Todd Zola Pitching Projections

[ttarter1]

Hi Todd, just curious about your reasoning for having Bauer so high? Is it all based on 2020? He’s only finished with better than a 3.79 era twice. I get the strikeout value, but don’t you think giolito or buehler or flaherty could do better?

I’m asking because I typically actively avoid Bauer because of his ERA. Am I missing something in the sabermetric data?

I think you moved Gallen and Woodruff up in your rankings, which I think were savvy decisions.

[Todd Zola]

Welcome!

FWIW, moving Gallen and Woodruff emanated from reviewing projections - not really a decision.

Re: Bauer...

Lots going on here. First, he's a free agent so his projection is park and team neutral. He could move up or down, depending here signs. That said, for perspective, if he stays with the Reds, he doesn't move.

ERA isn't the best metric to use to project future ERA. Bauer's xFIP for three of the past four seasons has been 3.60 or lower and his SIERA 3.80 or lower.

Some of the reason to downplay Bauer's 2019 is he made a conscious effort to increase spin rate -- which is among the league's best.

It's a risk, sure, since 2019 happened and could happen again. It's a numbers game but some level of subjectivity is needed and when Bauer wants to do something, he does it. He's quirky, but knows pitching.

The three pitchers you list as possibly being better (and they very well may) are interesting.

In 2018, Giolito has the worst season among qualified pitchers, he made a change and has had a very good year and 60 games. It seems contradictory to trust Giolito's change and not Bauer's.

Flaherty and Buehler are both hotshot youngsters with a fine start to their career but were both babied this season and aren't likely to be 200-inning workhorses in 2021, whereas Bauer wants to work every four days (I'm not projecting it, just using it as an example Bauer is likely to throw more innings, which is a big factor in rankings).

The other factor with Flaherty and Buehler is there early seasons were with no DH. If the NL DH stays, those seasons need to be adjusted for projection purposes, whereas all of Bauer's seasons include pitching to a DH, so no adjustment is needed.

Bottom line is rankings are a guide. They don't factor in upside, reliability, risk and any other intangible not directly captured by a static projection. That's up to the drafter.

For example, heads up, if I'm on the clock and want a pitcher and both are available, I'd take Giolito over Bauer.

[ttarter1]

So the reason I bring up Giolito as a potentially better pitcher than Bauer is - even though Giolito has had some not so great stats - he’s so young that the excellent numbers he has put up seem like they can be replicated, whereas someone like Bauer has shown he’s basically a 3.5-4 era pitcher.

And that’s something I know about Bauer - he’s into spin rate, and he’s a real nerd about pitching - which makes me wonder why he doesn’t have like a 2.5-3 era every year. I think having a teammate like Sonny Gray, who is also a student of pitching, has helped him too. But I just don’t see him being a top 5 guy consistently.

I see where you’re going with guys like Buehler and Flaherty and getting babies and pitching to the DH. I just think their k/9 is going to be really valuable along with a really good era, and it’s going to be hard not to value them in that top 6-10 range by even the middle of the season.

Also, I totally get that this is a rankings system and not necessarily how you would draft these guys, but I’ve always thought - if you would pick Giolito over Bauer, why not just rank Giolito higher in your rankings? Know what I mean? Why not order them how you’d draft them in your rankings? Or are your rankings purely generated with algorithms and then you draft from there?

[Todd Zola]

Bauer's various xERAs over the past few seasons suggest to me he's more of a 3.30 - 3.80 ERA guy.

I specifically stated in the Twitter post:

Rankings by projected earnings, not necessarily a draft list.

[tantomatt2005]

Hey Todd - do you have a projection for david price? I don't see him in the pitching projections

[Todd Zola]

Dang it, I was afraid someone would slip through. Let me scrub for others before updating, but Price's line will be

129 IP, 9-5, 4.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP with 136 K

[Todd Zola]

Eduardo Rodriguez is also missing.

127 IP, 9-5, 3.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP with 129 K

[tantomatt2005]

Thanks! - is the low IP projection a function of having to divide LAD innings between six viable SPs or do you think there's an upper limit on how many he could throw coming back?

[Todd Zola]

You should adjust playing time how you see fit - that said, it's essentially the two feed into each other. At Price's age and injury history, I don't see the Dodgers forcing a high workload on Price, especially since they're deep enough to cover the missed or shorter starts.

The files are now updated.

[Carboshomer]

Sixto?

[Todd Zola]

Sixto?

Please ask a specific question. Sixto Sanchez is there. Are you asking about his projection? If you can't see him, please use CTRL F to search, thanks.