When I first started playing this game 20 years ago, I read that any pitcher who produced an ERA lower than the last place team's ERA, that pitcher is producing positive value. But I'm bothered by the big difference between what the CVRC shows and what the highest ERA last season was. In the last 6 years, the lowest the last place ERA ever got was 4.52. Choosing the number to use as a baseline for the ERA, WHIP and BA has always been difficult.
My question is what ERA should be used as a baseline? The same question applies to WHIP, although the difference is smaller.
ETA: Sorry, I just noticed that topic was discussed in a previous post. You can ignore this.
Joined: February 4th, 2009, 9:38 pm Posts: 614 Preferred Style: AL only 5X5 keeper auction
I know that you are out of town this weekend, so there is no need to answer this until you have time.
I noticed when I downloaded the hitting CVRC for the first time this year that the category weights showed even weighting. I didn't think much about that because sometimes it comes up with mixed league, 12 team, 15 team, etc. Today I read that you think the category weights should be evenly weighted among the categories. It says that you think that it reflects the values that players are going for this year.
That is a very dramatic shift from 2012 when the weighting IIRC was 1.25 for home runs, 1.10 for RBI, with BA and SB being weighted less to compensate.
I was curious as to what convinced you to make the shift. I think in the past it was based on research that winning teams tended to do well in HR and RBI. Has that tendency changed? I thought that the weighting last year was a little heavy toward HR and RBI and used 1.2 for HR and 1 for RBI, with BA going to .95 and stolen bases gaining the rest.
I have had good luck with weighting it some without going to far. I'm trying to figure out whether the same market forces that changed your mind are going to change players value in an established league with a low rate of turnover among the owners.
I'm actually back in town for the weekend but heading to the WWL in Bristol CT next week for the Fantasy Baseball Summit.
Winners still kill it in the HR category and worry the least about steals.
The category distribution for SB is still different than the others (lower threshold, higher percentage on top) but the curve has flattened some.
But, perhaps because there are more steals now, people are paying market value for them.
The CER (Category Efficiency Ratings, driving force for the weightings) were as much market driven as anything. Players were always "worth" the value with weighting being equal - it just didn't cost that much to get them steals so if we kept them at 1 across the board, our users would be well short in power and overloaded in speed unless they made the adjustment -- so we made it for them.
That adjustment is no longer necessary.
_________________ Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
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