UNDER THE MICROSCOPE - NEW FEATURE

Message

#1 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 11th, 2009, 10:05 pm

The idea is for you to suggest players and for us to put them under the microscope. We'll dissect the stats and come up with an analysis. Pitchers, hitter, overachievers, strugglers -- the choice is yours.

First up is Joe Blanton.

Please use this thread to request players. Priority will be given to players with multiple requests.

Kstan · #2 Post by **Kstan** » May 12th, 2009, 12:13 am

Dontrel Willis (if he doesnt get hammered in the first outing).

da_big_kid_94 · #3 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » May 12th, 2009, 5:41 am

Two posts for two types of players - First; What I'd like to see are the pre season "darlings" who were hyped for what I can see was no conceivable reason save an opportunity was suddenly presented to them ... Jordan Schafer, Chris Dickerson, Daniel Murphy, Nelson Cruz, etc. Like to see who's performed so far, who hasn't, and were either of those trends predictable. That is NOT to say some of these types did not put up stellar minor league numbers - just that their opportunities came seemingly gift wrapped.

da_big_kid_94 · #4 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » May 12th, 2009, 5:46 am

Second - to borrow a line from Steven Wright :"Who ya gonna be when you get here?" - the guys who were ranked very highly several years ago who have seemingly just stalled for one reason or another (Hermida, pick a La Roche, Weeks, Pie, Crisp, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman - just to name a few)

#5 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 12th, 2009, 7:29 am

Kstan wrote:Dontrel Willis (if he doesnt get hammered in the first outing).

He doesn't fit the intended spirit of this feature. The idea is to dissect numbers, what's real, what's not, what to expect going forward. He doesn't have any numbers to dissect and one outing is not going to provide a sufficient basis. No matter what he does, it will be completely anecdotal speculation for the ensuing analysis. Personally, I may root for him to succeed, but he won't be on any of my rosters.

#6 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 12th, 2009, 7:33 am

da_big_kid_94 wrote:Two posts for two types of players - First; What I'd like to see are the pre season "darlings" who were hyped for what I can see was no conceivable reason save an opportunity was suddenly presented to them ... Jordan Schafer, Chris Dickerson, Daniel Murphy, Nelson Cruz, etc. Like to see who's performed so far, who hasn't, and were either of those trends predictable. That is NOT to say some of these types did not put up stellar minor league numbers - just that their opportunities came seemingly gift wrapped.

Second - to borrow a line from Steven Wright :"Who ya gonna be when you get here?" - the guys who were ranked very highly several years ago who have seemingly just stalled for one reason or another (Hermida, pick a La Roche, Weeks, Pie, Crisp, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman - just to name a few)

While the overall concept is interesting, it is beyond the scope of this feature. I can pick a player from Group A and one from Group B (and keep picking them in lieu of other requests), but this is not intended to be a global study.

da_big_kid_94 · #7 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » May 12th, 2009, 8:29 am

Todd Zola wrote:
da_big_kid_94 wrote:Two posts for two types of players - First; What I'd like to see are the pre season "darlings" who were hyped for what I can see was no conceivable reason save an opportunity was suddenly presented to them ... Jordan Schafer, Chris Dickerson, Daniel Murphy, Nelson Cruz, etc. Like to see who's performed so far, who hasn't, and were either of those trends predictable. That is NOT to say some of these types did not put up stellar minor league numbers - just that their opportunities came seemingly gift wrapped.

Second - to borrow a line from Steven Wright :"Who ya gonna be when you get here?" - the guys who were ranked very highly several years ago who have seemingly just stalled for one reason or another (Hermida, pick a La Roche, Weeks, Pie, Crisp, Conor Jackson, Casey Kotchman - just to name a few)
While the overall concept is interesting, it is beyond the scope of this feature. I can pick a player from Group A and one from Group B (and keep picking them in lieu of other requests), but this is not intended to be a global study.

Tis all one can humbly ask for.

eudubbz · #8 Post by **eudubbz** » May 12th, 2009, 9:35 am

chris davis and alexei ramirez

steve9781 · #9 Post by **steve9781** » May 12th, 2009, 9:49 am

JIMMY ROLLINS ( pretty please, I think this fits the profile given ie long track record, under perfoming etc )

cwk1963 · #10 Post by **cwk1963** » May 12th, 2009, 10:41 am

steve9781 wrote:JIMMY ROLLINS ( pretty please, I think this fits the profile given ie long track record, under perfoming etc )

Mark Texeira in the same boat.

Tampa Bob · #11 Post by **Tampa Bob** » May 12th, 2009, 11:18 am

I like this idea! I'll go with Scott Richmond or Nick Blackburn.

njdupre · #12 Post by **njdupre** » May 12th, 2009, 12:49 pm

Maybe you could take a look at J.Cueto ( SP-Cinn ). I own him in a couple of leagues. I'd love to think this breakout is real.

njdupre · #13 Post by **njdupre** » May 12th, 2009, 1:03 pm

Joe Blanton

Just a quick glance at the numbers, and the one thing that jumped out at me is the HR/9. 2.85 at home and .75 on the road. It looks like he's suffering from the same bug as Meyers. It's my understanding that the Phillies park favors hitters, but does it affect HR to this extreme?

AllstonRockCity · #14 Post by **AllstonRockCity** » May 12th, 2009, 2:38 pm

glenn perkins please

#15 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 12th, 2009, 3:42 pm

njdupre wrote:Joe Blanton

Just a quick glance at the numbers, and the one thing that jumped out at me is the HR/9. 2.85 at home and .75 on the road. It looks like he's suffering from the same bug as Meyers. It's my understanding that the Phillies park favors hitters, but does it affect HR to this extreme?

In the Blanton write-up, it mentions CBP inflates HR by about 22%.

That said...

This is a global index, each pitcher is not affected 22%

In such a small sample of games, there is a lot of noise. A couple starts with 0 or 1 HR and that HR/9 plummets.

churchm · #16 Post by **churchm** » May 12th, 2009, 5:37 pm

Edwin Jackson, real? has looked great. even prior start where coughed up 5 runs, looked good through 6.

maybe gotten a helping hand from luck?

#17 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 12th, 2009, 5:48 pm

Holliday posted. What we'll do is have a master column where all of the players are archived and a separate link for the newest postings. Hang in with us, we'll figure out a way to clean it up, but we'll be functional.

Small hint with a starting pitcher -- if he has a 2-start week, check the 2-start article on the front page, if there is something pertinent, I will usually give a quick quip about it there. Not saying I won't attack starting pitchers, just saying I can't get to everyone and you may glean a little something.

FYI, while on the topic, mlb.com has asked that I file a little earlier, so they can get it edited and we can post it a little earlier than I have been.

alleyoops · #18 Post by **alleyoops** » May 13th, 2009, 12:57 am

Josh Beckett, Jorge Cantu.

cwk1963 · #19 Post by **cwk1963** » May 13th, 2009, 10:23 am

Todd Zola wrote:Holliday posted. What we'll do is have a master column where all of the players are archived and a separate link for the newest postings. Hang in with us, we'll figure out a way to clean it up, but we'll be functional.

Small hint with a starting pitcher -- if he has a 2-start week, check the 2-start article on the front page, if there is something pertinent, I will usually give a quick quip about it there. Not saying I won't attack starting pitchers, just saying I can't get to everyone and you may glean a little something.

FYI, while on the topic, mlb.com has asked that I file a little earlier, so they can get it edited and we can post it a little earlier than I have been.

Where is it posted? I can't find it.

EDIT - Nevermind

Mickey4081 · #20 Post by **Mickey4081** » May 13th, 2009, 6:04 pm

Yes, Jimmy Rollins by a mile.

Kstan · #21 Post by **Kstan** » May 13th, 2009, 9:14 pm

Todd Zola wrote:
Kstan wrote:Dontrel Willis (if he doesnt get hammered in the first outing).
He doesn't fit the intended spirit of this feature. The idea is to dissect numbers, what's real, what's not, what to expect going forward. .........

What about Edwin Jackson? Are the skills for real?

#22 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 14th, 2009, 10:33 am

Rickie Weeks and Jordan Schafer posted.

I have to knock out the rest-of-year projections, 2-start pitchers piece and the FAAB column over the next couple of days, I will get back at this over the weekend.

Jimmy Rollins and Edwin Jackson next in line.

Hambowen · #23 Post by **Hambowen** » May 16th, 2009, 9:26 am

I think Garrett Atkins would be an interesting one. Fluke start or declining skills?

CubFan · #24 Post by **CubFan** » May 16th, 2009, 10:01 pm

cwk1963 wrote:
Todd Zola wrote:Holliday posted. What we'll do is have a master column where all of the players are archived and a separate link for the newest postings. Hang in with us, we'll figure out a way to clean it up, but we'll be functional.

Small hint with a starting pitcher -- if he has a 2-start week, check the 2-start article on the front page, if there is something pertinent, I will usually give a quick quip about it there. Not saying I won't attack starting pitchers, just saying I can't get to everyone and you may glean a little something.

FYI, while on the topic, mlb.com has asked that I file a little earlier, so they can get it edited and we can post it a little earlier than I have been.
Where is it posted? I can't find it.

EDIT - Nevermind

Is this a Platinum feature?

#25 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 16th, 2009, 10:23 pm

Yes, Platinum only.

#26 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 18th, 2009, 5:08 pm

Jimmy Rollins, Chris Davis and Mark Teixeira added.

cubswin · #27 Post by **cubswin** » May 20th, 2009, 9:56 am

I agree with Atkins and also think Uggla would be a nice study

momige · #28 Post by **momige** » May 22nd, 2009, 4:22 am

Great idea Todd.
How about Marco Scutero? (although it may be too late as he has been falling back to earth as of late).

uharchmajor · #29 Post by **uharchmajor** » May 23rd, 2009, 2:06 am

How 'bout the newly demoted Ricky Nolasco. One year wonder or a great buy low.

Kstan · #30 Post by **Kstan** » May 23rd, 2009, 10:19 am

Does Jason Vargas SP Seattle qualify?

#31 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 23rd, 2009, 10:38 am

Some good suggestions, I'll catch up on Sunday and Monday.

Vargas does not "qualify" in that the intent FOR THIS FEATURE is to have a performance level not in line with his career numbers, good or bad.

This is not to say Vargas is not worthy of mention in some form or another. But we are limited with what we can do.

He was mentioned in the FAAB pickup piece from last week.

It is fair game to post a question in the message forum, either in the player analysis or if you want to reference the quip in the posted piece, in this forum, asking a specific question including context about Vargas.

Of course, if the question contains too much context with respect to your own team, it goes in the team management forum.

But here is a little tip that should help people get pertinent info and help they can use...

We have a saying, "No one cares about your team but you".

Using Vargas as an example, if the question is "Vargas is available, is he worthy of a pickup and who should I drop?", there likely will not be too many responses.

But if the question was "Vargas was a pretty highly touted prospect derailed by injuries. Does anyone think he can stay healthy and if so, what kind of numbers are you expecting?"

Human nature dictates the second question gets answered.

You then use that in context with your league to make a decision.

Just using Vargas as an example, this is obviously general advice for everyone.

#32 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 25th, 2009, 10:42 pm

Scutaro and Atkins posted, will do Nolasco next. Quick tease on Nolasco, as unlucky as his hit rate and HR rate may be, there is some nice PitchFX data that suggests bad pitching and not just bad luck.

Hambowen · #33 Post by **Hambowen** » May 29th, 2009, 9:45 am

Thanks Todd,

The Atkins and Scuturo helped a lot.

I think Magglio is probably someone lots of people are wondering about as well.

viper · #34 Post by **viper** » May 30th, 2009, 8:29 am

Another to consider is Scott Baker. Early injury aside, he seems not to be the same pitcher we saw last year. I have Baker on 4 of my 10 teams. Fortunately only one of them are leagues without benches so I have him on the pines for the most part.

#35 Post by **Todd Zola** » June 9th, 2009, 9:51 pm

Scott Baker and Magglio Ordonez posted.

Sorry, been working on a couple of projects, one of which I will share soon and ask for some subscriber comments.

jkadagio · #36 Post by **jkadagio** » June 12th, 2009, 10:40 am

If you are looking for another subject, I'd like to hear your thoughts on Luke Scott. Obviously he's been on fire of late, but has anything changed in his skill set to think this will continue? He's hitting lefties better than in his past, but that is based of a small 2009 sample.

#37 Post by **Todd Zola** » June 12th, 2009, 11:16 am

Luke Scott is a sore subject with me as I had him on the bench for his 5 HR week when he just got off the DL, but I will be a professional and not let personal feelings interfere with doing my job

Mickey4081 · #38 Post by **Mickey4081** » June 14th, 2009, 7:01 am

Todd Zola wrote:Luke Scott is a sore subject with me as I had him on the bench for his 5 HR week when he just got off the DL, but I will be a professional and not let personal feelings interfere with doing my job

You and I both Todd. That week stung watching him explode while on bench

......oh for the daily leagues.........

Mickey4081 · #39 Post by **Mickey4081** » June 14th, 2009, 7:04 am

How about Russel Martin. How many teams is he sticking it too this year.

jkadagio · #40 Post by **jkadagio** » June 22nd, 2009, 2:14 pm

Thanks for your thoughts on Luke Scott.

If you are looking for more subject matter, I wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on Jason Bartlett. In my league he is the #1 SS (which I certainly didn't expect going into the season) even with the missed injury time (which I did expect).

Kelly_Leak · #41 Post by **Kelly_Leak** » June 23rd, 2009, 8:56 am

I would like to see something on Torii Hunter...and for that matter I would find it interesting to see something on the whole Angels outfield (Rivera, Abreu, and Vlad as well). Abreu and Vlad's lack of power, Rivera finally getting ABs...