in-season projections

[freewheelin76]

I don't see the in-season projections on the site yet. Is there a delay in getting those out? Also, is there anywhere that you briefly explain your methodology for in-season projections? Are you just adjusting playing time or are you also updating a players skill/ability based on performance so far? Thanks!

[Todd Zola]

Should have them up later -- the first few weeks are going to be a work in progress as we get our stat feed in tune with our spring data.

We will explain the methodology, and that too will be a work in progress. Initially, it is going to be almost 100% playing time adjustments and reacting to obvious situations like bullpen roles changing (Cubs, Rockies).

Over time, we will adjust rate of performance if it appears a player's skill has changed. The trick, as always, will be discerning luck from skill, which will be the WIP element.

It is going to be a fine line between having as much automation as possible and subjectively accounting for playing time and skill changes. We are a little slow rolling things out as it took a little longer than I had hoped to finalize our stat feed, the first step was then automating the process and now we are fine tuning how Gary and I will be doing the weekly updates.

As mentioned, we will have numbers posted, but they will admittedly be missing players called up since opening day. The primary changes are more injury related.

[freewheelin76]

Looking at the ROY projections, it looks like you did do some adjustments on skill/ability rather than just playing time. For example Adam Jones got an upgrade in BA from .274 to .288 and David Ortiz got a downgrade from .284 to .275. Can you briefly describe your current methodology for the upgrades/downgrades, how complete a process it is (are you looking at all players?, all categories?), and how it might change throughout the year? Also, how often are the ROY projections going to be updated...weekly? Thanks!

[Todd Zola]

It's a weighted average between what the player has done and what we expect. By changing skills, I specifically mean changing what we expect.

As the year to date sample grows, that will begin to dominate what we expect and therefore be reflected to a greater extent in the rest of year numbers.

Here is a REAL rough example and does not represent the actual weights, I am keeping it simple to explain the process. To be honest, as we have explained, the weights are a work in progress.

Let's say we project a player to hit 32 homers and we are 1/4 the way through and he has 12.

Prorating those 12 is 48 for the season.

So the year long projection is

(.75 x 32) + (.25 x 48) = 24 + 12 = 36

so the rest of year is .75 x 36 = 27, we expect 27 more.

As for timing, we aim to get them posted on Thursday night/Friday morning. This week will be most likely Saturday morning.

[freewheelin76]

Thanks a ton Todd.