Ottoneu - Standard Points

[ThePostman111]

Hi Todd,

Apologies if this has been asked before but what're your thoughts on the best way to go about putting together a spreadsheet to use your projections for Otto standard points?

I understand that values are in somewhat dependant on league conditions but I'm just looking at doing something high level.

[Todd Zola]

There problem with "values" in Ottoneu because:

1. The entire roster is purchased under the cap
2. Different teams leave different amounts of wiggle room for adds
3. teams differ in how they'll treat how much they'll pay for everyday hitters
4. Ditto for pitching, especially starters.

Off-hand, I forget if I'm currently projecting all the categories necessary, but setting up a formula to generate the points per player is easy enough if you know some basic Excel. if you don't, I can take you through it and I have a spreadsheet (not yet rolled out) that generates rankings after you input the scoring.

This way, you have players ranked relative to each other and the trick is figuring out what the room is paying for different types of players, conforming to the market and buying players you like at a good price relative to the market.

If you're looking for a sheet that says Mookie Betts is worth $58, you're lost.

I'll let you answer the questions posed and we can go from there.

For those unaware, Ottoneu is the house game on Fangraphs with some unique rules, including daily moves and an "arbitration" system to accelerate contracts.

[ThePostman111]

Thanks Todd.

I have a spreadsheet that calculates the points and your projections give me all the stats I need except hbp which I use 0.0375 X IP, not sure how accurate that is but probably not a huge issue.

Where I think I'm falling down is the conversion to $$ and what roster sizes, hitter/pitcher splits to use etc. For replacement cost I ended up going catcher and then everything else to simplify. I'm thinking I might be getting too pedantic and should just pick something considering how high level/variable this all is but I'm interested in your thoughts to see if I'm heading in the right direction.

Cheers.

[Todd Zola]

Holds are projected.

While replacement and splits are tenets of conventional valuation, I don't feel they're applicable in Ottoneu.

Th daily nature of the moves means a good portion of many "projections" are useless. There are several mid to lower end pitchers who will only be used at home and/or favorable road matchups. Some batters have much better home venues (Coors Field, for example) so it's best to use some of their batters (Ryan McMahon, for example) only at home. McMahon's road numbers bring his points per game number down. Some lefty hitters play regularly, but there numbers against southpaws bring their PPG down, assuming you bench them against same side pitching. This also affects replacement, since it's the lower level players who are mostly matchup plays and their "replacement" points factor in the games they're on the bench.

I'll get back to the PPG notion in a bit.

The varied strategies in a 12-team mixed league with daily moves also precludes "values". Some will pay "whatever it takes" for the stars, then fill in with cheap guys at the end, only activating them when their stud has a day off, or an especially poor matchup.

Others prefer a team comprised of good to very good players, both active and reserve with the intention of spending time each day looking at the matchups (opposing pitcher, venue, weather, umpire) much like DFS and using the strongest lineup. It obviously helps to have players eligible at multiple positions to optimize this scheme.

The same is true for pitching. Some want aces and have them active every time, and pay accordingly while others opt for the matchup game, starting arms facing weak offenses, in a good pitchers park, favorable weather, etc.

If you concoct a method to generate "values", there's little chance it has any correlation to the market -- definitely not enough to guide an entire auction, especially in established leagues with cheap keepers.

My approach is getting the PPG and grouping players in the same neighborhood. I'll then decide stars and scrubs versus spread the risk -- which could be different for batters and pitchers.

Now it's a matter of reading the room. If I have a group of batters in the "X" points range, and a couple sell for $25, that's the market price for this tier. I do my best to acquire players in this tier for under market price. This is done for all the tiers over hitting and pitching and I piece together my team -- under the roster construct guise decided upon heading into the auction.

One thing I will do is assign target price per roster spot (not necessarily defined by position). It helps to have a feel for how much pitchers will cost relative to batters, but its possible to adjust on the fly if necessary.

As an example, I want to spend $370 of my $400 at the auction, leaving $30 for in season auctions.

$250 for 25 hitters, $120 for 17 pitchers

HITTERS: 55, 35, 30, 20, 15, 10, 10, 15, 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
PITCHERS: 30, 25, 15, 10, 10, 5, 5, 5, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

This is just an example, not a recommendation for a draft plan.

As I purchase players, I'll move budget around. If I buy someone in the $30 tier for $24, I'll add $6 to another roster spot.

Circling back to PPG, if my plan is to leverage splits, I'll tweak the PPG to estimate what the player will provide when he's in my active lineup. Again, just an example, but if a LHB projects for 10 PPG and his splits suggest it is more like 11.5 vs. RHP and 9 vs. LHP, I'll tier him based on 11.5 PPG. I don't project splits, it's all empirical. Same for pitching. If I'm going to stream a guy for 22 of his 32 GS, I'll estimate his PPG for those 22 starts.

Apologies if you wanted a more valuation based answer. If you want to decide on replacement and a split, I can take you through the bid price calculation. It's straightforward on Excel.

[ThePostman111]

Much appreciated Todd, that was exactly what I was looking for.

[timhipp]

Just popping in to say I was searching the forums trying to go in the exact same direction to come up with bid limits or values (last year was my first year playing Ottoneu, didn't plan it very well, had a steep learning curve) and the PPG method makes a ton of sense. Just figured out how to Excel it for hitters and already seeing some good value based on last year's prices and such. Thanks for all this great info Todd!