Mastersball Fantasy Forum

6x6 league with OBP & SLG instead of AVG--- QS and IP instead of wins (H2H, can only have 12 starts per week)

I can keep Bellinger for 1 year costing me $2. 2-years x $7 per year, 3-years for $12/year, etc. I'm debating 4-6 years for $17, $22, or even $27. Non-refundable contracts (Year-1 was 5 years ago and a guy signed Jared Cosart to a 4x16 deal, messed him up for years). Trout goes for about 55-60 when he's not kept. In 2015 there were 4 drafted $30 hitters, a $28 posey, and two-$30+ starters. In 2016 Harper, Trout, Goldie went for 56-54; Kershaw went for 39, there were 3 other $30+ pitchers, and 4 other $30+ hitters. I haven't run the numbers for this past season yet but at a glance they don't look dissimilar. FWIW, BaseballHQ, with all my league's info plugged in, has Belly as a @28 player this year, 10th most expensive hitter, with Troutey at #1 costing $44. Taking inflation into account, my guess is that Belly would go for 36-40 in the draft. So I could theoretically lock him up on a 6-year $27 deal that could give me a solid $15 upside per year. Conservatively, the 4x$17 would could give me 4 years with a massive 100% profit pretty much built in, but with the upside of a possible 200%.

Then there's Luis Castillo. I can keep him for $3 for one year or 2x$8. HQ has him valued at $13.

What do we think!?

How many teams are in the league?

How does the H2H work? That is, is going 10-2 mean 10 wins, two losses or one win?

What's your general strategy -- balance or focus on certain categories in lieu of others (and if so, which?).

FWIW - disagree with the notion Bellinger has $15 ROI at $27. He won't earn his inflated cost, that's just what it takes to get him.

12 teams, individual categories (I can win 7-5, not 1-0).

My general strategy is to punt steals to a degree and focus on R, RBI, HR, OBP, SLG. I use roughly 67% of my budget on hitters. I'm also keeping a $36 votto, a $3 Bruce, a $3 DeJong and a $28 Kluber. Generally, there are always amazing discounts in the late rounds of the auction--which helps a stars and scrubs strategy. It's also a daily-change league so I always use left-handed hitters with strong splits as my final few $1 hitters to round out my 4/5 OF, CI, and Util (last year I had Kepler, Peralta, Lo Mo, Thames and Dickerson; in 2015, when I won the league last time, I platooned Choo, Heyward, Brad Miller, Peralta, and Grandy).

I don't spend any money on relievers (aside from $1 closers---the average closer has gotten much cheaper over the last few years). Standard Roto (2C, CI, MI, 5xOF) rosters with 8 bench spots, again that I can plug into and out of my lineup on a daily basis.

I am really concerned with Belly's floor, moreso than the potential for a catestrophic injury. So what's my realistic downside in which I go 5 years x $22---and he's just a "meh" player?

Castillo, my worry is all injury risk. I don't keep players on multi-year deals unless they were once a minor leaguer (and therefore I have the ability to sign to a very favorable contract)---and I've never had a multi-year pitcher.

Thanks, Todd!

Discounts at the end are always there for sure, but that doesn't mean you can pay inflated prices on too many, you just give back the potential profit.

I really like Castillo. For me, minimum 2@$8, could do 3@$13 depending on league dynamics.

Bellinger is aided a ton by OBP and SLP. I can see 5@$22 or like you say, even 6@27. I'd probably do 5 years, figuring at some point I find another cheap keeper to help make up for his expiring contact and take what should be double digit profit for the next five seasons.

The more salary kept, the less you need to chase the inflated top end and still fill in with the cheap guys late.