The Flaw of Mock Drafting

[JP Kastner]

I'd like to throw this out. I'm certainly not arguing that Mock Drafting is a waste of time. What I'd like to discuss is the possibility that a potential flaw in Mock Drafting is how one plays the end game.

In an actual draft, I usually choose to use my #22 and #23 picks on picks for support of certain categories knowing that I have a free agent pool and bench. That means that I might use my #23 pick on Juan Pierre for his SB knowing that I will bench Pierre and pick up someone else to play most of the season. In a 12 team 5x5, there will be solid everyday players left. Even in a 15 team NFBC draft with a shallower free agent pool, I might do that.

From a Mock Draft perspective, I've sacrificed Runs and RBI so I fall in the standings. From a draft perspective, I'm using a late round regular pick to populate my bench with SB for when I need it knowing that there will be a couple of regulars left that I'm more likely to use as my #5 OF. Having some SB in my back pocket, is much better than scrubbing the free agent pool when a point in SB is the difference.

I have two choices, draft differently to do better in the Mock Draft standings or my actual strategy. If I'm not practicing the strategy I'd use on draft day, is the Mock Draft flawed?

[eudubbz]

I think thats the wrong way to look at it. Everyone in every draft will take someone like that in the end game. The mock drafts are meant to see how often these kinds of guys will get picked up and at roughly what round. Is everyone taking Juan Pierre or are they looking at a minor leaguer to fill that same void? I use the mocks to see where the hype is.

[ayebatter]

JP, so what you're saying, correct me if I'm wrong, is that if you take OF#5 in lieu of Pierre, you'll come short in SB and move down the mock drafting ladder of success. When you take Pierre in lieu of OF#5, you will come up short in runs/rbi, and move down the ladder of mock draft success. My suggestion is to find an answer earlier in a mock draft to compensate for this dilemma, you just may find your answer in rounds 9 and 10, that's why we do them.

Look at me, giving advice to JP Kastner.

[Todd Zola]

I have two choices, draft differently to do better in the Mock Draft standings or my actual strategy. If I'm not practicing the strategy I'd use on draft day, is the Mock Draft flawed?

No, because

1. You are doing what you would do which is important to you as you will now see some of the guys that may be available to you in the FA pool

2. What you are doing is helpful to others who may say to themselves "I can bag steals and always pick up Juan Pierre in the FA pool if I have to.

Also, I realize there are 10,000,000 who play fantasy baseball and only 400 or so that play in the NFBC, but one of the fun quirks of the NFBC is that in the 30 rounds (23 active, 7 man bench), you do not have to have a legal lineup by pick 23, you can draft your 9th pitcher at 28 and your 2 catchers at 29 and 30, etc.

[JP Kastner]

The reason I bring this up is that I did a public mock on Mock Draft Central Monday night. The next morning I received an e-mail where someone tracked where I was in the standings when it was my turn to pick and where I was after I made the pick. There were charts and everything. He must have stayed up all night.

He tracked me as I anticipated player runs and told me I was rocking until I got to my last two picks. Because of a tight packing of Runs, RBI, HR, Wins and K's, had I filled my last two slots (DH/P) with others I would have come in "first". He asked if I knew where I was and why I selected the players I did.

I told him that from a public mock point I view, I wasn't trying to come in first place based on someone's projections. I was trying to build a team that had the best chance of winning a season. I like to keep some SB and SV on the bench if I can so I don't have to get into a bidding war for them if I need them later. My last two picks are replaceable. In a 12 team 5x5, there should be a couple of 18 HR hitters and 12 win pitchers left in the free agent pool.

As I thought about it, I was in quite a pickle. People track what I do. Do I try and win the Mock or do I build a team that if played out has a better chance to win the season?

--

p.s. As far as giving me advice, I'm always trying to learn. I'm blown away by the new ideas and perspectives here.

[cwk1963]

If all it took to get the title was to win the Mock (or real draft/auction), then I'd be league champ 5 years running. In either of the situations (mock or real draft/auction) you build a team that has the best chance possible to win the season. Seasons can be lost at the draft but they can't be won - there's too many things that can happen between draft time and the Yoo-Hoo shower.

[Mosey]

It doesn't matter because once you get past say, round 18 of the mock draft you are talking about guys who no one really wants any more. Sure one guy might let lose an f-bomb because you got the "last SB guy" and he needed them, but other drafts that guy may not get drafted at all. Your needs will change on draft day along with everyone else's. Since you draft those last few rounds on needs, mock drafting them is boring at best.

You mock to draft to gauge where people fall and more importantly where people perceive a guy has moved from year to year. Where does Utley go, do people think he is all the way back or not? Are you too high on Corey Hart or not?

We all know Hanley is a top 3 pick, who cares, why even draft that round?

And why draft those last 4 or five rounds to see where some schmuck lands? If you got the hots for a minor leaguer, grab him. If you don't who cares. We all know the top two or three rounds and we all shouldn't give much of a poop about the last few. Some guys like fat chicks, you just don't ask that guy who the cutest girl in the bar is.

[viper]

My first two to three mock drafts are purely bookkeeping exercises. I use paper and tweek what I use each season. By using the fast mock drafts [45 seconds per pick] in MDC, I can determine exactly what I need to have on paper in front of me and what isn't helpful. An example is I now always have an alphabetical list of hitters and another of pitchers. These lists have the dollar value for each player. When someone is drafted that I don't see immediately for crossing out purposes, I check the list and it lets me know exactly where to look. During the first half of the draft, the list is seldom used. In the later stages, I go there first for pitchers. Only one or two times a draft do I need to check out a hitter. Still this list has been a lifesaver when time is critical especially when a moderate surprise pitcher is taken.

More later

[drapes]

Here's why I like mocking.

In a mock you can test out new strategies to get a relative sense of whether or not they're viable. In the current MB mock I'm trying to draft guys I want at a position based on my sense of the strength of its player pool. I've reached a number of times to get guys that both fit the mold of the type of player I want at that position, and are in tiers that I'm targeting for the position. Longoria at 13, Kemp and Alexei Ramirez at 3.12 and 4.1, Derek Lee at 6.1, etc. The danger in that strategy is when you're hoping to build your team around Mark Teixeira with the 12th pick and he goes at 10. By taking Rollins when he slipped, and reaching for Longoria who I felt was the last sure-fire power 3B, I passed on power bats like Hamilton and Fielder. I've forced myself to hope that I can get enough 20+ HR guys to stay with the teams with the boppers. Now these next four or fives picks are going to determine whether or not I pull off my draft plan, then the rest of the draft should tell me if it can be a competitive plan.

Sunday I'm mocking with Todd, Perry, and some other guys at another site. That's going to be an incredible stage to test out a new game plan, and the only hope I have of staying with those guys is to do some serious zagging.

Now remember, I'm not saying that these will fully represent my actual drafts later on in terms of player value and draft position, but I am suggesting that it will be close enough to test out theories.

So what am I going to throw at Todd on Sunday night? I have a few ideas, but haven't settled on anything yet. But it's definitely going to be a breaking ball.

[Max Power]

The thing that I find most useful about Mock Drafting is that it allows you to see the implications of one approach vs. another on your team.

Right now, I'm going back and forth on my approach to closers--to take some studs early, to wait and see what i get--and the Mock allows me to see what that does to my team. If I grab an elite closer or two in the first 5-9 rounds, what sort of hitters are left in the pool later on?

Also, it helps me gauge position depth. With so many slots to fill, everyone ends up waiting on one position or another. Through a Mock, I can see what happens if I wait on 3B or SS or 2B. Again, whats the trade-off in terms of what I pick up by avoiding a run and waiting on a certain position.

Again, its not an exact science--its not like you can say for sure that X will be available in round 18, but you can practice the process of making trade-offs and really set yourself for success in a real draft.

[steve9781]

I too have been using Mock Drafting a lot more this year than in previous years. I will say I feel a lot more prepared than most years, to make the some of the split decisions needed in the draft. Here is what I've been doing.

Round 1-2: You should not be getting hung up on exact players, ( ie no I have to get R.Braun, if you do that your bound to pass over value for the named player you want).
What you do need to be aware of is how those first 2 picks effect the rest of the draft and how you'll need to compensate. (ie if you get Reyes with your first pick, you have SB but could start to fall behind in power).

Round 3-10: This is where you start to figure out what combinations work best to give your team it's best overall value. If you mock enough what player types are going to be needed to fill out your roster ( based on earlier picks) will be second nature. Once again I'm never hung up on an actual player, just the stats similar players generate.

Round 10-20: Mocking here should give you an idea on the movers and the shakers. Do enough mocks and you should be able to approximate what round lesser players are going, but keep in mind that higher ranked players who fell in the mock, effect the later rounds. If in your real draft, everyone feels the need to grab a SS early, then the later SS that are normally available might not be there.

DON'T GET HUNG UP ON WHERE YOUR PROJECTED TO FINISH IN A MOCK! What you should look at is whether or not your hitting your leagues catagory targets ( which you should know) and more importantly if you struggle obtaining a specific statistic. Early on I realized that in my quest for power I was overlooking BA and SB. I've adjusted and accounted for that fact. I'll also be more aware of my tendencies when I draft for real, hopefully so I won't repeat past mistakes

Good Luck