Tiers

[viper]

I like the idea of tiers. I have been a victim of my lists to some extent these past few years and want to change to a less rigid drafting style. I await any article on drafting with tiers. I have some question I hope will be addressed.

1. Assuming you are drafting and the current tier is nearly depleted. At what point do you drop a tier while leaving higher tiered players on the board?

2. Which positions "demand" drafting at a higher tier and which positions are best to wait on?

3. How far [and how early] would you drop tiers for a specific category?

4. Are tiers fixed or are the somewhat dynamic? By this I mean are their tiers within tiers so that the better players within a tier can almost be though of as the worst players in a higher tier? This is beginning to sound like lists and not tiers.

There are more but I want discussions started.

To note, two years ago I started rating pitchers solely by tiers with. I had minimum requirement for being drafted which precluded some higher drafted pitchers. My pitching numbers have never been better. I can't believe I didn't apply the some concepts to hitting. My guess is that it is so much easier to apply projections to hitting.

[Todd Zola]

I'll make a couple of comments now and am curious to what others do. We'll have an article on tiered drafting in the Draft Kit.

To me, you do not do an entire draft strictly using a tiered approach. The key is using tiers to identify pockets of value, or pockets devoid of value, looking at positions or categorical contributions. You may only utilize these pockets a handful of times.

I use pocketed tiers for two general purposes:

1. Identify how I see projected strength and weakness in the actual player pool

2. Help mask personal drafting weakness and amplify drafting strength

With respect to the former, it is too much to ask to plan an entire draft based on tiers. You will miss out on value and be less likely to adjust to circumstantial differences from "an average draft". But even if you locate one position or statistical trend from the tiered approach, you have improved your chances of building a champion team.

With the latter, each individual does certain things well and not so well when it comes to player projection. Some are really good at finding pitchers in season, others at finding catchers. You can use the tiers to best take advantage of this. If you are better than others at speculating for saves, you know you can bypass a closer and when they are being drafted, that is the time to look at another position, possibly a sleeper while most are focusing on saves.

Like I said, there will be more discussion on this and similar topics and invite member contributions. A recurrent theme is going to be there is no right or wrong, just different when it comes to most things. Those who come here just to get my or Gary's opinions and treat it like fact are going to be missing out on a major utility of the site and our desire to promote intelligent discussion with a free-flowing exchange of ideas at the core.

[maddog]

not that i am much good at this fantasy BB thing,but a couple of years ago i stumbled upon baseball cafe, and they had a write up on the tiered approach.i have been using it every since.helps keep me a little more focused.the first year i won the local NL only pool i had 1 sheet of paper with me,i had great fun watching guys rifle through the mags and paper lists they had brought with them.

[cwk1963]

I've been playing Fantasy Baseball for a long time starting with weekly mail-in rosters. Along came the Internet and I found public places to play (Sandbox being very popular many years ago) but got tired of all the problems that went along with public leagues and sites after many years. Although I liked the enthusiasm of those 14 year olds who drafted all the Chicago Cubs they could because regardless of round or real-life ability nevermind fantasy ability, it didn't do much for the competition level. Hence, I got into an auction league and away from drafting. The only drafts I really participated in were the few mocks on MB and, later, FBB. I've gotten to the point where I'm soon going to take the plunge into the NFBC so I had better get more tuned up on drafting before I get my clock cleaned. I'm looking forward to the discussion and will put in my $.02 worth while looking to learn more of the strategies in this format.

[bigjonempire]

I love using tiered drafting. It makes drafting a cinch. If you haven't used it, once you do, no other method will make you as happy.

[viper]

I love using tiered drafting. It makes drafting a cinch. If you haven't used it, once you do, no other method will make you as happy.

Drafting a fantasy baseball team is never a cinch. That is a concept I have never heard on the NFBC board.

[cwk1963]

I love using tiered drafting. It makes drafting a cinch. If you haven't used it, once you do, no other method will make you as happy.

Drafting a fantasy baseball team is never a cinch. That is a concept I have never heard on the NFBC board.

I think what was meant was the process or system of using tiered drafting made it a cinch for him as compared to other forms of drafting - not necessarily that drafting itself is easy.

[Guest]

I think the most applicable thing to tiered drafting (well, any drafting process) is that everyone has their own style to doing it, and one should try and draft according to the method that "feels" right to them.

I play mostly auction leagues right now, with only a NFBC satellite and a couple locals on Yahoo done as drafts. Whereas in football I've been drafting for 10+years. I have a method in football I'm completely comfortable with and could do "in a cinch" with success. For example, Joe Bryant at Footballguys has marketed their VBD drafting model for years and it does a lot of people a lot of good, but using VBD leaves me a complete mess at the draft table. Again, just each has to season to their own taste.

Whereas in baseball, I still am working to this day on a process that truly feels like a glove to me. I have a lot of observations on the subject but look to many of the minds here to aid in the process. But I think any site that ever offered a one-size fits all process would be ignoring reality. Which is where we come in, to raise the pros and cons of each, and see what works best for each user.

[bigjonempire]

I love using tiered drafting. It makes drafting a cinch. If you haven't used it, once you do, no other method will make you as happy.

Drafting a fantasy baseball team is never a cinch. That is a concept I have never heard on the NFBC board.

I think what was meant was the process or system of using tiered drafting made it a cinch for him as compared to other forms of drafting - not necessarily that drafting itself is easy.

Exactly. If it was easy I wouldn't do it.

[maddog]

as much money as i sink into this "hobby" every year,if it was easy i would play one heck of a lot more!!

[SteveB]

I myself have used a tier system for quite a few years similar to the one Perry made up a few years ago with the auction priceing tiers.

This is going to sound wierd probably but i dont tier by position and tend to tier based on stats. I tier the HRs list the guys down and then do the same for SBs etc. I try to target my desired numbers and use that to draft the most value for what i am looking for.

Its not the only thing i use but i tend to look at it more than anything else when i am drafting.

I have won quite a few leagues with this approach the biggest downfall is when injuries kill projections.

[CubFan]

I too have used a tiered system based on primary positions played and projected stats/expected auction inflated prices. It helps me keep things in a more organized manner although I do spend alot of time flipping through the 5 or 6 pages.

I also break down my roster slots with assigned prices and names of players who might fit in. I have 2 or 3 models to work off of in case one of my pre-draft strategies takes a left on me.

[Mojo Jojo]

i usually make a list of guys i could live with at each position...

then i look at the positions and the numbers of players representing that position which gives me some idea of position scarcity...

then i spend a lot of time doing mock drafts...this gives me a general idea of where guys are going and what round i need to think about picking someone if i really want them (i.e. i can't live with the choices left)

and thats about it...it seems to work a lot better for football for me. not sure why but i think it might have to do with i am much more specific and the player pools are much smaller. i tend to be more general with baseball - i should pick a pitcher in a particular round, or i need a starter now, etc - and that hasn't worked out as well. however, this year i am going to be more specific...i remember doing really well when i notated round numbers next to players. i do believe rotoworld has an ADP (average draft position) article they update...which is another good source to correlate your numbers with. hmm, ADP in the draft kit....i wonder....

i think another very helpful article would be after-draft/in-season management. obviously, it isn't "draft kit" material, but it isn't very often the winner at the draft wins the league.

another interesting piece would be on the correlation of hot/cold starts and players overall numbers...i think an advantage could be gained there having some percentage on the success of either cutting bait and buying low.

[Todd Zola]

i usually make a list of guys i could live with at each position...

then i look at the positions and the numbers of players representing that position which gives me some idea of position scarcity...

then i spend a lot of time doing mock drafts...this gives me a general idea of where guys are going and what round i need to think about picking someone if i really want them (i.e. i can't live with the choices left)

and thats about it...it seems to work a lot better for football for me. not sure why but i think it might have to do with i am much more specific and the player pools are much smaller. i tend to be more general with baseball - i should pick a pitcher in a particular round, or i need a starter now, etc - and that hasn't worked out as well. however, this year i am going to be more specific...i remember doing really well when i notated round numbers next to players. i do believe rotoworld has an ADP (average draft position) article they update...which is another good source to correlate your numbers with. hmm, ADP in the draft kit....i wonder....

i think another very helpful article would be after-draft/in-season management. obviously, it isn't "draft kit" material, but it isn't very often the winner at the draft wins the league.

another interesting piece would be on the correlation of hot/cold starts and players overall numbers...i think an advantage could be gained there having some percentage on the success of either cutting bait and buying low.

RE: ADP -- we have an excellent relationship with the guys at Mock Draft Central, in fact we will soon be supplying them our projections for use in their standings predictor tool. I am pretty sure we can arrange for an ADP, we have in the past.

Speaking of ADP, some of my associates have suggested to me that occasionally I will have to sell the site a bit in terms of the type of cutting edge material we will be providing. ADPs have been very popular the past couple of season, but I was leading that bandwagon, supplying ADPs for NFBC satellite leagues 6 years ago - I usually play in several and I would solicit others from the readers and tabulate them. Now, MDC provides them as a service to the NFBC.

Anyway...

Re: in season management pieces, we are still in process of determining content. It is doubtful we will have anything specifically for our paying customers, but you can be certain we will still be active in-season on the blog, newsletter and providing some occasional pieces for Creative Sports. In addition, often a well-posed forum question serves a better purpose than anything Gary or I can churn out, as you get a varied array of opinions and perspectives.

Re: hot/cold starts -- studies like this are one reason I opted to break off and relaunch the site. I have developed a team tracker that is a great tool to help look into questions like this. I will soon make available the tracker from the 2008 season. Basically, you can input any start date and end date you choose and generate stats for each player. You can focus on those that do not meet your filter and see how they did the rest of the season, something like that. Part of the pay content will be the 2009 tool updated daily. I also should mention that BaseballHQ has done some work on the subject, but I have different ideas with respect to the approach and the application.

[viper]

there is such a huge problem with ADPs that I have questioned their helpfulness after about the halfway point in the ADP-ed draft.

In order to keep drafts moving, there is a master list which takes over whenever a person leaves the draft. That master list can cause undo influence on the resultant set of ADPs. If everyone stayed all the way through the draft, all would be great but we all know they don't. I don't know exactly how to resolve this problem. An example was last year when Josh Fields and Cory Patterson were moderately high on the MDC master lists. They stayed there in the ADPs. Other problems exist if ADP intermingle 15 team & smaller leagues. These are obvious.

The absolute best ADP is the one produced by the several NFBC league drafted at the main event. They are great for leagues drafted after that point in time but not before. I like ADP for abouit the first 15 rounds of a NFBC draft. After that point I feel their value diminishes quickly.

[cwk1963]

Re: hot/cold starts -- studies like this are one reason I opted to break off and relaunch the site. I have developed a team tracker that is a great tool to help look into questions like this. I will soon make available the tracker from the 2008 season. Basically, you can input any start date and end date you choose and generate stats for each player. You can focus on those that do not meet your filter and see how they did the rest of the season, something like that. Part of the pay content will be the 2009 tool updated daily. I also should mention that BaseballHQ has done some work on the subject, but I have different ideas with respect to the approach and the application.

If I'm thinking of the same thing, could we call it START instead of SART? To me, SART sounds too much like..........ummmm, well, FART.

[Todd Zola]

Re: hot/cold starts -- studies like this are one reason I opted to break off and relaunch the site. I have developed a team tracker that is a great tool to help look into questions like this. I will soon make available the tracker from the 2008 season. Basically, you can input any start date and end date you choose and generate stats for each player. You can focus on those that do not meet your filter and see how they did the rest of the season, something like that. Part of the pay content will be the 2009 tool updated daily. I also should mention that BaseballHQ has done some work on the subject, but I have different ideas with respect to the approach and the application.

If I'm thinking of the same thing, could we call it START instead of SART? To me, SART sounds too much like..........ummmm, well, FART.

SART is the standings and roster tracker, which will also be available.

ZIDDY is the team tracker.

Both will have new names.

As will PAUL.

[Todd Zola]

there is such a huge problem with ADPs that I have questioned their helpfulness after about the halfway point in the ADP-ed draft.

In order to keep drafts moving, there is a master list which takes over whenever a person leaves the draft. That master list can cause undo influence on the resultant set of ADPs. If everyone stayed all the way through the draft, all would be great but we all know they don't. I don't know exactly how to resolve this problem. An example was last year when Josh Fields and Cory Patterson were moderately high on the MDC master lists. They stayed there in the ADPs. Other problems exist if ADP intermingle 15 team & smaller leagues. These are obvious.

The absolute best ADP is the one produced by the several NFBC league drafted at the main event. They are great for leagues drafted after that point in time but not before. I like ADP for abouit the first 15 rounds of a NFBC draft. After that point I feel their value diminishes quickly.

To me, the BEST information is that which others do not have. Four or five years ago, using ADP was the exception, not the rule. You could gain a distinct advantage a couple of times each draft by having an idea that you can wait a round on a player, or you have to jump now as he will be gone next turn. Now, everyone has one with them at the draft table and what is sometimes happening is owners are reaching for the guys they want, forfeiting or reducing the profit they can realize from that player. There are ways to take advantage which we will discuss in the draft kit.