MB'09 - Chris Davis, 1B/3B, TEX

[Bodhizefa]

I cannot deny that I'm fairly excited to see what Chris Davis can do in a full season in the big leagues in terms of power output. I hate to get giddy over a youngster, but I see 30 homeruns as a nice baseline for Davis' projected output this year. And there's upside in that projection as well. The real question is how low will his batting average be, and for that, I'm not sure there's a good answer. The educated guess is that his extremely excellent line drive percentage will offset his very high strikeout rate and put him in the .280-.290 batting average range. If you're not into LD%'s as a repeatable skill (Davis' line drive percentage of 25.5% trailed only David Wright, Andre Ethier, Ryan Ludwick, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Pablo Sandoval and Jerry Hairston of batters with at least 150 AB's who should enter '09 with starting jobs) and you want to knock Davis for being both slow and a human fan in terms of contact skills, I'd think somewhere in the .260-ish range would be more appropriate. I lean towards the .280's range (especially in Arlington) but would be open to listen to other opinions on such things. That Davis is eligible at both 1st base as well as 3rd base makes him a boon in terms of utility value (add a buck or two depending on positional variety in your league), even if Davis' defense at third base is atrocious on the level of negating any offensive value he would have. But why should we care? We're just fantasy owners!

My projection? .280/.335/.540 with 32 homers and at least 100 RBI. He's a very exciting and upwardly mobile player to own in 2009, although I fear the hype may cause his initial cost to outweigh his likely output in many circles. Top 5 third baseman for '09? Quite possibly.

[CubFan]

My projection? .280/.335/.540 with 32 homers and at least 100 RBI. He's a very exciting and upwardly mobile player to own in 2009, although I fear the hype may cause his initial cost to outweigh his likely output in many circles. Top 5 third baseman for '09? Quite possibly.

Gee Bod them's mighty lofty numbers, but I can't argue against them. But if you rate Davis that high what would you expect for Longoria? He'd be hard pressed to beat your projection for Davis. I had penciled in Longoria for similar numbers. The Davis owner in my 12 team AL only league has Davis at $9 while I have Longoria for $19. I've been pondering offering Longoria straight up for him even if Longoria slightly out produces him. I guess the real question is who has a better chance of NOT meeting expectations

[Bodhizefa]

I guess the real question is who has a better chance of NOT meeting expectations

Probably Davis.

I do love the guy, but his higher strikeout percentage and lower walk percentage opens him up to being prone to a bit more of the fates than Longoria. Marcel has the two as basically equal in OPS in '09 (with Longoria inching past him by a mere three points), and Bill James projects Davis to win the OPS war by a landslide (59 point difference). Both systems see higher batting averages for Davis (surprisingly), mostly due to the high line drive % projections. Longoria gains ground in both systems with a much higher projected number of steals, but otherwise, they see Davis as a real batting average threat due to how frikkin' hard he hits the ball. Personally, from a stats perspective, I doubt he maintains such lofty LD rates, and I'd bet he falls to .270ish range or less. But my gut when watching the guy says that he hits the ball hella hard, and that his line drive rates are lofty for a reason. And regardless, Davis' power is very real. He and Longoria had similar ISO power ratings last year, and the two were quite a bit further apart in the minors. I think Longoria falls back to earth a bit while Davis continues to show growth in the power department. Longoria may hit 27 or more homers next year, but it will be due to more at bats while his ISO could see a bit of a drop. Meanwhile, Davis' ISO has a better chance at growth in line with his minor league numbers.

Is Davis a good bet to match or better Evan Longoria in '09? Maybe not, but I'd wager it's going to be a lot closer than most people think.

[Mojo Jojo]

i think davis' line likely looks like last year's, however i concur with Bod's upside talk. davis can mash the longball and with growth in his hitting skill set i think he isn't too far away from hitting 45 on a regular basis.

longoria, has nice power potential but not as substantial as davis. where i think longoria will ultimately distance himself from davis is in batting average. not saying longoria is a future batting champ, however as his ability to handle lhp improves and his contact rate improves (both held him back last year) his batting average will surpass davis'

long-term i think i would rather have longoria as i think he becomes/is the better all around hitter, but i wouldn't mind having davis either. except that jerk Bod wouldn't trade him to me

i too think davis is more likely of the two not to reach bod's projections. he ability to miss more balls could lead to some prolonged slumps...though bod's accurate assessment of davis' line drive pct does give him more batting average potential.

[da_big_kid_94]

I like Davis. I am very hopeful about Davis. I have Davis entering his second year at 5 units in my AL only 4x4. But before I'd commit to numbers such as these, I'd like to hear and then see one thing happen - Ron Washington penciling his name in the lineup no lower than 6th. Tell me he's going to hit eighth all year again? I lower my expectations.

[Todd Zola]

I think everyone has nailed Davis -- Bod's projection is pretty close to what we have, we actually have 35 HR, but Kid's "pause" is well deserved as he is a playing time risk due to the possibility of slumping from a high-K rate.

Our Longoria projection is going to cause much angst as we are not at all optimistic he can maintain an average in the .280 range.

[Mosey]

The problem is it is easy to get excited about a kid after his first trip around the league. The fact he strikesout so much could be no big deal (Ryan Howard) or could mean pitchers will figure out how to exploit him (Adam Laroche).

Of course this plays into his BA a great deal. a .280 hitter with a 30/80/2 line is a $15-$18 player. That same player with a .260 line is a $10-$12 player.

That is a pretty big swing and he doesn't exactly have the consistency track record of Abreu. You have to assume both are equally possible, even if he does make the pants move when you project him out to 600 PA in a power line up.

[krgrecw]

i think Davis will hit round 40 homers barring injury