Mastersball Fantasy Forum

Hey Todd,

I always calculate keeper inflation for my home auction league but have found that the actual inflation rate is nonlinear. If the calculated rate is 25% I may see top tier players go at a 40-45% mark up and the lesser players go at 5-10%.

Are there any methodologies to redistribute those inflated dollars to the top players?

Thanks!

I've championed this notion for awhile. In practice, the top players always go for more than where conventional valuation prices them - even without inflation.

The key is separating cost (or price) and expected value. The initial value is the player's expected value - what he should cost.

Once the first player is purchased, the VALUE remains the same, but the PRICE could change, One of the tenets of valuation is setting prices so exactly every dollar is spent and everyone has a legal roster. If the first player goes for more or less than expected value, the money needs to be redistributed. The resulting amounts are now COSTS, not values. This is what needs to be paid, in proportion to their value, to completely exhaust everyone's budget.

If you follow me so far, you probably see where this is going. To adjust PRICES, the values should be rerun after very purchase, accounting for the most recent purchase (taking that money out of the pool and needing to fill one fewer roster spot).

Sure, this can be programmed by those really good at that sort of thing, but it in practice, it's unnecessary.

The problem is, you're trying to model something that won't follow the model. There's always someone planning on grabbing Mike Trout, regardless of price, so they can trade him for prospects. There's someone with a great keeper list figuring then can overpay for Jose Altuve.

Repricing after every purchase is better than linear application, but personally, just understanding this is what happens is the important thing. I'd rather track what players are still available, know what I need, know what others need and plan accordingly.