Some NFBC Drafting Thoughts for the Weekend
Posted: March 18th, 2009, 3:49 pm
I realize the satellite leagues are somewhat different but many of the same people draft both and I feel the overall trends will remain the same. Here are observations from my three satellite drafts. Do what you wish with them but don't say you were surprised if they happen.
1. Starting off with a strong suggestion, have and use the tiers approach. It is the only way to see where concentrations or gaps in position players really occur.
2. Have some means to identify players with above average skills at specific categories. I tracked HRs, SBs and AVG but you could do whatever you like. As the draft proceeds, it become critical to quickly see who is available with power, average or speed. You will see that average ends around Polanco and that major power end with Pena although there are several 28+ HR guys later in the draft. Just don't think you can make a power charge after about the 10th round.
3. Expect about 100 hitters and 50 pitchers to be gone when round 10 ends. It has been this way for five years.
4. Closers-in-waiting will go 2-3 rounds before you really think they should. Plus, enough at each table will be aware of the various injuries befalling closers to include some that may happen on Saturday morning. Check Rotoworld or Rotowire or your site of choice for last second injury updates.
5. people will reach two tiers for middle infielders rather than taking what is available around rounds 12-15. Whatever their reach level is, they will never get it back.
6. Mauer goes later than his dollar value suggests. The remaining 5-6 top catchers go about where their dollar value suggests. Then the next 5-8 go before their value. Don't ask me why but it seems to be the case. If you wait and wait, realize that only 31 catchers are likely to be drafted. Only the team with Wieters should even consider a backup. Once you get past the top 15-18 catchers, I would personally suggest to just wait until like round 28 but that is me.
7. Speed will go before it seems it should. this is especially true once you reach the single digit dollar players. Everyone reaches for speed. If you can get speed for value earlier in the draft, you have to at least give it a thought. However, power is likely more valuable in the long run than speed.
8. About half a dozen $10+ outfielders will be available when all the other remaining position players are under $8 and $4 in the most expensive MI remaining.
9. My personal take it that desirable corner infielders is the commodity that is gone first. Sure, some names are left but solid counting stats are no longer there from a position you really want to get that power.
10. Guzman and Polanco go later than dollar value suggests. Dunn and Chris Young [OF] go earlier.
11. Papelbon is going late 4th. However, one of Todd's five will likely be available at the end of the 6th. In my Tuesday night draft, I got Rivera at 6.11. I think he was the last remaining of the Papelbon tier.
12. If you do not have a helper/buddy with you, get one. So much happens you need a second set of eyes. Except for the cost and a few other things, I would love just attending one of these against a helper to a team or for the guy running one of the many drafts.
13. Finally, have fun and enjoy.
1. Starting off with a strong suggestion, have and use the tiers approach. It is the only way to see where concentrations or gaps in position players really occur.
2. Have some means to identify players with above average skills at specific categories. I tracked HRs, SBs and AVG but you could do whatever you like. As the draft proceeds, it become critical to quickly see who is available with power, average or speed. You will see that average ends around Polanco and that major power end with Pena although there are several 28+ HR guys later in the draft. Just don't think you can make a power charge after about the 10th round.
3. Expect about 100 hitters and 50 pitchers to be gone when round 10 ends. It has been this way for five years.
4. Closers-in-waiting will go 2-3 rounds before you really think they should. Plus, enough at each table will be aware of the various injuries befalling closers to include some that may happen on Saturday morning. Check Rotoworld or Rotowire or your site of choice for last second injury updates.
5. people will reach two tiers for middle infielders rather than taking what is available around rounds 12-15. Whatever their reach level is, they will never get it back.
6. Mauer goes later than his dollar value suggests. The remaining 5-6 top catchers go about where their dollar value suggests. Then the next 5-8 go before their value. Don't ask me why but it seems to be the case. If you wait and wait, realize that only 31 catchers are likely to be drafted. Only the team with Wieters should even consider a backup. Once you get past the top 15-18 catchers, I would personally suggest to just wait until like round 28 but that is me.
7. Speed will go before it seems it should. this is especially true once you reach the single digit dollar players. Everyone reaches for speed. If you can get speed for value earlier in the draft, you have to at least give it a thought. However, power is likely more valuable in the long run than speed.
8. About half a dozen $10+ outfielders will be available when all the other remaining position players are under $8 and $4 in the most expensive MI remaining.
9. My personal take it that desirable corner infielders is the commodity that is gone first. Sure, some names are left but solid counting stats are no longer there from a position you really want to get that power.
10. Guzman and Polanco go later than dollar value suggests. Dunn and Chris Young [OF] go earlier.
11. Papelbon is going late 4th. However, one of Todd's five will likely be available at the end of the 6th. In my Tuesday night draft, I got Rivera at 6.11. I think he was the last remaining of the Papelbon tier.
12. If you do not have a helper/buddy with you, get one. So much happens you need a second set of eyes. Except for the cost and a few other things, I would love just attending one of these against a helper to a team or for the guy running one of the many drafts.
13. Finally, have fun and enjoy.
