Category Management question

[brooklyn49]

Thanks for the great article, Todd. A follow up question: Are there circumstances under which additional normalizing of category management data is advisable? For example, if the last place team is just mailing it in or if they are not just punting a category but taking a safety (e.g. 1 save year to date) would it be more useful to use the next to last place team?

[Todd Zola]

Is it perhaps more accurate to do so? Maybe. But the point is not to come up with a number to the 3rd decimal point as much to show relatively speaking, how the categories are bunched, especially since the two most likely suspects are steals and saves, and the way to attack them is to get another closer or a guy that gets a ton of steals.

And perhaps the most important point is these are average standings. Each league has its own dynamics where there will be close pockets and wide gaps, in different parts if the standings. In some leagues, you can go from 6th to 3rd in a category in a week. In others, you are so far behind the 5th place team, it isn't worth the effort.

That is, don't get lost in the math, look at the big picture. Ratio categories are tighter than most perceive. HR are harder to make up than most think. Stuff like that. Then apply it in context to your league to make a move.

[brooklyn49]

any different considerations if your leading the league? Does one manage categories "as if" there are points to gain, or is this equivalent to killing the golden goose? We have all seen big leads dissapate in the month of September.

[Todd Zola]

I was debating between "second half myths" and "protecting a lead" as the next column for SI.com. Due to the timing nature of second half myths, if I feel I can come up with enough to fill a column, I will probably do that this week and protecting a lead next week.

One thing I personally like to do that I have never seen suggested, in fact I see the opposite has to do with the fact you get the same number of points if you win a category by 20 "units" or if you win it by 1 unit. And obviously this is true. But what I see most people say is to have a big lead is a waste of resources so manage categories so you barely win each. And to an extent that is true. But from practical experience, what I have found is if you have a decent lead in a category, even if you are winning it, the lead serves a deterrent for others to even try to catch you. They decide it would be futile, you are so far ahead, they'll look to make points up elsewhere. If multiple teams do this, then they are all fighting for whatever is available to help gain in the other categories, be it via trade or waivers/free agency, and these assets are now divided amongst all these teams, making it more difficult for any one team to gain ground.

So let's say you are 25 steals ahead of the second place team. Yes, 24 of those are "wasted" in terms of tangible points. But some of those are like the steals scarecrow. How many? There is no way of telling. But I would probably not deal Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury if instead I could deal Brian Roberts or Nyjer Morgan. That is, give away some of the lead but not all of it. Keep some as a buffer.

[Todd Zola]

Just want to come back and say you do not have to be LEADING the category -- in my haste to sneak in the point while I had a free second I was misleading. WHEREVER you are in the standings, treat the gap in that manner. You could be 3rd in the category, with a large gap to the 4th place team, etc.