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 Post subject: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 19th, 2013, 7:50 pm 
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Joined: January 1st, 2009, 8:32 am
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I play in a 12 team keeper league. This year we have 2 new teams with no keepers and $260 to spend on 23 players.

How can I figure the bidding values?

I have $10 to spend per 14 players.

Should it really matter that 2 teams have $260 to spend on their team?

Thank You.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 21st, 2013, 1:56 am 
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Joined: January 3rd, 2009, 8:22 pm
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Location: Camino, CA
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I'm far from an expert, but here's my take on this:

1. The 2 additional teams should make the value of each player, on average, higher. Since you're going from 12 teams to 14 teams (if I read the question correctly), you could figure that each player would be roughly 2/12 (17%) more valuable (and thus more costly in an auction). I know it isn't linear, so maybe someone can give a better formula. If you have HQ projections, you could compare the MIX12 and MIX15 values, but discount the MIX15 values a little.

2. Mitigating this somewhat is that since the two new teams have no keepers, they actually HELP the inflation picture, since they will buy all of their players at inflated prices.

3. I think the net adjustments would be:

a) Possibly keep some players who you might not have kept before the expansion (since their values are now higher).
b) Expect to pay more for players/stats than last year.
c) Expect the additional cost to be higher for the higher-priced players. For example, if Miguel Cabrera went for $45 last year, he might go for $55 this year, while a guy who went for $1 last year might go for $1 or $2 this year.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 21st, 2013, 10:08 am 
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Joined: January 1st, 2009, 8:32 am
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Thanks for your help.

I should have put in my post, our league last year had 12 teams and 2 owners drop out so this year we have 2 new owners

and we are back to 12 teams. Does that change the answer you sent me?

Thanks,

BK


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 Post subject: Re: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 21st, 2013, 10:48 am 
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First off, why should Bob compare HQ projections when every year he is the FIRST PERSON to sign up for our projections 8-)

And not that it matter in this case, but you don't just multiply by 17%, you need to recalculate the values for the 14 team league based on replacement for the 14 team league which can be done on the CVRC.

Bob - what do you mean by "I have $10 to spend per 14 players."

Do you have $140 and need to buy 10 players?

How many keepers are there per team?

And not that it matters, but why don't the new owners get to choose keepers from the team they inherited?

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 Post subject: Re: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 22nd, 2013, 2:12 am 
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rk7878 wrote:
Thanks for your help.

I should have put in my post, our league last year had 12 teams and 2 owners drop out so this year we have 2 new owners

and we are back to 12 teams. Does that change the answer you sent me?

Thanks,

BK


Yep, sure does. Forget the impact of expansion, since there is none. That leaves only the decrease in inflation, along with a subjective "feel" that the 2 new owners will spend early. The amount of the inflation decrease depends on the specifics of the keepers on the 10 returning teams, and who might have been kept on the 2 old teams, but cannot be kept now.

Assuming inflation goes down, as is likely, the impacts are:

1. Players should cost less, on average, than they did last year. Probably not a lot less, but it depends on the specifics.
2. Given that, you might be inclined to throw back a player or two who you might have kept otherwise.
3. I would guess that on the high end players there will be no decrease in cost, and may even be an increase, as the 2 teams with the big budgets will likely drive up the cost of those players.
4. If that happens (i.e. if the two $260 teams spend early) there will likely be more bargains available in the middle and later portions of the auction.

In your specific situation, where you're keeping 9 players and have $140 for 14, I'd be inclined to avoid the price wars early, but be somewhat aggressive (but don't overspend) once the initial spurt of pricey guys winds down. Of course it depends on your league's typical auction dynamics, as well.


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 Post subject: Re: 2 New Teams
PostPosted: February 22nd, 2013, 10:12 am 
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Joined: January 1st, 2009, 8:32 am
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Thank you all for your help.

Bob Krahn


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