NEW BLOG ENTRY -- The Saves Conundrum

[Todd Zola]

http://blog.mastersball.com/2009/04/sav ... ndrum.html

[viper]

There is a fifth option on handling saves. In the Subscribers league, I just didn't draft any closers. A total 100% dump of saves. Now I would never do this in an NFBC league but in this league I decided to do it. If I didn't draft Mr. Wang, this approach would be working quite well. And I think it still will work for a solid number of pitching category points.

[Todd Zola]

realized that later -- works in redraft/non-keeper leagues and would also be an option if saves were "more predictable"

[deansdaddy]

Hey Todd,

Just read the saves post - and I like the idea - the half-point tallied save and K/9 would be an interesting change. I like k/9 much more than holds-which many leagues add as a 6th cat. But it should be noted that adding a third ratio stat to the pitching ledger would need to be balanced out -

Do you think a 0.5 point BA cat and either a 0.5 pt OBP or OPS would make sense as a balance. It has always bothered me that the walk isn't factored into the equation more often.

[Todd Zola]

I'd prefer straight OBP myself.

And while we're at it, I'd make SB a ratio category and category and use SB success rate. Well, I need to think about that one, maybe net steals.

[steve9781]

Todd,

Liked the article, made me think, but I completly disagree with the premise. Everything you say about Saves could be made about wins,HR and B.A. Why HR, why not total bases. Why wins when like saves they can be vultured and are not a true indicator of a pichers talent. My biggest beef, has always been with batting average. OBP should be the fantasy standard, to penalize players that get on base via walk is wrong. The whole object of baseball besides scoring the most runs, is to get on base. 4 walks is the same result as 2 doubles.

It will NEVER happen, but it's hard when you go to talk FB with someone and you have to spend the first 10 minutes explaining your league rules, just to have a conversation. I know people will always want to customize, but an industry standard, would be helpful. ( I never played and like the idea of NFBC, but why no trades? Is it for competitive balance? I just don't like the idea, of not being able to improve my roster, outside of the WW) If we all used the same rules and requirements I personally think it would help to grow the game, and make discussions reguarding it, a little easier. Just my 2 cents.

[cwk1963]

Todd,

Liked the article, made me think, but I completly disagree with the premise. Everything you say about Saves could be made about wins,HR and B.A. Why HR, why not total bases. Why wins when like saves they can be vultured and are not a true indicator of a pichers talent. My biggest beef, has always been with batting average. OBP should be the fantasy standard, to penalize players that get on base via walk is wrong. The whole object of baseball besides scoring the most runs, is to get on base. 4 walks is the same result as 2 doubles.

It will NEVER happen, but it's hard when you go to talk FB with someone and you have to spend the first 10 minutes explaining your league rules, just to have a conversation. I know people will always want to customize, but an industry standard, would be helpful. ( I never played and like the idea of NFBC, but why no trades? Is it for competitive balance? I just don't like the idea, of not being able to improve my roster, outside of the WW) If we all used the same rules and requirements I personally think it would help to grow the game, and make discussions reguarding it, a little easier. Just my 2 cents.

I haven't played the NFBC yet but I imagine it's to avoid collusion due to the high stakes involved.

[Todd Zola]

Re NFBC -- it is completely due to collusion. Heck, there are already mumblings when a somewhat decent player gets dropped from a league that owners are in cahoots.

Re why only saves? I completely agree that there is some other factors involved with other categories, I even address that without naming the categories or the issues...

Before I go on, trust me, I understand completely there are other huge elements of happenstance that go beyond saves. My contention is the same exists for saves, but to a greater degree -- a much greater degree. And this degree has reached a point that is has sucked some of the fun out of the game for me

But it goes beyond the predictability. RBI and runs are team dependent. BA can fluctuate +/- 15 points based on lucky bounces. SB are opportunity-based. Wins are a crapshoot. ERA depends on the bullpen. WHIP involved hits which as explained has some element of luck. I get that.

My point is it is a completely different landscape with saves. A closer being removed from the role and being replaced is not the same as a cleanup hitter being moved down in the order because he isn't producing. About 40% of the saves that will occur over the season will not be on an opening day roster in a mixed league that does not use middle relievers. THIS CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT ANY OTHER CATEGORY. And THIS is the fundamental difference with saves and why entire strategies are built around this. There is no strategy based around the unpredictability of RBI. Or ERA. MAYBE you can say the LIMA plan ignores wins, but even that is a bit or a misnomer.

So again, it goes well past the inherent non-projectable nature of the category, it goes deeper than that.

Not saying you or anyone has to agree, just embellishing the passage I quoted above.