Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

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shif6
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Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#1 Post by shif6 » February 26th, 2013, 8:19 am

In the absence of unusual runs, when do you think it is important to take pitchers? As a rule of thumb, I have been waiting to the fifth and seventh rounds to take starting pitchers in mock drafts (losing out on a top tier pitcher, but getting very good pitchers) and, if possible, to the 10th for a first closer. I regard this as a mild form of "bully hitting." My guess is that Captain Hook would say that this is too long for starters. In some years Todd would have said no problem. This year, not so sure.

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#2 Post by Todd Zola » February 26th, 2013, 9:32 am

It's not when but who.

My process is "draft the pitcher, not the round."

I tier the pitchers by ERA/ratio.

I decide what I want my final ERA/WHIP to be

I map out several paths to get there such as

1 from T1, 1 from T3, 2 from T4...
2 from T2, 1 from T3, 1 from T4...
1 from T2, 2 from T3, 2 from T4....

I use a numerical scoring system which I am going to write up and file for ESPN Insider as well as Platinum subscribers next week.' Closers are factored in as well.

The idea is, I don't care what round it is -- every draft has its own ebb and flow. I know what I need the composition of my staff to look like so I time my picks accordingly and have several pre-planned options to get there. One will start with an ace but I have yet to use that except in LABR. I usually start in tier 2 or tier 3.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#3 Post by shif6 » February 26th, 2013, 10:24 am

Very interesting. I am thinking that rounds 5 and 7 get tier two pitchers under current adp's and drafts which roughly follow them, but I look forward to the column.

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#4 Post by Todd Zola » February 26th, 2013, 10:30 am

I'd ignore the ADP and follow the flow of the draft

Your mileage may vary
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#5 Post by deansdaddy » February 26th, 2013, 11:09 pm

Yes - please listen to Todd here and leave your ADP when you enter the draft room. The flow of pitching will be unpredictable. It will not match your mock drafts, especially if they are over at MDC.

I like to think I intuitely do what Todd does with pitching - I target guys from different tiers - and look for skills I want. I don't use a scoring system - but I don't speak numerish either. :lol:
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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#6 Post by Captain Hook » February 27th, 2013, 12:24 am

The KEY word in your request is "satellite" - that means you are not talking main event and playing against 400 teams but just battling for the money in a 15 (or 12) team league.

In which case what Todd says is even more important.

In the main event I would argue that if you wait until round 5 to take your first SP you will never catch up in strikeouts (unless you do it at the expense of saves).

Waiting until round 10 for closers is not a problem and recommended

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#7 Post by Black Sox » February 28th, 2013, 2:18 pm

Todd Zola wrote:It's not when but who.

My process is "draft the pitcher, not the round."

I tier the pitchers by ERA/ratio.

I decide what I want my final ERA/WHIP to be

I map out several paths to get there such as

1 from T1, 1 from T3, 2 from T4...
2 from T2, 1 from T3, 1 from T4...
1 from T2, 2 from T3, 2 from T4....

I use a numerical scoring system which I am going to write up and file for ESPN Insider as well as Platinum subscribers next week.' Closers are factored in as well.

The idea is, I don't care what round it is -- every draft has its own ebb and flow. I know what I need the composition of my staff to look like so I time my picks accordingly and have several pre-planned options to get there. One will start with an ace but I have yet to use that except in LABR. I usually start in tier 2 or tier 3.
Todd,

Typically how big are your tiers? It would seem to me while it's easy to say I don't care and to let the draft follow an ebb and flow in a 15 team draft don't you run the risk of missing out on a tier completly? You can say I want 1 from tier 2 and 1 from tier 3, but with 29 picks in between don't you run the risk of missing tiers completly?
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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#8 Post by Todd Zola » February 28th, 2013, 2:21 pm

updating projections now -- will give a rough idea of how many in each in a bit

FWIW - next week's ESPN/Platinum piece discusses this (though I have written about on the main site in previous springs)
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#9 Post by Todd Zola » February 28th, 2013, 3:43 pm

rough outline of tiers (not necessarily based on projected value, also considers upside

TIER 1 - 3
TIER 2 - 12
TIER 3 - 25
TIER 4 - 15
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

Captain Hook

Re: Pitcher selection NFBC satellite first ten rounds

#10 Post by Captain Hook » February 28th, 2013, 7:18 pm

I am going to again caution that "satellite leagues" are different than main event or D&H leagues with many, many leagues going for overall prizes.

BUT as an example from two, $ but not NFBC 15 team leagues, here is the distribution of pitchers drafted by round

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
0 - 4 - 2 - 5 - 6 -10 -6 -4 - 1 - 8
and
2 - 1 - 6 - 4 - 5 - 8 - 7 -2 - 5 - 8

Only Kimbrel went in the fourth round in each draft
In the first draft 2 more closers in the 6th with 1 in the 7th/8th, and two more in the 9th
In the 2nd draft 3 in the 7th, 1 in the 8th, with 3 in the 9th and 3 in the 10th
so only 7 or 8 closers in the first ten rounds

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