have targets in that it's not a number I feel I have to hit but, rather, a guideline for where the solid foundation of counting stats actually lies. That's to say, if I didn't know the historical numbers, would I know if 900 RBI was a solid foundation or not? It would be if the league performance was 925 or so but not if it was 1100.

[Todd Zola]

Couple of points. Do you think it makes a difference whether it's a draft or auction league?

Also, I'm coming from the auction point of view. I have targets in that it's not a number I feel I have to hit but, rather, a guideline for where the solid foundation of counting stats actually lies. That's to say, if I didn't know the historical numbers, would I know if 900 RBI was a solid foundation or not? It would be if the league performance was 925 or so but not if it was 1100.

Nah, no difference in drafts or auctions. As far as historical numbers, what I care about is the historical percentage of stats needed at each position, and then I calculate that percentage based on our projections.

That said, the nature of our projections are such that year to year totals are not THAT much different, though HR dropped significantly from 2006 to 2007, pretty much holding steady in 2008.

[viper]

I have kept the final NFBC numbers or at least a subset of them. For example, with 25 teams I kept the 13th [midway between 1-25], the 38th, etc. When you get in the 12 category points through 6 category points range, the numbers are pretty consistent from year to year. You don't see so much a trend but you see that some season were hitter years and others were pitchers years. The one thing i see is that every win is very meaningful. This fact has strenghtened my beliefs that streaming 2-start pitchers is a winning idea.

[rotodog]

I only play in Auction Keeper leagues and done so very successfully for a number of years.

I do have access to historical standings and use them as a basis for all my targets. I do try to target somewhat, but it changes league to league and you need to know the rules of each league.

One league is 5x5 mixed but weird budget dollars and 10 bench players. But no FAAB...What you draft you own and not a LOT of trading in season compared to others....In this league I always use targets and draft more the sure thing or reliable ding dong player as a back up because I am not getting any Faab replacements.

One NL only Auction keeper and most other standard leagues with FAab and decent trading, I still use targets, but I like to draft around what I have already. I Am always OFFENSIVE heavy and draft 4th tier pitchers and non closer relief types with upside. Its much easier for me to strike lightning in a bottle with a FAAB pitcher year to year than a hitter. But I can use FAAB and trades to take me to a title.

I will always keep the Hottest rookies at tiny salaries instead of trading them preseason when I am limited to a set of keepers. YOU will need some top tier Cheapies to trade to the first dumper with the best stuff...If you have no ammo, you are not cashing the big check in October...You Need Ammo on June 15th...

As far as the targets themselves. I never limit myself to 3rd place. I find historic figures that would put me in at least second place reliably for each category but many times 1st in some categories. BUT, being miles ahead of everyone else in individual categories at the end is great, but most likely you wasted money or trade value somewhere... TRADE EXCESS during the year in an active league. Power and cheap keepers/rookies are easier to trade for anything you need. 3 rd place and 6th place in a category can be as close a 7 RBI in some cases. So if I only targeted a 3rd place and missed by only 5 RBI, I feel its possible for me to sink as far a 5th or sixth in any given year....

I like to bully Offense at the draft table and spend for the best players I need and spend early. I like to force the action. That in turn forces me to find the hidden value at the end I need in pitching or my last few roster spots. I always find it, even when I get outbid on a player I want because I have 3 dollars..

Keeper leagues and Dumpers can cause wacky things to happen. Draft the BEST team around what you have already and make sure you have some real ammo to get the rest. If you have a reserve draft after an auction, draft high upside guys or rookies or guys that may luck into playing time because of injury prone regulars....

One last thing on keeper league strategy even though its off the original topic. Decide who you are at some point of the season . Do Not try to straddle the fence.
If you have a solid team, GIVE what you need to win and do it early...
If Your team gets riddled with injury and the season is lost for sure, DUMP, DUMP EARLY and BET PREMIUM PLAYERS before other dumpers jump in and take the best players....