Tiers and Draft Position

[viper]

Currently the Premium section is voting on KDS for a 12-team NFBC Draft & Hold League. To date with very few voting, I am the only one opting for a near middle draft slot. Todd, or someone, tell me where the following thought process fails.

I am a believer in tier drafting. I also believe that when you draft on the end, you must think of draft picks in pairs. Too many players will be taken after your second of the paired picks so you need to anticipate how the draft will go. Drafting on the ends could mean an entire tier for a position is gone before your next pick. In the 15-team NFBC Main and satellite Event, you could have up to 28 players go between selections. If you draft in the middle, that number is greatly reduced. A good example can be found in pitching. Assume there are 10 top tier pitchers and you want one of them to anchor your staff. Your desire is to get one of the last 3-4 on the tier. If you have the 14 pick in the Main event, you could easily have only one take before your second pick but have them all gone before your third round selection.

If you draft on the ends, you need to have a plan and you must stick to it. Many drafters do not have this discipline and they get caught up in the moment when a run on a position/tier unfolds. Drafting in the middle allows you to have a plan but you can make minor adjustments easier - I still won't become a lemming during a run but other minor adjustments are easier. The biggest plus to drafting first is that there are typically a few players that stand out well above the rest.

My question is does drafting on the ends go well with strict tier drafting?

[Todd Zola]

I have found the tiered approach to be just as useful at the end than in the middle. As an aside, the draft we will be doing on Platinum is a 15 team league and it is not technically draft and hold, as weekly moves will be allowed. Draft and hold is you play the guys you draft and cannot make any moves.

Back to the question...

My experience has been that if you are concerned a tier will be gone by the next pick, then you take the top player in that tier. If you are right, you get the top player and everyone else is taking players in the tier, which makes your next pick a relatively better player as they are all taking from a different position that you want next time.

I guess I see the ends, in terms of tier drafting, as a higher risk, higher reward type of deal. it works, and it can be very advantageous, but there are also risks so I understand the comfort of a middle pick.

One reason I actually like the ends is a couple of times during the draft, I get to take one guy based on need and the other based on value (meaning he dropped further than he should). Sometimes in the middle, there is a player that has dropped and I WANT him, but it is also time to take a guy from a tier. Decision time -- ignore the tier and hope to get a player at that position and take the value or stay with the plan, take the tier and hope to get value later?