Thoughts on These Hurlers

[AllstonRockCity]

Just wondering what the community thinks about the following arms.

For context, this is an 11 team 5x5 ALonly with an 1100 IP minimum (which really devalues MRs and makes having 6 starters pretty much necessary). The IP min also drives up the prices on starters quite a bit.

Looking at the following guys as 5th/6th starter types:

Moscoso $3

Tyson Ross $7

Tommy Hunter $6

Aaron Crow $7

Thoughts??

[deansdaddy]

Hmmmm - I think of all the arms you list I like Crow's the best and I think he's the guy I would go with. Although he is no lock to earn a rotation spot, neither are the other guys you list here and at least Crow WILL have an integral role in the bullpen if in fact he doesn't start. He's my choice. Not a believer in either OAK guy in light of some of the other young arms they have brought in. Hunter as well just doesn't thrill me in the AL East - but he would be my second choice here I guess.

[Captain Hook]

Just wondering what the community thinks about the following arms.

For context, this is an 11 team 5x5 ALonly with an 1100 IP minimum (which really devalues MRs and makes having 6 starters pretty much necessary). The IP min also drives up the prices on starters quite a bit.

Looking at the following guys as 5th/6th starter types:

Moscoso $3

Tyson Ross $7

Tommy Hunter $6

Aaron Crow $7

Thoughts??

Here are my thoughts (and I have seen these guys pitch quite a bit)
Moscoso will be well worth the $3 and a starting spot IF he is in the rotation in March (but I would NOT have him active if you have the choice for the two game series in Japan)

Ross - pass, still working his way back from injuries

Hunter - no hope for good numbers if he is pitching for Baltimore

Crow - is being given the opportunity to win a spot in the Royals rotation (he was a starter at Missouri and in his first year in pro ball and has the pitches for it)......he will be well worth the $7 IF he is starting for KC

[Todd Zola]

I'd ask what Lulu thinks about them

[AllstonRockCity]

I'd ask what Lulu thinks about them

He's locked in on our studs right now. I know from experience that it's better to wait and have him come to you rather than vice versa. Plus, he's just going to try to get 1 of our no-brainers thrown in and we don't want to go that route.

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I find it interesting that neither one of you (Ryan and Perry) think Moscoso is a lock for the rotation. The way I looked at it, with Cahill and Gonzalez gone and Anderson not available til after the break (and that doesn't look very likely), it seemed that McCarthy and Moscoso were the only sure-bets they had for their rotation. I also kinda felt the same way about Ross. I'd be very curious as to who you both think the starting 5 in OAK would be if that rotation didn't include either of them (Ross and Moscoso).

Crow is #2 on this list for us. And I agree that if he's not starting, he's setting up, then closing if/when they move Soria or he goes down (last year has me very skiddish)

thanks, and lets keep it going

I considered Hunter last on this list. Very interesting that Ryan has him 2nd, but I guess that's more of an indictment of the OAK guys and praise for Tommy???

[Todd Zola]

I'd ask what Lulu thinks about them

He's locked in on our studs right now. I know from experience that it's better to wait and have him come to you rather than vice versa. Plus, he's just going to try to get 1 of our no-brainers thrown in and we don't want to go that route.

I have finally caught on -- got the typical "X for Y"? e-mail and i replied, is this the part that when I say yes, the offer is actually X for Y+Z?

[Captain Hook]

I find it interesting that neither one of you (Ryan and Perry) think Moscoso is a lock for the rotation. The way I looked at it, with Cahill and Gonzalez gone and Anderson not available til after the break (and that doesn't look very likely), it seemed that McCarthy and Moscoso were the only sure-bets they had for their rotation. I also kinda felt the same way about Ross. I'd be very curious as to who you both think the starting 5 in OAK would be if that rotation didn't include either of them (Ross and Moscoso).

My comments about Moscoso being in the rotation had more to do with all the players movement going on in Oakland.....certainly based on his performance last year Guilleromo should be starting for the AAAthletics.

Assuming there were no more changes to Oakland's rosters (and I will bet against that) I think there rotation would be
Brandon McCarthy
Dallas Braden (did you forget about him?)
Jarrod Parker (I think this is a LOCK)
Guillermo Moscoso
Josh Outman or Tommy Milone


We will see about Tyson Ross in spring training - IF completely healthy he certainly could be in line for one of the spots

[AllstonRockCity]

I did forget about Braden ( I knew I was forgetting someone, but if I knew who it was I wouldn't be forgetting them now, would I? ) Is he going to be ready, he had major surgery, no?

I hear you loud and clear that what their 40/25 man rosters are now and what they will be 4/1/12 are 2 very different animals.

Jarrod Parker, eh?? hmm. need to do some more research.

Thanks

And Todd,

He would never do anything like that, you must have him confused with someone else.

[Todd Zola]

Early reports are Braden should be ready for the spring, but shoulder boo-boos are often worse than elbow ow-wies.

The other guy I sort of like is Brad Peacock.

I agree Parker is furthest along, but it may come down to rock/paper/scissors between Milone and Peacock.

[deansdaddy]

O's just signed lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who likely has a better shot at the rotation than Hunter. Hunter maybe you consider if he lands somewhere else - but now I'd drop him off the list.

[deansdaddy]

Just asking here - can you bid on free-agents? If so keep tabs on Kuroda and Oswalt who could both land on AL rosters in the coming days.

[Todd Zola]

Just asking here - can you bid on free-agents? If so keep tabs on Kuroda and Oswalt who could both land on AL rosters in the coming days.

On April 7, we, I mean he can

[aburt19]

I have some concerns with Crow. In August he had an ERA of over 8 and in September he had an ERA over 5. His walk rate
went up in those months, although his strikeout rate was good. I watched him pitch in several of those games and he was
struggling.

I'm not saying he's not worth $7, just that I think there is risk there.

[Captain Hook]

I have some concerns with Crow. In August he had an ERA of over 8 and in September he had an ERA over 5. His walk rate
went up in those months, although his strikeout rate was good. I watched him pitch in several of those games and he was
struggling.

I'm not saying he's not worth $7, just that I think there is risk there.

Crow is only worth the $7 IF he is in the KC starting rotation in April

(and btw the six August innings and five September innings you are referencing, likely when he was on fumes, followed an excellent year of work in the bullpen)

[aburt19]

I have some concerns with Crow. In August he had an ERA of over 8 and in September he had an ERA over 5. His walk rate
went up in those months, although his strikeout rate was good. I watched him pitch in several of those games and he was
struggling.

I'm not saying he's not worth $7, just that I think there is risk there.

Crow is only worth the $7 IF he is in the KC starting rotation in April

(and btw the six August innings and five September innings you are referencing, likely when he was on fumes, followed an excellent year of work in the bullpen)

I am curious about the "when he was on fumes" part of it. I know the relieving is different than starting. But I would think
that a pitcher who was a starter wouldn't have a problem with fatigue if he is pitching out of the bullpen. Is that an
erroneous way of thinking?

[Captain Hook]

Just saying that pitchers - especially younger ones - can get gassed at some point late in the season - and there may well have been an injury that we don't know about. I was just saying you were pointing to Aug & Sept ERA when he pitched less innings combined than in any of the previous four months so I would rather make my judgment on his great numbers earlier in the year.

[AllstonRockCity]

Wow, a lots happened since nap-time. Where to begin? Let's see...

Ryan - as Todd said, this is all in prep for an AL auction on 4/7 with freeze lists due about a week before that. Just trying to get a consensus opinion on these guys and see if there's anything I was overlooking.

Things I might be overlooking, like:

- Moscoso isn't necessarily in the rotation yet, I'd taken that as a given. Though Perry couldn't make a starting 5 that didn't include him given the makeup of their roster at the present time.

- Hunter probably isn't in the rotation (though they did trade for him, they obviously see something there). Right now it looks like the only givens in the BAL rotation are; Guthrie, Britton and Arrieta. Seems like there's 4 or 5 guys fighting for those last 2 spots; Hunter, Wada, Chen, Bergesen, Simon

I am curious about the "when he was on fumes" part of it. I know the relieving is different than starting. But I would think
that a pitcher who was a starter wouldn't have a problem with fatigue if he is pitching out of the bullpen. Is that an
erroneous way of thinking?

I actually think the opposite might be true. Crow was always a starter, then he makes the team as a reliever in what turns out to be a great rookie campaign.

Starters throw with purpose on the day that they pitch, then rest a day or 2, then throw on the side (80-90% of max effort??), then another day or 2 of rest, then repeat. So they are really only giving it their all once every 5 days and only throwing twice every 5 (sometimes 6) days. Relievers throw at 100% sometimes, 2 or 3 days in a row. Not to mention all the times they are told to warm up, get ready to come in, then are never actually brought in. This is a lot more throwing in the course of 5-6 days than a starter. I'm pretty sure this is how Smoltz felt about the challenges of the 2 different lives of pitchers.

So, I am not really concerned with his stamina as a starter this year. Nor am I really concerned with his ability to get major leaguers out. The concern(s) are that:
-he's stretched out in ST, then put back in the pen when camp breaks (not worth $7, as Perry said)
-he's basically a rookie all over again if he is a starter as he now has to learn the routine of being a starter for 6 months. most guy's stats regress when the move from the pen to the rotation. these 2 facts combined make me a bit leery about just how steep the drop in peripherals will be

[Captain Hook]

- Moscoso isn't necessarily in the rotation yet, I'd taken that as a given. Though Perry couldn't make a starting 5 that didn't include him given the makeup of their roster at the present time.

I could have - McCarthy, Braden, Parker, Outman, Peacock, or Milone
but I didn't because while I don't think he is guaranteed a spot he will be in the rotation in March.......but of course at this rate they might trade him before then...

Bottom line - I would certainly freeze him today for $3 in an AL only league

[Captain Hook]

well scratch Moscoso off your keeper list - I can't see Coors being friendly for him AND he would have to make the rotation......

[AllstonRockCity]

and its AL only to boot, so an extra kick in the pants on that one.

Man, you are good. I figured Moscoso was exactly the kind of cheap talent you'd want to keep when you're rebuilding, but you called it. when they blow it up in OAK, they blow it up.

[CubFan]

Just saying that pitchers - especially younger ones - can get gassed at some point late in the season - and there may well have been an injury that we don't know about. I was just saying you were pointing to Aug & Sept ERA when he pitched less innings combined than in any of the previous four months so I would rather make my judgment on his great numbers earlier in the year.

Captain.....Can one ignore the very poor performance he had in the minors when he was a starter? I agree his body of work for the first half last week was excellent but as they say it was a small sample size. And the word is he only has two plus (MLB worthy) pitches; fastball and slider. While I'm not a scout from what little I know that seems more of a skill set for a reliever and possibly that is why he had so much trouble as a starter in his first year of professional ball. Maybe he's developed a good third complimentary pitch.

Actually, I'd rather see Soria start as he is supposed to have 4 quality pitches. Problem is he's been a relief pitcher for too many years that he may have trouble stretching out.....and he's had some arm problems the last 2 years.

[Captain Hook]

Just saying that pitchers - especially younger ones - can get gassed at some point late in the season - and there may well have been an injury that we don't know about. I was just saying you were pointing to Aug & Sept ERA when he pitched less innings combined than in any of the previous four months so I would rather make my judgment on his great numbers earlier in the year.

Captain.....Can one ignore the very poor performance he had in the minors when he was a starter? I agree his body of work for the first half last week was excellent but as they say it was a small sample size. And the word is he only has two plus (MLB worthy) pitches; fastball and slider. While I'm not a scout from what little I know that seems more of a skill set for a reliever and possibly that is why he had so much trouble as a starter in his first year of professional ball. Maybe he's developed a good third complimentary pitch.

Actually, I'd rather see Soria start as he is supposed to have 4 quality pitches. Problem is he's been a relief pitcher for too many years that he may have trouble stretching out.....and he's had some arm problems the last 2 years.

1) Don't worry about the very small sample size of Crow as a SP with the Royals
2) THAT word would be wrong - he has three plus pitches - four seam and two seam fastball and slider - yes he needs to work on an offspeed pitch -actually I tinnk he has them but didn't throw them much as a reliever so we don't know how good they are now - but he is already working on them this year
3) Soria is the closer ....period

Crow will have to win his spot in th rotation in spring training with the Royals but many in the KC organization share my belief that he has a good chance to do do - and be successful