how long do i keep these players?

[kentucky]

15 team NFBC league.

I have Lee, Zimmerman, Buchholz, Millone, Buehrle, Westbrook, Kimbrel, DHernandez, KHerrera with Motte, Strailey, Beachy on my bench. My pitching is off to a great start, and could have good depth if all these guys were active. I realize Beachy's timetable for return, Motte is to be reevaluated May 1st, and Strailey is in the minors.

What is your feeling regarding the bench players? I don't want to cut bait on any yet, but what kind of impact can I expect from any of them this year? I have a feeling Motte is DONE and TJS is in the near future, but I need to wait and see. Strailey will get his chance this year, but when? Is Beachy worth the wait?

Any advice is appreciated.

Bill

[da_big_kid_94]

Motte has a tear in his UCL ... this is a situation that, even if he can rehab this year, he has to be at least a month away so you're talking June 1st at the earliest - and then he's still only one pitch away from TJ surgery. Is Beachy worth the wait? You're the only one who can answer that since you drafted him and you probably had good reason at the time. If he rehabs successfully, you'll get him back around the ASB. If he comes back like he was pre surgery, he has a live enough arm to help. Straily may not get his chance this year. If nothing else, Colon eats innings, so he'd really have to bomb before being considered for replacement. So, you're down to A.J. Griffin and Straily. You are then committed to a waiting game on Griffin ...and that may or may not come this year.

[Captain Hook]

15 team NFBC league.

I have Lee, Zimmerman, Buchholz, Millone, Buehrle, Westbrook, Kimbrel, DHernandez, KHerrera with Motte, Strailey, Beachy on my bench. My pitching is off to a great start, and could have good depth if all these guys were active. I realize Beachy's timetable for return, Motte is to be reevaluated May 1st, and Strailey is in the minors.

What is your feeling regarding the bench players? I don't want to cut bait on any yet, but what kind of impact can I expect from any of them this year? I have a feeling Motte is DONE and TJS is in the near future, but I need to wait and see. Strailey will get his chance this year, but when? Is Beachy worth the wait?

Any advice is appreciated.

Bill

Hi Bill - in general the roster spots are far too valuable to have too many tying your hands with lineups and ability to add other players you should at least be "trying out"

IF you feel Motte is done and can live with the self reciminations should he return then he should be cut - hopefully you have other closer(s).

Beachy should be cut - even if he were able to pitch now and last I heard he wasn't close you don't know what he is going to look like and frankly the Bravos aren't taking anyone out of that rotation the way things are going .... now.

Strailly is tougher - he is just a car ride away. I would keep him if you cut the other two - if not hope you can get him back if/when he is back in Oakland.

Nice pitching staff you drafted btw

[kentucky]

Thanks for the responses, I'll take them under consideration. I failed to mention this was an auction league, not that it makes much difference. I took Beachy in the reserve to stash and hold for a while. I assumed I would know Motte's condition by now, and had no clue Straily would be sent down, especially after the 11 K performance in one start. I really thought he'd end up in the pen, worst case. I'm sure it's in his best interest to be in the minors. At least he's getting his innings in and can be ready to start any time when called upon.

Though my pitching is doing well, if I can get the right player, Beachy will probably be the first to go. I'll probably hold onto Motte for a couple weeks to see what happens. I hate to let 25 - 30 saves escape me just for two weeks aggravation.

Bill

[da_big_kid_94]

It is, as always, your decision. I'm just curious how you figure 25-30 saves over a 4 month period. This is a guy who, IF HE IS CLEARED May 1., may not see 9th inning duties for a while even after he returns. I think you have you hopes for Motte set WAY too high.

We picked up Beachy in our reserve draft as well ... but we have a spot for him to recover. If you do not, then it's best to cut him now. he not going to do anything for anyone until July 1 at the absolute earliest.

[Todd Zola]

Personally, I think smoke = fire and if Motte throws another pitch this season, it will be one more and he'll leave clutching his bo-bo.

[kentucky]

It is, as always, your decision. I'm just curious how you figure 25-30 saves over a 4 month period. This is a guy who, IF HE IS CLEARED May 1., may not see 9th inning duties for a while even after he returns. I think you have you hopes for Motte set WAY too high.

We picked up Beachy in our reserve draft as well ... but we have a spot for him to recover. If you do not, then it's best to cut him now. he not going to do anything for anyone until July 1 at the absolute earliest.

Can't disagree at all, but IF he starts closing at week 9, and this maybe a pipe dream, that will give him 18 weeks of closer duty. Is it unfair to predict 1.5 saves per week on a team that's probably going to win 90 games this year.

I haven't done research on this, but I'm sure you guys have. What is the "average" percentage of saves per team victory? I know it will vary, but for some reason I use 40%. If the Cards win 90 games, there "could" be an opportunity for around 36 saves, or about 6 per month. Is this unfair guesswork?

My 25-30 came from him assuming the closer role around mid May. I'm hoping I'll know in two weeks whether to hold or cut bait.

[da_big_kid_94]

It is, as always, your decision. I'm just curious how you figure 25-30 saves over a 4 month period. This is a guy who, IF HE IS CLEARED May 1., may not see 9th inning duties for a while even after he returns. I think you have you hopes for Motte set WAY too high.

We picked up Beachy in our reserve draft as well ... but we have a spot for him to recover. If you do not, then it's best to cut him now. he not going to do anything for anyone until July 1 at the absolute earliest.

Can't disagree at all, but IF he starts closing at week 9, and this maybe a pipe dream, that will give him 18 weeks of closer duty. Is it unfair to predict 1.5 saves per week on a team that's probably going to win 90 games this year.

I haven't done research on this, but I'm sure you guys have. What is the "average" percentage of saves per team victory? I know it will vary, but for some reason I use 40%. If the Cards win 90 games, there "could" be an opportunity for around 36 saves, or about 6 per month. Is this unfair guesswork?

My 25-30 came from him assuming the closer role around mid May. I'm hoping I'll know in two weeks whether to hold or cut bait.

I understand, but you seem to be assuming a lot. He hasn't touched a ball since March 22nd. He may be cleared to START some baseball activities - but do you really think he's going to go from a torn UCL and 5 weeks of inactivity to closing games at a major league level in three weeks? And of course, no guarantee he goes uninjured for all 18 remaining weeks. And aren't you also assuming he will be as effective as he was last year? if you want to hold your breath for 18 weeks, that is certainly your call ...I don't know many around here who would.

[Trav The Ump]

The only thing I noticed in your theorem of 40% is that you assign 100% of those saves to one guy. That's also not generally going to happen between the odd three inning save, the loogy match up and the odd day off save. Not many but may round your number down a couple more ticks.

[kentucky]

The only thing I noticed in your theorem of 40% is that you assign 100% of those saves to one guy. That's also not generally going to happen between the odd three inning save, the loogy match up and the odd day off save. Not many but may round your number down a couple more ticks.

not necessarily to one guy. I appreciate the feedback and I think this could be a good discussion. I said if the Cards win 90 games, there should be 40% (my number) save opportunities for a closer. That's only 36 saves. That's just a number I've invented and would like for someone to tell me if it's even close to realistic. Is it unrealistic to predict a top-notch closer getting 1.5 saves per week? Is that number 1.4, 1.25? Of course it depends on the team he plays for, and that's where the team wins come in.

Forget the health issues for now, IF, and a big IF, Motte is back by mid May (week 7), stays healthy for the remainder of the year, how many saves does he get?

[kentucky]

It is, as always, your decision. I'm just curious how you figure 25-30 saves over a 4 month period. This is a guy who, IF HE IS CLEARED May 1., may not see 9th inning duties for a while even after he returns. I think you have you hopes for Motte set WAY too high.

We picked up Beachy in our reserve draft as well ... but we have a spot for him to recover. If you do not, then it's best to cut him now. he not going to do anything for anyone until July 1 at the absolute earliest.

Can't disagree at all, but IF he starts closing at week 9, and this maybe a pipe dream, that will give him 18 weeks of closer duty. Is it unfair to predict 1.5 saves per week on a team that's probably going to win 90 games this year.

I haven't done research on this, but I'm sure you guys have. What is the "average" percentage of saves per team victory? I know it will vary, but for some reason I use 40%. If the Cards win 90 games, there "could" be an opportunity for around 36 saves, or about 6 per month. Is this unfair guesswork?

My 25-30 came from him assuming the closer role around mid May. I'm hoping I'll know in two weeks whether to hold or cut bait.

I understand, but you seem to be assuming a lot. He hasn't touched a ball since March 22nd. He may be cleared to START some baseball activities - but do you really think he's going to go from a torn UCL and 5 weeks of inactivity to closing games at a major league level in three weeks? And of course, no guarantee he goes uninjured for all 18 remaining weeks. And aren't you also assuming he will be as effective as he was last year? if you want to hold your breath for 18 weeks, that is certainly your call ...I don't know many around here who would.

Thanks for the response. Yes, I'm assuming if and when Motte comes back, he'll be the closer. Yes, I'm assuming he will be effective as the closer. Yes, I'm assuming he'll be as effective this year as he was last year. Yes, there are no guarantees he won't blow out his arm,,,AGAIN. If we were guaranteed everything, this game we play wouldn't be half as fun as it is. But, in this case, I'm not going to cut a prime closer until I know for sure he's worthless. It's not costing me anything to hold him on my roster right now. Once again, thanks for you opinion.

[da_big_kid_94]

It's why we post these boards...you say you have a prime close ...I say you have an accident waiting to happen. Good luck ...hope it works out.

[kentucky]

It's why we post these boards...you say you have a prime close ...I say you have an accident waiting to happen. Good luck ...hope it works out.

Thanks, you're probably correct, but I'm hoping you aren't.. Maybe in two weeks we'll know for sure. GL to you also.

[da_big_kid_94]

It's why we post these boards...you say you have a prime close ...I say you have an accident waiting to happen. Good luck ...hope it works out.

Thanks, you're probably correct, but I'm hoping you aren't.. Maybe in two weeks we'll know for sure. GL to you also.

TY ...it's opposing views that keep these boards lively. That and to look back several months to see where i was a schmuck!