RoY pitch projection question

[Tampa Bob]

I am looking to give my pitching a goose. I know you're not supposed to chase wins but I kind of need some more wins.

Reviewing the RoY projections I was surprised to see 3 names listed (1 of mine) that seem to indicate the projection is based upon how well they performed last year. To wit:

Matsuzaka, Kazmir and Lester

Granted they have proven talent but they have all taken a pretty good beating in their 2009 seasons. Do you really think the light will come on come June 1st and they'll be back to their standard level of production?

Thanks, TB

[Todd Zola]

Our philosophy is multiple years of data is more relevant than 50 games worth of data. So that is still the major foundation of the projection. On the flip side, we don't have Greinke maintaining a sub-1.00 ERA.

You may want to check out the Delmon Young question for some details that transcend just that player, the overall philosophy is explained.

In brief, the projection is a weighted average of what we expected and what has been done, scaled to the playing time of what we anticipate the rest of the season.

The weights are based on some numbers we look at globally -- of course some players are at either end of that estimation.

All we can do is be open about our model so the user understands where the numbers emanate.

It is not so much "what we believe" as what the objective model says will happen based on history. Our philosophy is to trust history, that for the majority of players, the RoY projection is representative of what will happen. So in that regard, what we believe and what the model says are the same.

If you put more weight on current level of performance, your expectation is going to be different.

With all that said, we admit this is an objective treatment. Our apologies to those who wish or believe we should look at every player subjectively every week. I hope we did not give the impression that was the case.

Now, with all THAT said, we obviously reserve the right to override the model and interject subjectivity where warranted. We are approaching the 1/3rd mark of the season, perhaps it is time to assess some under-performing individuals. But really, how many can we be SURE are exhibiting real and measurable CHANGES IN SKILL?

[Tampa Bob]

Thanks Todd. I think when we see someone deviating from what we consider their baseline value level (Kazmir, Sizemore, etc.) we have to make a judgement on which factors might be causing the decline. The fact that an injured player will keep going until their arm falls off before admitting an injury makes the process delicate.

Your description in the Delmon Young thread was very helpful and I believe marks the first time I have seen you quote your sister on this board. Is she going to demand a cut now?

[Todd Zola]

Your description in the Delmon Young thread was very helpful and I believe marks the first time I have seen you quote your sister on this board. Is she going to demand a cut now?

I'm pretty sure I give her credit whenever I feel the need to use the expression "cool beans" in my analysis.

As for a cut, her payment is having me "help" her out in her Yahoo league composed of Bruce Springsteen fans. "She" has effectively turned it into a great battle for second place, and now "she" gets to field offers for Matt Wieters and Tommy Hanson, both of which are on "her" reserve.

[Todd Zola]

Duh, I should have addressed the root of the question and not just explain the RoY process.

I have the most confidence in Lester, by far. He has thrown very well, but has given up way more HR than normal, which I feel is correctable, either by regression to the mean or an actual adjustment. That said, he is someone who is a candidate to tire down the stretch as he had a heavy workload last season. However, assuming Smoltz is healthy, it would not shock me for Lester to get a 15-day vacation in July or August as a means to freshen him up for the stretch.

Dice-K is still walking people at an exorbitant rate - and regression is a pitch.

Even when healthy, Kazmir's win potential is impacted by his inability to go deep into games with the high pitch counts, not to mention the clusterfrick that is his bullpen.