Auction Strategy

[Trav The Ump]

Draft is coming up this Sunday and the team that owned Trout dropped out, meaning he's going into the pool for the first time (12 team AL only). Because teams knew Trout and Cabrera were both going to be available it seems a lot of teams are coming into the draft with a LOT of money. (Perspective; I kept 10 and have $152 left, that leaves me 7th highest dollars remaining.)

- I have Trout pegged at $60 with our inflation, I'm not sure that gets him.
- Cabrera I can see going for $53-$55.

Couple of thoughts as I've read a lot of the Tout wars post draft analyses from MB and others, it seems to me there is a high risk of teams doing one of two things. Really overpaying early and than not being able to spend all that money remaining. Or teams may balk at that high of a price, we've never had anyone go in that stratosphere, and get to the middle with bags of cash.

My gut tells me I'm going to have to figure this out by probably the time Cabrera goes because as the prices begin to fall steadily, I don't want to get left with a bunch of cash myself. However, also figuring this out will lead my throw strategy as if guys are going more than they should, toss undesirables, wherein its cheap go with a guy I may want to roster.

Also, based on the pitchers that were kept I don't like the bulk of the pitching available. Meaning I could see myself going $190/ $70 or maybe more. I will be rostering some form of closer, as with a 12 teamer I'd prefer not to have to scratch and claw for them as I plan on being in the top half of the standings (plan anyways, lol) it makes it almost impossible to get waiver wire save guys.

So, do I go the distance for a Trout/ Cabrera or do I risk going a balanced approach knowing I may have other owners that fall into that whether they want to or not and end up overpaying?

[Todd Zola]

In keeper leagues you will always have to overpay to account for inflation.

I wouldn't chase Trout or Miggy but I wouldn't wait either.

You really can't compare redraft dynamics to keeper dynamics -- two completely different animals

[da_big_kid_94]

The Captain alluded to this situation in another post and I never got around to responding. It is a question that is akin to so many franchises in both the NBA and NFL ... the question is this;

Can any one team reasonably expect to consistently win when 20% of their entire salary cap is wrapped up in one player?

The Captain mentioned an owner who held on to Miggy for three years at 52 units. He didn't win the first two years he had him because he didn't have a strong enough supporting cast. He traded him in year 3 and got back a 1st round pick, Gausman and Choice. So, to me, keeping Miggy at 52 cost him 5 years - three years of Miggy, plus one - two years development for the two players he got in return.

I'd go for neither. You have 6 teams with more money than you have - four of them are going to walk away disappointed - in my view they should be grateful and wondering what they are going to be spending their bankrolls on. Were I you, Trav, I'd be looking at who else might be a big ticket item and hope like hell their names aren't thrown out until Miggy and Trout are gone. Then, if I didn't want them, I'd start tossing out their names to lessen the sting of not getting either Miggy or Trout - and to get them to spend.

And then there's the other factor - if YOU were to WIN either Trout or Miggy - how long do you intend to keep them for (assuming they both go in the range you protect?). If it's more than one year, can you afford to? If it's one year only, are either of them THE difference maker for you? Because if you need more than one name to get there, 12 for less than 100 is a real tight budget to accomplish that with.

[Captain Hook]

You can find examples on either side of the road kid

In the same league that owner that had Miguel Cabrera before at $51 won the league and cashed the other two years
The owner who had Cano at $50 won the league twice
So good owners can spend that kind of money and win - perhaps it takes a nice group of younger cheap contract, or being a good trader, or just being a very good owner but having one player take up $50 of your $260 doesn't mean you can't win your league but you need a lot more good players on the team with him (or a lot of profit in the other players)

[Kelly_Leak]

I'm in a similar situation in my 10 team AL only (draft Saturday), except it is on the pitching side. After my 6 keepers (Straily and T.Walker are my only pitching keepers) I will go into the draft with likely the least amount of cash ($156).

In addition to Sale, Scherzer, and Darvish, the entire two middle tiers of SPs are being kept (from Matt Moore to Anibal Sanchez). The top 5 pitchers available are Felix, Verlander, Price, Weaver, and then Dickey (which one doesn't belong? ). Pitching inflation is nearly 30% (Felix's inflated value is up to $48 - he will not go for that much, more like $38). My plan/budget has me trying to acquire one of those top 4 SPs plus an upper end closer (Holland/Perkins) for $55-$60. If these upper end SPs go for more than I am comfortable with, I will adjust, but the goal is to get one before there is only one left.

I think the key is being able to adjust your plan/budget as the auction develops. Have a plan that starts with acquiring Trout or Cabrera, but aslo have a plan to redistribute your budget if Trout/Cabrera exceeds what you are willing to pay.

While Todd's 'Pontifications of Lord Zola' 3 series article on auction budgeting does not specifically address keeper leagues the concepts are still relevant to a degree. I have a budget built around my keepers with the goal to not go over any player's calculated inflated value.

[Trav The Ump]

Well I'm defending champ and am pretty happy with my roster going in. The one place I feel I can out manage the other teams is on the wire picking up starting pitching. So I think I can skimp there to pad the batting totals, also I already have Davis/ Hosmer for a combined 32 units and am well on my way to having a top half offense again. However, in my experience our league has under-valued inflation in previous drafts. Meaning that when Miggy gets to 50, owners just stop. Whether he's worth more doesn't matter, its a magic number that just stops them. I can see that happening again, however with Trout I think there will be to much man love and he's going to go record high.

My gut tells me right now, be one of the owners to pony up and get one of them. Heck, I paid 37 for Konerko last year and still made up for that blunder, lol. Than I can concentrate on filling the rest of the roster as best I can.

[Trav The Ump]

My draft is tomorrow and I'm bursting baby! Can't wait, I only do one because its all I have time to focus on but its one of the highlights of the year.

[da_big_kid_94]

My draft is tomorrow and I'm bursting baby! Can't wait, I only do one because its all I have time to focus on but its one of the highlights of the year.

Good luck with it Trav. Have the Coach's first one tonight , second one Friday so I understand the focus conundrum (mine's Sat). May you leave the table with a smile and no units left upon it.

[Captain Hook]

Hopefully I have two columns this week as Tuesday in my AL keeper league I will have one of the toughest, wildest auctions ever seen - 10 of 11 teams have over $100 to spend with seven of them north of $150. The only one with less has $92 and the best keeper list.

And there are more big names out there than usual - both Miggy and Fielder; plus Cano, Pedroia, and Reyes; along with Verlander and Price and of course all the players new to the AL this year.

Oh My!

[Trav The Ump]

Team is in my signature, Trout was first throw $66, Cabrera was second and went for $67, Longoria went third at $44 and we were off to the races. I trusted in my values I had derived and didn't buy any of them. Cano ended up going for $47, $5 more than I could have kept him. However I think the freed up money gave my team much better balance. On the whole I think I have the best overall offense by a mile, however my pitching is pretty weak. I just didn't like any of the prices guys were going for and just kept adding offense. Ended up $212/ $48 which is pretty skewed however I "hope" I don't have any anchors on my staff meaning my relievers can help keep the ratios in check and once my team starts to rake I can move a bat for an arm in season.

Being defending champ I do get bid at a lot, also commish who maybe has to many zingers now and again, lol. However two things I saw in my draft. One, the top guys were going over my values early meaning that deals were to come. I got Rios, Zobrist and Asdrubal under my inflated values on my sheet so was really happy with that. I also noticed REALLY early that catchers were going to go bonkers. I bought Conger at $4 I'm going to say in the 3rd lap around the picks, my throw. Navarro went $10, Arencibia went $9, Pierzynski $13, just all sorts of crazy as guys scrambled to get catchers as they started coming off the board.

Only about 365 days until I get to do it again!

[Captain Hook]

Team is in my signature, Trout was first throw $66, Cabrera was second and went for $67, Longoria went third at $44 and we were off to the races. I trusted in my values I had derived and didn't buy any of them. Cano ended up going for $47, $5 more than I could have kept him. However I think the freed up money gave my team much better balance. On the whole I think I have the best overall offense by a mile, however my pitching is pretty weak. I just didn't like any of the prices guys were going for and just kept adding offense. Ended up $212/ $48 which is pretty skewed however I "hope" I don't have any anchors on my staff meaning my relievers can help keep the ratios in check and once my team starts to rake I can move a bat for an arm in season.

Being defending champ I do get bid at a lot, also commish who maybe has to many zingers now and again, lol. However two things I saw in my draft. One, the top guys were going over my values early meaning that deals were to come. I got Rios, Zobrist and Asdrubal under my inflated values on my sheet so was really happy with that. I also noticed REALLY early that catchers were going to go bonkers. I bought Conger at $4 I'm going to say in the 3rd lap around the picks, my throw. Navarro went $10, Arencibia went $9, Pierzynski $13, just all sorts of crazy as guys scrambled to get catchers as they started coming off the board.

Only about 365 days until I get to do it again!

Good Team Trav - curious if Jesse Chavez or Rienos Elias were drafted in your league

[Trav The Ump]

Both went, Chavez for $2 and Elias for $1. Funny Canadian thing, it was remarked around the room that Roenes Elias sounds like a hockey player, had to be bid on!

[CubFan]

Trav, nice offense. Last year an owner tried the strategy of very cheap pitching and loading up on offense. He made the playoffs. He did the same thing last night. Another two owners did the same although one owner did it because he was able to protect three SP at $6 each.

Except for the high bids for Trout and Cabrera your league's bidding was similar to mine in many ways. In the early going the big names were thrown out and in most cases went for more than the max inflated values (I used 35% over projected values) I had for them. Interestingly Cabrera went for $44 as the second name thrown out. That looks like a bargain compared to some of the other players who were bid on. I stayed away from the early bidding except to price enforce. I also didn't want to wait too long and get into the inevitable bidding wars for the last of viable players. There were some good, not great, values in the middle to late rounds in the OF. I missed out on Beltran at $26 and Jennings at $24. Bit too early on Brantley at $24.

Now you get to roll up your sleeves and go to work on the waiver wire and show your mojo. Good luck!