Which of these 3 has the best skill set and would be most likely to continue their early success?
Thanks
Detwiler/Smyly/Miley
Re: Detwiler/Smyly/Miley
The problem is with two of them, we don't have ample data to get a grip on their skill set in MLB so it is pretty much speculation, educated speculation, but speculation nonetheless.
My vote goes to Smyly as his K rate and BB rate should be better than the others. He has a rather bizarre profile right now as his HR/9 and BABIP are basically "what they should be" but his LOB% is an unreal 94% (league average about 74%). Usually, you have a high LOB% if your hit rate is low or HR rate is low -- Smyly has just stranded almost all of his runners. This is NOT A SKILL, it is just DUMB LUCK. But, as suggested, his peripherals are quite good to help buffer the inevitable correction.
Detwiler has a low BABIP, leading to his low ERA.
Miley has a low BABIP AND a low HR/9.
My vote goes to Smyly as his K rate and BB rate should be better than the others. He has a rather bizarre profile right now as his HR/9 and BABIP are basically "what they should be" but his LOB% is an unreal 94% (league average about 74%). Usually, you have a high LOB% if your hit rate is low or HR rate is low -- Smyly has just stranded almost all of his runners. This is NOT A SKILL, it is just DUMB LUCK. But, as suggested, his peripherals are quite good to help buffer the inevitable correction.
Detwiler has a low BABIP, leading to his low ERA.
Miley has a low BABIP AND a low HR/9.
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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
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deansdaddy
Re: Detwiler/Smyly/Miley
Detwiler was a late round sleeper of mine on a lot of teams - so he has been a pleasant surprise.
Smyly (and Jenmar gomez of Cle) were two early grabs in my CBS AL-only squad that have been fantastic.
So I really like both these arms. However, after watching him pitch recently against Tex and NY, I would side with Todd here and say go with Smyly. Better pure strikeout stuff, better offense, better bullpen behind him (with Storen out) and a much weaker division which will yield some tasty matchups down the road.
Also, we just don't know what the Nats will do when Wang gets healthy and they still have John Lanna lurking. Meanwhile - Smyly looks to have very little competition for the 5th starters job with prized prospect Jacob Turner coming back from shoulder tendinitis this spring. There is no way the Tigers are going to rush Turner to the majors with the way Smyly's pitching right now and Adam Wilk flopped in his audition as a starter.
Smyly (and Jenmar gomez of Cle) were two early grabs in my CBS AL-only squad that have been fantastic.
So I really like both these arms. However, after watching him pitch recently against Tex and NY, I would side with Todd here and say go with Smyly. Better pure strikeout stuff, better offense, better bullpen behind him (with Storen out) and a much weaker division which will yield some tasty matchups down the road.
Also, we just don't know what the Nats will do when Wang gets healthy and they still have John Lanna lurking. Meanwhile - Smyly looks to have very little competition for the 5th starters job with prized prospect Jacob Turner coming back from shoulder tendinitis this spring. There is no way the Tigers are going to rush Turner to the majors with the way Smyly's pitching right now and Adam Wilk flopped in his audition as a starter.
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Captain Hook
Re: Detwiler/Smyly/Miley
I own all three in different leagues......still I think this is pretty unbiased
My rank for ROS would be
Detwiler
Smyly
Miley
Part of the reason for Detwiler being the most likely to have the most value is that he is playing on a (at least for now) winning team and won the job out of spring training (again as I thought his performance late last year would put him in the rotation. What we see now is a confident young pitcher with a good reportoire and solid mechanics. I don't see Wang or far less likely Lannan bumping him out of the rotation - Davey will still with guys who have got him this far and are still performing
Smyly is probably better long term (although there are some minor issues that need to be fixed) BUT while also on a winning team, as announced today while he stays in the Tigers rotation they will occassionally skip his turn when the schedule allows thus reducing the total innings pitched this year but still having him available all year - that is not exactly good fantasy news but I understand it (some) from the club's POV
Miley will have to have outpitched Corbin when Daniel Hudson returns (and even if that is the case the fact that he performed so well in long relief for the club might actually hurt him if the DBacks want to keep Corbin starting and starting for the big club.
My rank for ROS would be
Detwiler
Smyly
Miley
Part of the reason for Detwiler being the most likely to have the most value is that he is playing on a (at least for now) winning team and won the job out of spring training (again as I thought his performance late last year would put him in the rotation. What we see now is a confident young pitcher with a good reportoire and solid mechanics. I don't see Wang or far less likely Lannan bumping him out of the rotation - Davey will still with guys who have got him this far and are still performing
Smyly is probably better long term (although there are some minor issues that need to be fixed) BUT while also on a winning team, as announced today while he stays in the Tigers rotation they will occassionally skip his turn when the schedule allows thus reducing the total innings pitched this year but still having him available all year - that is not exactly good fantasy news but I understand it (some) from the club's POV
Miley will have to have outpitched Corbin when Daniel Hudson returns (and even if that is the case the fact that he performed so well in long relief for the club might actually hurt him if the DBacks want to keep Corbin starting and starting for the big club.