Application of Inflation - Help Me Understand

[halos17]

Perhaps I'm off my rocker and maybe one of you can talk me straight here.

When calculating inflation, shouldn't you only consider inflation for those players in the Positive Player pool, (i.e. those players over $1)? I'm seeing it as 2 markets. You have 1 market for apples (postive pool) and another for oranges (negative player pool). You yourself should always buy in the apples market, but other owners will buy from both. As a result, shouldn't you only recalculate inflation when a player from the apples market is purchased? Something that does bother me about this is that when an "orange" is purchased, the total money that was available to purchase apples is less and how, if at all, does that affect the apples market?

Does that make sense? I'm just trying to get an understanding of what happens when a player outside of the positive pool is purchased. Why would that have any effect on the positive pool?

Help?

[Todd Zola]

By the book, here's what you should really do....

When someone is bought from outside the pool, not only should the money adjust like you suggest, but you should take the bottom ranked player at that position out of your draft-worthy pool and distribute that adjusted money amongst the adjusted pool.

[halos17]

By the book, here's what you should really do....

When someone is bought from outside the pool, not only should the money adjust like you suggest, but you should take the bottom ranked player at that position out of your draft-worthy pool and distribute that adjusted money amongst the adjusted pool.

So, as a hypothetical example:
1.) No players auctioned
2.) $998.40 available for pitching (12*260*.32)
3.) Greg Smith is the least valuable pitcher valued at $1.03
4.) Russ Ortiz (not in positive pool, -$3.08) is auctioned off first for $3.

To figure inflation, I subtract $3 from the $998.40 which gives 995.40 left to spend on pitching. I would then also subtract $1.03 from $998.40 to give me $997.37. Then divide 995.40 by 997.37 to give me 0.19% inflation?

Then I apply the inflation rate to the top 107 pitchers to get their adjusted value, correct? The -$3.08 value from Russ Ortiz does not come into play when calculating and I need not worry about adjusted values for those players outside of the [now] top 107 pitchers, correct?

Thanks for the help, Todd. I'm a software engineer and I've written my own draft apps on the side over the past few years for fun. I'm incorporating inflation into it this year. I want to get this right!

[Guest]

Correct. Inflation is irrelevant to the non-draftable guys.

Basically when Ortiz goes for $3, he replaces Smith's spot and value exactly as you described.

However, if a player worth $1 goes for $3, you have deflation in the pool. There are now more dollars of value in the pool than there are dollars to spend. So your end result shouldn't be inflation in that scenario.

[halos17]

Correct. Inflation is irrelevant to the non-draftable guys.

Basically when Ortiz goes for $3, he replaces Smith's spot and value exactly as you described.

However, if a player worth $1 goes for $3, you have deflation in the pool. There are now more dollars of value in the pool than there are dollars to spend. So your end result shouldn't be inflation in that scenario.

Awesome, thank you! I will tweak my calculations slightly to remove the last player, which I wasn't doing before.

Do you feel that category inflation is worth utilizing? I've tweaked my app to account for this and when applying my formulas against last year's auction for my league, at the end of the auction I'm getting some category inflation values in the 100's and in one case, over 1000%! Does that sound right?

[Todd Zola]

This is the same thing Gary and I have found when we play with it as well.

Personally, my current thinking is not to get so hung up on a PC calculated number when each league is different. I'd rather rely on my instincts with a focus on setting myself up to win over the long season than trying to win at the draft/auction.

[halos17]

This is the same thing Gary and I have found when we play with it as well.

Personally, my current thinking is not to get so hung up on a PC calculated number when each league is different. I'd rather rely on my instincts with a focus on setting myself up to win over the long season than trying to win at the draft/auction.

Oh, I totally agree with you. But, being the anal, detail-oriented, maniacal numbers freak that I am, I have to have the numbers right! I still go by feel and really focus on in-season pickups, but I have to have the numbers correct by nature!

Thanks so much. You guys have been a ton of help here.

[Todd Zola]

Jokes aside, the point is there is no such thing as right numbers.

It has taken me a little too long to learn that. I am hoping my results for the 2009 season give me a basis to go on a crusade next season with that as my focus.