MB'09 - Josh "Wonderboy" Hamilton, OF, TEX

[Bodhizefa]

I should preface this by mentioning that I believe in the best of people, and that sometimes opens my projections up to being rather optimistic. I've recognized this over the last few years and have attempted to become more objective in my outlook of players, but I'm not always perfect. However, I cannot hide my utter manlove for Josh Hamilton. He is a superstar when he's in the batter's box. He has upside in literally every skillset category this year, and while I believe we should downgrade his RBI output, I think he has a very good chance of equaling or bettering every other category in '09. He will likely score more runs as he should walk more this year. He should hit more homeruns as he grows into the rigors of 162-game baseball (his swing is a thing of power beauty). He has the speed to up his steals totals into double digits. As a Mariners fan, Hamilton scares me more than anyone else in the AL West when he's at bat against the M's. He's the best hitter in the division at this point, and his skillset in Arlington is going to be a tremendous viewing experience over the next few years.

So here's hoping he keeps up his great battle against addiction.

[CubFan]

I should preface this by mentioning that I believe in the best of people, and that sometimes opens my projections up to being rather optimistic. I've recognized this over the last few years and have attempted to become more objective in my outlook of players, but I'm not always perfect. However, I cannot hide my utter manlove for Josh Hamilton. He is a superstar when he's in the batter's box. He has upside in literally every skillset category this year, and while I believe we should downgrade his RBI output, I think he has a very good chance of equaling or bettering every other category in '09. He will likely score more runs as he should walk more this year. He should hit more homeruns as he grows into the rigors of 162-game baseball (his swing is a thing of power beauty). He has the speed to up his steals totals into double digits. As a Mariners fan, Hamilton scares me more than anyone else in the AL West when he's at bat against the M's. He's the best hitter in the division at this point, and his skillset in Arlington is going to be a tremendous viewing experience over the next few years.

So here's hoping he keeps up his great battle against addiction.

I echo most everything you said. I tried hard to get him last year and lost out in a bidding war. The guy who won the league and outbid me for him never let me forget it and said he was the key to his 1st place finish. I hate him.......well not really.

Hamilton stayed relatively healthy but his production did slip noticeably after the break. His average improved quite a bit in September but the power was missing. He did have a bothersome Home/Away split .345/.408/.611 vs .263/.331/.448. His significantly higher K rate on the road was the main cause. So if he can raise his BABIP on the road he should raise his game to the next level. Health which was once a concern for him seems to be less so this year. Overall, I'd go with similar numbers sans the RBIs for this year.

[cwk1963]

I said it elsewhere, but while I don't think he'll be bad, I don't think he'll be as good as last year either. I'd put last season in the career year category.

[Bodhizefa]

I said it elsewhere, but while I don't think he'll be bad, I don't think he'll be as good as last year either. I'd put last season in the career year category.

I've heard others say this (or maybe it's just you on multiple boards, lol), but I simply cannot believe it. While he may not earn quite as much as his '09 season due to a drop in RBI's, I still don't think we've seen the best of Josh Hamilton. His skillset is almost limitless from a scouting perspective, so where I cannot back up my statements with sabermetrics, I can say without a doubt that Hamilton has the scouting skillset to be one of the top 10 hitters in baseball. His batspeed, eye and swing mechanics all scream superstar of the highest order, so the only thing stopping him at this point will be hard work and dedication.

[Mojo Jojo]

i have to agree with Bod on this one...if he has better stamina and doesn't fade in the 2nd half i think he has at least 40 bombs

[Todd Zola]

I am going to follow up at the end, but I posted this in the "Rebound Theory" thread

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Because of the nature of the story that is Josh Hamilton, most of us WANT him to succeed, it is human nature. So even though for the past 2 seasons, his skill set has been virtually identical, many are suggesting he will improve upon that skill set more than the normal 28 going on 29 year old player would, because he had been out of the game and really has a HIGHER skill set that will finally manifest this season. I am personally of the mind we will maintain this present skill set as opposed to improving any more.

The second part of the bias is with playing time. Last year was the first one EVER that he played basically a full season. If this were Geoff Jenkins back in the day, people would be saying "no way he makes it through another year playing CF every day in that Texas heat" and would discount his playing time. We have Hamilton for 552 AB, as compared to 625 he got last season. This is going to drop him to a very controversial ranking amongst outfielders, but unless I am convinced otherwise, I feel some level of injury risk needs to be considered.

A very defensible stance is because last year was his first full season, he did tire down the stretch which masked a skills growth.

Now the conundrum is are his skills still in growth mode or will they level off at a point which is a bit higher than the consistent level of 2007 and 2008? So I would not argue with someone who contended that he would hit HR at a higher rate than last season. But I might argue expecting 40 is too optimistic for my liking, or at least is at the very upper end of his potential range.

This still leaves playing time as an issue and I just cannot assume another 155 games.

[cwk1963]

At 28, I don't think the skill set improves. We're not talking about a 22 or 23 year old kid. And, even if it improves, I think you do have to ask the question Todd does. Will it improve enough to offset a possible decline in playing time whether it be due to injury or just that Washington wants to keep him fresh down the stretch instead of vanishing like last year? I don't think it will. But I do love the story.