Too early to speculate on 1st rounders next year?

[southpaw]

It may be so how about speculating on just one - Jose Bautista.
Is he a lock first rounder next year barring any unforeseen injury or incident with the law?

Where do you think Kershaw lands in a 12 team league? Still around that 3rd/4th round vicinity?

[Todd Zola]

Especially since he retains 3B eligibility, I think Bautista will indeed be a first rounder.

I think in some leagues, Kershaw will be a late second. His ADP will likely be early to mid 3rd.

I think Halladay retains his distinction as the first pitcher taken and is fundamentally his own tier, but after that, there will be a plethora of #2s

Felix and Lincecum have dropped into a tier with Weaver, Verlander, Kershaw and Lee. I can see every one being the second pitcher taken.

Next will be Lester and Hanson who will fall from this season, plus Hamels, Sabathia, Haren, (who should be between these two tiers but still gets no respect).

Beckett, Shields and Greinke likely sneak into the above tier, but for the sake of doing this in mid-August, we'll make them the next tier with Cain, Price, DHudson, Marcum and Ogando.

I may be missing someone, but I see this as a starting point anyway.

[viper]

I find it interesting to see Ogando mentioned given his lack of a track record. I'm not saying I disagree because, not having him this year, I admit I haven't followed his progress aside from the fact the Rangers considered capping his innings and now, in the hunt, they seem to be revising their decision.

As a total ne issue, Nolan Ryan's pitching theory seems to be to not pamper his pitchers. To date, they have done well with this concept. However, time will tell if this is indeed they way to go. What are the MB thoughts on pushing innings pitched and pitches thrown the way it appears Nolan Ryan advocates. Or am I wrong in my perception this is the way he operates?

[Todd Zola]

First off, I think too much is being made of the "Nolan Ryan effect" in Texas. Ogando has been given an extra day on a number of occasions, which has been worked around a paternity leave that they obviously knew was coming. That said, the Rangers do not have the luxury of shutting him down like the Nats do with Zimmermann or the Mariners with Pineda. They are in a position like the Padres were last season with Latos -- in contention. But, like I said, they are giving him the extra day on occasion and reworked the rotation coming out of the ASB to give him extra rest.

With respect to Ogando, he is the perfect dichotomy of subjective versus objective analysis.

Objectively, what we have is two seasons of data - 2010 where he started in the Minors and came up to the Rangers as a reliever throwing about 72 innings all totaled and this season, 134 as a starter and counting. His peripheral skills (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) are excellent. He has carried a "lucky" BABIP, but even if we regress that, his skills are strong and OBJECTIVELY, he projects strongly.

Subjectively, we only have two seasons of data, one of which was spent as a reliever. Ogando was converted to pitching from outfield in 2007, but was unable to obtain a work visa until 2010. Who knows how much throwing he did in '07/'08/'09? He will be 28 in early October, no longer a spring chicken. Most Verducci effect studies focus on younger pitchers, not 28 year old converted outfielders that have spent three years mysteriously.

As suggested, the projection engine, even after regressing his BABIP and HR/9 will spew out a favorable projection. The accompanying profile however, will be replete with all sorts of red flag warnings, with a note that unless the discount is extreme, Ogando is going to thrive/fail on someone else's roster, not mine. There are far more "reliable" pitchers available when he is likely to be drafted, with the obvious - as reliable as pitching can inherently be addendum.