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 Post subject: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 12:23 pm 
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Perry, saw your post on Bob Dutton's story in the KCStar about Moore shopping Wil Myers. Why are you against trading for Shields or Lester? Is it because they can be controlled for only 2 years vs 6 years of Myers? Not saying I am for trading Myers for either one but wanted to hear your arguments. I too would love to trade him for Price but I don't see the Rays trading a superstar straight up for a minor leaguer, even one as good as Myers. The road is littered with can't miss prospects who eather failed or took forever to reach their potential (exhibit A: Alex Gordon...and he is only a very good player, not a superstar). I've always viewed minor leaguers as trading chips for GMs. Who from TB or Oakland, two teams in need of hitting and have some pitching depth, would be realistic targets? In order of preference Moore, Hellickson, Parker and Anderson (injury prone?).

My preference is for Glass to open his wallet and get Anibal Sanchez. His/Glass stated $70 million payroll ceiling is ludicrous when he is on record as saying he will spend when they are ready to contend. The pieces of the puzzle are there except for the SP. It's now or never. Sam Mellinger had an excellent piece in today's paper http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/27/3937202/time-is-now-for-glass-to-increase.html. Greinke is too rich and burned his bridge when he left KC. No one else on the market is worthy of a #2.

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Yan Gomes $1
1B/3B - Donaldson $7, Parmalee $1, Pearce $1
2B/SS - A. Cabrera $19, Zobrist $27, Forsythe $1
OF - Trout $40, Brantley $24, Rios $30, J. Gomes $1, Springer $39
UT - Ortiz $4
SP - Scherzer $23, Moore $4, Smyly $1, Santiago $3, Shoemaker $3, M. Gonzalez $4
RP - Bentances $1, Putnam $3, Chavez $1
DL - Parker $2, Moreland $2, Blanks $1
minors -


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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 1:06 pm 
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CubFan wrote:
Perry, saw your post on Bob Dutton's story in the KCStar about Moore shopping Wil Myers. Why are you against trading for Shields or Lester? Is it because they can be controlled for only 2 years vs 6 years of Myers? Not saying I am for trading Myers for either one but wanted to hear your arguments. I too would love to trade him for Price but I don't see the Rays trading a superstar straight up for a minor leaguer, even one as good as Myers. The road is littered with can't miss prospects who eather failed or took forever to reach their potential (exhibit A: Alex Gordon...and he is only a very good player, not a superstar). I've always viewed minor leaguers as trading chips for GMs. Who from TB or Oakland, two teams in need of hitting and have some pitching depth, would be realistic targets? In order of preference Moore, Hellickson, Parker and Anderson (injury prone?).

My preference is for Glass to open his wallet and get Anibal Sanchez. His/Glass stated $70 million payroll ceiling is ludicrous when he is on record as saying he will spend when they are ready to contend. The pieces of the puzzle are there except for the SP. It's now or never. Sam Mellinger had an excellent piece in today's paper http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/27/3937202/time-is-now-for-glass-to-increase.html. Greinke is too rich and burned his bridge when he left KC. No one else on the market is worthy of a #2.


Good questions - let me first say that I am NOT against trading Myers or any other prospect .....BUT you have to get the right piece to trade a very good, young hitter who the team will have under control for a minimum of SIX years. You can't get a Lester who Used to be good - what if what we saw in 2012 was what he is for 2013 and beyond? Glass would then be a laughing stock for years - trade a prized asset for a Name but one without value.

Shields is better but as you suggest has only two (or one) years left on current contract so it would have to be WELL timed - and that is a HUGE part of these prospect trades .... 1) when to trade them; and 2) how much to get BOTH of which have to be concurrent with the state of the MLB team. Thus trading for a pitcher who can only help for a year can't be until you are right THERE in terms of winning the division - IMHO the Royals are getting very close but aren't there yet - now part of that is because of TERRIBLE previous trades - last year was classic..... Good on trading high on Melky, but VERY bad on trading for Jonathan Sanchez. ANY fantasy player could have immediately said - Sanchez? Do you know what his WHIP was? Did you see him pitch? Alas they were mesmerized by the potential strikeouts and thought they could unleash the potential (ludicrous given their selection of pitching coaches at the ML level). So the plan was good - trade surplus hitting for a SP for the rotation but the execution was TURRIBL.

So IF they trade Myers - and again I am not against it ..... they don't want to be like Stoneham and the Angels and have a property aka Brandon Wood circa 2005 that they could get a ton for and not trade him and then not have anything. Now Wil Myers is a much better all around hitter, not as much pop as Wood, but he can play OF and DH without affecting his hitting. So trade Myers if you want to use your best prospect but you damn well better get back a REAL valuable asset (and yes otoh don't pass the opportunity to trade for the right player - Price or Profar or even two lesser say, Hellickson and Davis/or/Niemann.

Bottom line for Royals - they MUST improve their starting pitching THIS year - I am not against the Guthrie signing or the Ervin Santana trade - both could work (but of course might not) and are at okay prices (yes they might have been bidding against themselves for Guthrie's third year but you have to take some chances and not signing him When they had a chance would have IMO been worse).

They DO have help coming on the mound BUT it won't be there this year so trade Myers or better yet some of their very good IF prospects and take a chance you get the right SP .... BUT don't trade him for Lester when all you might get is chicken & beer - or a Shields where your window is not aligned (now it could work but it would only really be for 2014 then you lose him and have nada). DO trade him IF you get an excellent SP that you will have for three years (or more).

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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 1:26 pm 
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Yes, there is always that risk that Myers could be a Wood, circa 2005. Agree with your opinion on Lester, especially since word is he lost velocity on his fastball this year.....(don't remind me of my concerns earlier in the year about King Felix :oops: ). Also agree if they trade him they need to be able to control that SP for 3+ years. Thus the interest in Hellickson. Something I just thought of and one has to be aware that part of the success (some may say alot) comes from having Molina behind the plate. He is THE best at framing pitches and just a half dozen or so at the right time can be the difference between winning and losing the game.....the count changes everything. Forgot about Niemann but he is not the #1 or #2 Moore is looking for. Trade a lesser prospect for him or even Cain (starting to think Cain is going to be an injury problem going forward).

Given the multitude of arm problems (surgeries) a number of their top SP in the minors have had I'm becoming more convinced its an organizational thing. Plus, except for Greinke they haven't developed any top notch SP since Appier. So, my confidence in KC developing any of their minor league SP is low. Better off trading them to another organization that knows how to develop SP and get one of theirs in return. Thus the interest in TB's and Oakland's SP.....they know how to develop their talent.

If I were spending Glass's money ( I should be so lucky :lol: ) I'd ante up for Sanchez. No history of arm trouble (same as Shields).

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Yan Gomes $1
1B/3B - Donaldson $7, Parmalee $1, Pearce $1
2B/SS - A. Cabrera $19, Zobrist $27, Forsythe $1
OF - Trout $40, Brantley $24, Rios $30, J. Gomes $1, Springer $39
UT - Ortiz $4
SP - Scherzer $23, Moore $4, Smyly $1, Santiago $3, Shoemaker $3, M. Gonzalez $4
RP - Bentances $1, Putnam $3, Chavez $1
DL - Parker $2, Moreland $2, Blanks $1
minors -


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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 1:38 pm 
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Good Post Cub Fan ................. but

1) Salvador Perez is one of if not THE best young catchers in the game and while he has to continue to develop to be as good a receiver as any Molina, he will be a better hitter than ALL of them

2) I don't see the injuries - really Lamb sticks out - Montgomery wasn't injured other than maybe mentally but hopefully he bounces back this year - as organizational. But the Royals like all clubs now are more freaked by injuries now and treating the pitchers perhaps too carefully but then when something does materialize be very vigilant and very careful

Unfortunately Anibal or his agent is shooting for the moon - they can't spend more than all the rest of their budget for a guy whose track record is not as good (I would do it for Price but he is not a FA)

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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 4:25 pm 
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1) agree with you 1000%. And KC got a huge sweetheart long term deal signed with him. There are a number of teams who'd rather have him than Myers.

2) Duffy and Paulino also had TJ surgery, although Paulino came over in a trade. Nonetheless he tore the ligament under KC's watch. Moore also knew that Duffy had a partial tear of his ligament for a couple of years but they deferred having surgery. That boggles my mind. Noel Arguelles missed all of 2010 due to shoulder surgery.

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Yan Gomes $1
1B/3B - Donaldson $7, Parmalee $1, Pearce $1
2B/SS - A. Cabrera $19, Zobrist $27, Forsythe $1
OF - Trout $40, Brantley $24, Rios $30, J. Gomes $1, Springer $39
UT - Ortiz $4
SP - Scherzer $23, Moore $4, Smyly $1, Santiago $3, Shoemaker $3, M. Gonzalez $4
RP - Bentances $1, Putnam $3, Chavez $1
DL - Parker $2, Moreland $2, Blanks $1
minors -


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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 28th, 2012, 4:41 pm 
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old line - not mine - but always true

99.9% of pitchers are in two categories
1) those who have already had arm trouble/surgery
2) those that will have arm trouble/surgery

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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 29th, 2012, 12:24 pm 
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Right now, Myers is probably at maximum value - because he's purely speculative. Too many can't misses missed (Pie , Corey Patterson, Loewen, Rowell, Andy Marte, Lars Anderson, Drabek ...you get the point). I don't want Lester at any discount right now. Sheilds? Maybe ...but I think there's better to be had. As for opening up the wallet? The fact they are looking to dump both Hochevar (arb eligible) and Chen (4.5M) to free up salary speaks volumes - signing Guthrie to a back loaded deal isn't indicative of a willingness to spend either.

I'd want Hellickson - but I'd want Moore or Mc Gee in the deal as well. Or ...I'd turn around and offer him to the Giants for Bumgartner and see the response there.

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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 29th, 2012, 11:59 pm 
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da_big_kid_94 wrote:
Right now, Myers is probably at maximum value - because he's purely speculative. Too many can't misses missed (Pie , Corey Patterson, Loewen, Rowell, Andy Marte, Lars Anderson, Drabek ...you get the point). I don't want Lester at any discount right now. Sheilds? Maybe ...but I think there's better to be had. As for opening up the wallet? The fact they are looking to dump both Hochevar (arb eligible) and Chen (4.5M) to free up salary speaks volumes - signing Guthrie to a back loaded deal isn't indicative of a willingness to spend either.

I'd want Hellickson - but I'd want Moore or Mc Gee in the deal as well. Or ...I'd turn around and offer him to the Giants for Bumgartner and see the response there.


Did I read that right....you're saying Myers for Hellickson PLUS Moore or McGee?

Hadn't thought about the NL but I like the idea of trading for Bumgartner. Team friendly contract and signed through 2015 with team options thereafter. SF is more of a pitcher's park than KC so his numbers likely to inflate, especially since many guys coming over from the NL initially struggle.

Just read an article tonight in the KC Star that said KC offered a $26 million/2 year deal to Dempster http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/29/3940310/contract-decisions-loom-for-royals.html#storylink=cpy Interesting. Glass saying their break even point is around a payroll of $70 million is totally garbage. Unless he is paying himself and son Dan an annual salary of $10 mil/yr and putting it under "team payroll" they should have around an additional $15-20 mil to spend this year (taken from recent Rany Jazayerli, Jeff Passen, and Sam Mellinger columns within the past few days. Also listened in on an interview with a guy from Baseball Prospectus who believes the Royals have the money to get another FA pitcher and still make a profit.)

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12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Yan Gomes $1
1B/3B - Donaldson $7, Parmalee $1, Pearce $1
2B/SS - A. Cabrera $19, Zobrist $27, Forsythe $1
OF - Trout $40, Brantley $24, Rios $30, J. Gomes $1, Springer $39
UT - Ortiz $4
SP - Scherzer $23, Moore $4, Smyly $1, Santiago $3, Shoemaker $3, M. Gonzalez $4
RP - Bentances $1, Putnam $3, Chavez $1
DL - Parker $2, Moreland $2, Blanks $1
minors -


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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 30th, 2012, 12:23 am 
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I think we will know shortly about Mr. Myers - if Royals could snag Dempster (a quality move IMO) that would curtail their pitching expeditions I think (it should they should just move Aaron Crow into the rotation and can replace him if they need to when Duffy or Paulino return).

But there is another rumor out there today moving Myers to the Mets for R.A. Dickey.
While I would hate for the Royals to lose Myers, Dickey makes sense and would give them enough starting pitching to contend this year in the CentrAL

We shall see .....

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 Post subject: Re: Moore shopping Wil Myers
PostPosted: November 30th, 2012, 9:04 am 
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Perry, read that rumored story as well. IMO last year screams "career year". Plus he's only under contract for one more year anyway. I personally would not trade Myers for a 38 year-old SP whose only out pitch is a knuckleball that those who throw it don't know where it's going most of the time. No way he is this effective going to the AL. Won't say he can't be effective but I'd rather trade Myers for a package that includes Hellickson or Moore where they control either one for a number of years. Heck I'd probably trade Myers for Bundy plus a good minor league bat. Rather offer Montgomery and another chip for Dickey.

Yeah, Dempster would be a great signing but looks like he is holding out for more. Would like to ink Sanchez but KC is not going to sign a pitcher for more than 3 years. They truly believe they have the necessary SP in the pipeline. Crow going back to the rotation would be a huge mistake IMO. He was lousy in the minors and he has only 2 plus pitches...fastball and slider. Nothing else is even league average. That's why he's had success in the pen. Heck sign Soria for an incentive laden 1 year deal with a team option in year 2 and move him into the rotation. He's got 3 or 4 plus pitches.

_________________
12 team AL only standard 5x5 H2H keeper league

C - Yan Gomes $1
1B/3B - Donaldson $7, Parmalee $1, Pearce $1
2B/SS - A. Cabrera $19, Zobrist $27, Forsythe $1
OF - Trout $40, Brantley $24, Rios $30, J. Gomes $1, Springer $39
UT - Ortiz $4
SP - Scherzer $23, Moore $4, Smyly $1, Santiago $3, Shoemaker $3, M. Gonzalez $4
RP - Bentances $1, Putnam $3, Chavez $1
DL - Parker $2, Moreland $2, Blanks $1
minors -


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