Fair question...here is what i do. They are 11 team AL and NL onlys - $260 4x4 ultra style.
In prior years, a 6 point score was perfection and someone worth targeting. I have kept these lists since the 2005 season so I can , at a glance, notice trends of progression or regression.
- First three are Shandler's categories (Control, HR/9, K/9)
- Then I added 125 IP or more (helps split relievers from starters), Ratio under 1.30 and ERA under 3.75
- I am going to add three more categories - BAA, % of 1st pitch strikes and team run differential (this one will require a lot of modification because of potential roster changes and some Kentucky windage).
The goal is to generate a list of, for want of a better term, pitchers of interest - pitchers who are really performing well but you may not notice they really are. It's an attempt to both include the pitcher's skills and account for the team he plays on. The first pitch category is not necessarily correlated to more outs. I would expect to see an indicative BAA for a pitcher wit a good 1st pitch strike %. I am a strong believer that the pitcher's most important pitch is strike 1. But I know these numbers aren't generated in a vacuum. One quick example - Bronson Arroyo. 2012? 68% first pitch strikes. Impressive - but now comes his BAA - .2673. THAT'S not good - especially in that park. So that tells me to look a little deeper. In 2006, he was a 5 point pitcher - he hasn't been better than three since. So here's a pitcher in a hitter's park who throws a lot of innings and is someone I'll leave for someone else.
On the other hand, Matt Harrison. 62% first pitch strikes - but a BAA of .2708! YET, his ERA is 3.29 and his Ratio is 1.26. To make things more interesting, he pitches in a VERY friendly hitter's park and has a lousy K ratio. That indicates to me that he strands a lot of base runners (especially with a mediocre K rate)- now I need to try and find out why - defense , hit luck, etc. He bears further investigation as well - he was a 6 last year and a 5 this year. he may be indication of one who's "talent" belies his numbers.
I don't need this to tell me about Sabathia or Lee or Verlander. I'm looking for guys like Vogelsong who i just might dismiss out of hand without really looking. it's not perfect - based on this , I was really high on Eric Bedard in 2012 - and you can see how that worked out. So this really isn't the definitive bid 'em or pass 'em list - it's just a tool that I'm looking to tweak. I use it to try and notice performances I may just as soon overlook without it - or, in the converse, prevent me from assuming things are present that really aren't.
Also, one other thing ...this process in not meant to be dismissive of relief pitchers - in fact, it is just as, if not more so, important when evaluating pitchers such as Jason Grilli who may have finally been used in the way best suited for him by the Pirates. The 125 IP helps separate the two disciplines.