Rolen or Luke Scott

[CJMOMM]

Need a utility player for a 14 team mixed league. Best options are Rolen or Scott. The league has an unlimited DL and you can replace any guy that goes on the DL. Thoughts?

[Todd Zola]

I'm not sure how Rolen's back hence performance will hold up on the turf so my pick would be Scott.

[cwk1963]

I'd ride the hot early hand in Rolen.

[Todd Zola]

I'd ride the hot early hand in Rolen.

Curious, how do you determine hot hand?

Serious question here as I think predicting short term performance is something that most would like to be more scientific, but I am not sure it can be.

PAST 7 DAYS

Rolen 18AB .222BA 1HR 2R 2RBI
Scott 24AB .333BA 1HR 3R 3RBI

Last week, Scott "hotter"

SEASON

Rolen 46AB .326BA 2HR 9R 5RBI
Scott 45AB .267BA 2HR 5R 6RBI

For the season, Rolen is "hotter"

I don't know that there is a RIGHT answer

When riding streaks, I prefer to use BABIP, contact rate and walk rate to help determine "hot" from lucky.

[cwk1963]

This early in the season I'm more apt to take a chance on an injury, etc. - before someone else catches that lightning in a bottle. Rolen has looked good for the season so far so I'm willing to take the chance on him. If he doesn't keep it up or stay healthy I think somebody else will be available in a 14 team league.

[Todd Zola]

With specific respect to Rolen, I personally think it is more of when, not if -- balky backs and turf do not mix.

So then the question becomes who is a better option, a HEALTHY Rolen (who then gets replaced) or Scott.

Or even more complete

Rolen + his replacement versus Scott.

An argument can be made either way, and as implicated, a lot depends on the REPLACEMENT for Rolen. If the quality remains pretty good, the Rolen argument is stronger.

All that said, I am sticking with Scott, who I feel is better than Rolen, even if Rolen is healthy and I will go with history (albeit recent) versus a couple weeks.