Mastersball Fantasy Forum

Just wondering how much of a hit Dickerson will sustain when the updated projections come out? He's still on the board in my latest draft in round 7 and I need some power from my OF but am afraid the Trop may suppress him quite a bit.

UK BlueCat wrote:Just wondering how much of a hit Dickerson will sustain when the updated projections come out? He's still on the board in my latest draft in round 7 and I need some power from my OF but am afraid the Trop may suppress him quite a bit.

Completely forgot to move him for the last update.

I use composite park factors. In brief, the conventional way to apply park factors is to cut the affect in half and apply it since a half the games are at home.

What I do is a weighted average of the player's schedule. So there are 81 units of the player's home venue and 81 away. If a player has 9 road games against a division foe, 9 units are that park etc.

Believe it or not, the LBH composite HR index for Tampa is better than the one for Colorado. That explains this:

COL: .304-25-81-7-78
TAM: .286-26-78-6-75

Interesting, thanks for that info! So it's safe to say you wouldn't have any qualms taking him in round 7/8 over other outfielders like Pence, Peralta, Calhoun etc?

UK BlueCat wrote:Interesting, thanks for that info! So it's safe to say you wouldn't have any qualms taking him in round 7/8 over other outfielders like Pence, Peralta, Calhoun etc?

That's the tier -- I'd take those three over Dickerson but it's preference and not numbers.

UK BlueCat wrote:Interesting, thanks for that info! So it's safe to say you wouldn't have any qualms taking him in round 7/8 over other outfielders like Pence, Peralta, Calhoun etc?

First don't forget that while Tampa the park is not a problem, Tampa the team most likely to platoon is - while they should play Dickerson every day and see whether he can hit LHP they have a lot of extra OF/DH hitters and may well sit him against LHSP - tough ones for sure but conceivably all LH. That would change how you order those four IMO.

If you are just looking at HR then maybe it is Dickerson over Calhoun, but I look at total contributions in which case I would likely draft Pence and Peralta before Dickerson (although in a recent 15 team draft I did take Dickerson at 7.04 - Pence was gone but Peralta (and Calhoun) were both still available - this was before the trade. Both Peralta and Calhoun went in round 8 before it was my turn

Todd Zola wrote:.....

I use composite park factors. In brief, the conventional way to apply park factors is to cut the affect in half and apply it since a half the games are at home.

What I do is a weighted average of the player's schedule. So there are 81 units of the player's home venue and 81 away. If a player has 9 road games against a division foe, 9 units are that park etc.

Believe it or not, the LBH composite HR index for Tampa is better than the one for Colorado. That explains this:

COL: .304-25-81-7-78
TAM: .286-26-78-6-75

Interesting BA. I was figuring on a bigger hit, especially since his AWAY split has been below league average. Todd, do you "penalize" players moving from the NL to AL? If so, how much? If not, why not? I don't have any figures to support my observations but more often than not there is a significant adjustment period they all go through.

Also, don't forget Dickerson has had injury problems in the past. Couple that with the above and Perry's note about TB likes to platoon and I'm going to need a discount before I get in on the bidding.

Pitchers get dinged a bit but not hitters - there's no real evidence there's a project-able difference.

I haven't actually done the update for Dickerson yet - the above numbers assumed the same at bats. I suspect we're looking at more like .285-23-68-5-66 which bakes in some playing time upside.