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 Post subject: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 10:30 am 
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Todd

Been thinking about this and wondering about properly using the CVRC tool to create my cheat sheets. The problem is that when you review the values they don't make match up to what I would consider a realistic draft sheet. Let me start by saying that I agree with the projections being used ( we all have opinions that players might outperform a projection but I like the across the board baseline they create ) So if I agree with the projections why if I run the tool does it not create a cheat sheet I can use with little to no manipulation on my part? I'll give an example I ran the CVRC on the default 15 team 2 pool setting. When I look at OF I see the following ranks/$$ figures

21 Pierre, Juan $19 .283 1 44 88 46
22 Bruce, Jay $18 .258 31 95 88 8
23 Hamilton, Josh $18 .274 27 94 80 7
26 Pagan, Angel $17 .277 8 61 88 31
30 Heyward, Jason $17 .260 25 75 86 17

So out of the following players the most valuable is Pierre at $19? Am I miss using the tool or looking at it the wrong way? If I agree with the projections how is it that Pierre is worth $2 more than Heyward? Part of why I'm asking this is that I'm trying to eliminate name bias out of my player ranks and valuation. Too often I feel like I over value a player based on who they are and not soley based on the counting stats they will bring to my team.

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 Post subject: Re: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 10:49 am 
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It's a case of market value versus value in a vacuum, specifically steals.

If you blindly use the rankings, your team will have 1000 steals and 50 HR (an exaggeration).

You have to strategically decide how you want to put steals on your roster - realizing the market tends NOT to pay full value for steals.

- get a couple of steal specialists like Pierre?

- a few here and a few there

if you choose the former, once you have your steals guys, the rest of the speedsters have limited intrinsic value to your roster so you drop them down or even eliminate them.

If you choose the latter, then the speedsters have limited value from the onset so you drop them to a point where you don't want to pass on the potential or even eliminate them altogether.

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 Post subject: Re: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 10:53 am 
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Black Sox wrote:
Todd

Been thinking about this and wondering about properly using the CVRC tool to create my cheat sheets. The problem is that when you review the values they don't make match up to what I would consider a realistic draft sheet. Let me start by saying that I agree with the projections being used ( we all have opinions that players might outperform a projection but I like the across the board baseline they create ) So if I agree with the projections why if I run the tool does it not create a cheat sheet I can use with little to no manipulation on my part? I'll give an example I ran the CVRC on the default 15 team 2 pool setting. When I look at OF I see the following ranks/$$ figures

21 Pierre, Juan $19 .283 1 44 88 46
22 Bruce, Jay $18 .258 31 95 88 8
23 Hamilton, Josh $18 .274 27 94 80 7
26 Pagan, Angel $17 .277 8 61 88 31
30 Heyward, Jason $17 .260 25 75 86 17

So out of the following players the most valuable is Pierre at $19? Am I miss using the tool or looking at it the wrong way? If I agree with the projections how is it that Pierre is worth $2 more than Heyward? Part of why I'm asking this is that I'm trying to eliminate name bias out of my player ranks and valuation. Too often I feel like I over value a player based on who they are and not soley based on the counting stats they will bring to my team.


As Todd says you need to discount the steals a tad which moves Pierre and Pagan below the three good hitters.

I also think Hamilton should get an adjustment up AND if your first few picks give you any BA ballast that you would move Bruce and Heyward up a little.

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 Post subject: Re: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 11:51 am 
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Todd/ Perry

Thanks for the response. I understand a little better what you mean. I think I need to play with the catagory weights more to match up better with my player values and how I draft.

Some results from different cat weights ( I moved SB down to .50 for all variations ) Cat weight was left at 1 unless noted.

Old Rank Name New Rank New $

HR/BA 1.25
21 Pierre 39 $13
22 Bruce 19 $19
23 Hamilton 18 $19
26 Pagan 35 $14
30 Heyward 25 $16


HR 1.50
21 Pierre 44 $11
22 Bruce 17 $20
23 Hamilton 18 $20
26 Pagan 36 $12
30 Heyward 25 $17


HR 1.50 RBI 1.25 R .75
21 Pierre 51 $10
22 Bruce 16 $20
23 Hamilton 18 $20
26 Pagan 40 $12
30 Heyward 25 $16

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 Post subject: Re: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 12:55 pm 
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This dicussion also got me thinking. Would there be any value in continually running the CVRC and clearing out players as they are drafted to continually get the available players value in relation to whats left in the draft pool? While it won't give you their value as it relates to your team I would think this would have value and would be easy to do in a slow draft. Good idea or simply redundent?

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 Post subject: Re: Cheat Sheets vs CVRC ranks
PostPosted: January 13th, 2013, 1:06 pm 
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Black Sox wrote:
This dicussion also got me thinking. Would there be any value in continually running the CVRC and clearing out players as they are drafted to continually get the available players value in relation to whats left in the draft pool? While it won't give you their value as it relates to your team I would think this would have value and would be easy to do in a slow draft. Good idea or simply redundent?


Yes and no -- this is basically tracking inflation (and this is done by MastersDraft).

But as you suggest, it is still the INTRINSIC VALUE TO YOUR TEAM that matters the most.

Every bit of information is actionable if you understand what it is telling you.

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I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord

Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord

You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord


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