Quoting myself from a December piece (I am higher on Holland now but otherwise, and it turns out Motte is being picked before Papelbon but the rest is status quo )
I'm sure this will change as some of the situations in flux flesh out, but I am finding the spot I like to take closers to be weaker than normal. I prefer to pass on the upper echelon, but I don't like to toss my line in the speculative seas either. If I were to list the guys I can comfortably target, it would be one name -- Jason Motte. I'm not going to be the guy that takes Craig Kimbrel. I'm probably going to pass on Jonathan Papelbon as well, but maybe not. That's really it for the "sure things." Motte would be the next safest, but since he doesn't have the reputation yet, he is still sliding a bit.
Think about it. Will Mariano Rivera be his old self? Can Joe Nathan stay healthy? Will Joel Hanrahan and John Axford get their walks back in check? Can Huston Street and Andrew Bailey stay healthy? For that matter, has anyone actually seen Street and Bailey together? My theory is they are actually one guy and this is a ruse to pull two salaries. What about Steve Cishek, Tom Wilhelmsen, Addison Reed, Greg Holland and Glen Perkins - can they hold the gig for 162? Is Sergio Romo durable enough? Where will Rafael Soriano sign and what will his role be? Brandon League -- really? Will Chris Perez and Hanrahan be traded? If you think Jim Johnson will repeat, I have a bridge I'd like you to look at. If you think Fernando Rodney will repeat --well, he just may, with an ERA correction, but are you willing to pay for it? How long before Kyuji Fujikawa (and the horse he rode in on) supplants Carlos Marmol? What happens if Jonathan Broxton struggles and so does Aroldis Chapman? Brandon League -- REALLY?!?!?! I've been in two drafts where Kenley Jansen was taken before Broxton and this was AFTER the announcement that League was the closer. Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard? Who will get both of the Astro saves? Will Brian Wilson and Ryan Madson regain form after Tommy John surgery?
You know, Grant Balfour is looking pretty good right now.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord