Trading Verlander

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RandyKutcherHair · #1 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 1st, 2011, 9:27 am

This is an 8 team AL ONLY keeper roto league. At this point in the season it doesn't look like I will be able to get in contention for the money this year. I own Verlander; but can not keep him next year. I've gotten a few trade offers ( a mix of mlb players and prospects) and not sure which direct is best to go. What do you guys think of the following offers?

1) Markakis
2) Martin Perez (Rangers) & Michael Taylor (A's)
3) Anthony Ranaundo (Red Sox) & a mid rd draft pick
4) Ben Revere

All thoughts and suggestions are appreciated.

#2 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 1st, 2011, 10:03 am

honestly? For verlander, none of those move the needle, not even a little.

Trav The Ump · #3 Post by **Trav The Ump** » July 1st, 2011, 10:04 am

If your trade deadline is the same as MLB and the end of the month here just wait. The offers will come up as those playing for jelly beans will get more desperate. No need to move him yet, just keep dangling him out there and reminding trading partners they are wasting K's and W's by not giving you a substantial offer now.

RandyKutcherHair · #4 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 1st, 2011, 10:10 am

Unfortunately I agree. I thought I would be in contention this year; but it just hasn't come together so I need to get what I can for him. I can't keep him and I'm sure it will be very difficult for other teams in this league to keep him as well due to a very high salary going forward so he may only be a couple of month rental for a contender. This league uses real mlb salaries with a cap. Players such as Arod and Sabathia aren't owned in this due to salary constraints.

RandyKutcherHair · #5 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 1st, 2011, 10:16 am

Trav The Ump wrote:If your trade deadline is the same as MLB and the end of the month here just wait. The offers will come up as those playing for jelly beans will get more desperate. No need to move him yet, just keep dangling him out there and reminding trading partners they are wasting K's and W's by not giving you a substantial offer now.

Yes, same day as MLB. You don't think he would lose value in a trade as the numbers of games he can contribute dwindle down?

#6 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 1st, 2011, 10:18 am

That changes things a little but not enough to make me jump yet. I agree something is better than nothing but in this instance I think it is worth the risk of getting nothing while holding out for more.

#7 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 1st, 2011, 10:23 am

RandyKutcherHair wrote:
Trav The Ump wrote:If your trade deadline is the same as MLB and the end of the month here just wait. The offers will come up as those playing for jelly beans will get more desperate. No need to move him yet, just keep dangling him out there and reminding trading partners they are wasting K's and W's by not giving you a substantial offer now.
Yes, same day as MLB. You don't think he would lose value in a trade as the numbers of games he can contribute dwindle down?

In this case no because verlander is a big difference maker. That said, you can force the other owner's hands by saying they get him the extra starts.

Have you been proactive about asking for a certain player yourself or have you just solicited offers?

RandyKutcherHair · #8 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 1st, 2011, 10:39 am

Todd Zola wrote:In this case no because verlander is a big difference maker. That said, you can force the other owner's hands by saying they get him the extra starts.

Have you been proactive about asking for a certain player yourself or have you just solicited offers?

A little of both. I'd say 4/5 teams have some sort of interest. Other players discussed were Youks, Morneau (when he was healthy), Pedroia, Brett Anderson, Billy Butler, & Brett Lawrie.

If i can't do better, how do the options rank in the original post in this topic?

Captain Hook · #9 Post by **Captain Hook** » July 1st, 2011, 3:00 pm

I might trade him for all of the above but as Todd said none of those trades are worthwhile for you.

I am going to post a counter thought to "well I should trade him to get something"....... WHY??
You are skewing the results of your league to make a bad trade - personally I would rather stay principled and go hungry. BUT what you should do (if you haven't already) is EMAIL everyone in the league that Verlander is on the block for best combination of GOOD cheap players, prospects, and/or draft picks. Once you have the best of the nibbles I would call the guys in the hunt who have not offered more and get them into the bidding.......but I still wouldn't give him away for nothing

CubFan · #10 Post by **CubFan** » July 3rd, 2011, 2:31 pm

If you haven't done so and there are some players you are interested in then contact that owner. You may have to do a package deal but explore it. If your league is like ours you'll have some owners who are not proactive. So take the bull by the horns and work the e-mail/phones. You won't know unless you beat the bushes.

RandyKutcherHair · #11 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 5th, 2011, 4:21 pm

I get what you are saying; but I will probably be a little selfish here and deal away Verlander. Working the phones and emails hasn't generated much more value. The most unfortunate thing about this league is that it is very hard to keep top guys with real life $20million salaries due to the salary cap and Verlander is set to start making $20million next year. I also own Adrian Gonzalez and he will be over $20million next year so I wouldn't be able to keep both. No matter how long I try I won't ever be able to get 'equal' value for Verlander.

da_big_kid_94 · #12 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » July 6th, 2011, 5:46 am

RandyKutcherHair wrote:I get what you are saying; but I will probably be a little selfish here and deal away Verlander. Working the phones and emails hasn't generated much more value. The most unfortunate thing about this league is that it is very hard to keep top guys with real life $20million salaries due to the salary cap and Verlander is set to start making $20million next year. I also own Adrian Gonzalez and he will be over $20million next year so I wouldn't be able to keep both. No matter how long I try I won't ever be able to get 'equal' value for Verlander.

Which is what many of your league mates may be counting on. So my advice to you is stop. You say your trade deadline is July 31st? Then don't even make a phone call or an e-mail until July 29th. You may be coming off as desperate to your league mates and they may be low balling you seeing that you are offering him up everywhere with almost a month left before the deadline.

And one other thing - I agree with Perry - you don't have to get ANYTHING for him - you can just keep him. People have to believe you will take the loss and let him go at the end of the year - otherwise, they'll wait you out knowing you'll take a lowball offer just to get something for him. If you get a lowball offer, you respond by saying this is a top level pitcher and I will get something substantive for him or he'll stay put. I will not give him away for the sake of getting something. I would also change the pitch a little - I'd forget 2012 completely. I would just pitch him to teams that he becomes a pennant winner for this year - next year is the other guy's problem. Salary doesn't mean anything until next year unless you have a cap that wasn't alluded to.

RandyKutcherHair · #13 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 6th, 2011, 7:15 am

I agree with most everything said there kid. This keeper league does use a salary cap. We take the average of all AL teams each year, using the real salaries on Cot's and the release by the AP each year, the cap is $93million and change. We also have a deep minor league farm system and those players do not count against the cap until they hit the mlb level. These types of deals are very tough in this league because of the salaries. For example, I would never be able to trade Verlander for a young guy like Moustakas in this league, even if it would help the guy getting Verlander to finish in the money. Such a high value is placed on young cheap players.

da_big_kid_94 · #14 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » July 6th, 2011, 7:23 am

RandyKutcherHair wrote:I agree with most everything said there kid. This keeper league does use a salary cap. We take the average of all AL teams each year, using the real salaries on Cot's and the release by the AP each year, the cap is $93million and change. We also have a deep minor league farm system and those players do not count against the cap until they hit the mlb level. These types of deals are very tough in this league because of the salaries. For example, I would never be able to trade Verlander for a young guy like Moustakas in this league, even if it would help the guy getting Verlander to finish in the money. Such a high value is placed on young cheap players.

So ...if I read this right - the majority of players in your league would rather build a cheap year in, year out "dynasty" with no regard to final standings then try to win now or finish in the money? That there are no real "pennant drive" trades and that virtually every deal has keeper status impact involved regardless of how it may help a given team in the current season?

On the other hand, as the Forum Funklord has wisely stated; "Know Thy League" - which you obviously do. You cited the Moose and inferred others like him in your example - may I ask why? And as an adjunct - perfect world - what would you want (within the context of your league) for Verlander?

RandyKutcherHair · #15 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 6th, 2011, 7:33 am

da_big_kid_94 wrote:So ...if I read this right - the majority of players in your league would rather build a cheap year in, year out "dynasty" with no regard to final standings then try to win now or finish in the money? That there are no real "pennant drive" trades and that virtually every deal has keeper status impact involved regardless of how it may help a given team in the current season?

Unfortunately for me, yes. Everyone over values their own minor league guys and think they have the second coming. It's the nature of the beast. There are pennant drive trades; but it is difficult to have a team deal away a top young player (Hosmer, Moustakas, etc.) at league minimum for a top veteran that will cost more then $20million. I keep pushing the 'win now mentality' and 'flags fly forever'; but it hasn't been working.

da_big_kid_94 · #16 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » July 6th, 2011, 7:42 am

RandyKutcherHair wrote:
da_big_kid_94 wrote:So ...if I read this right - the majority of players in your league would rather build a cheap year in, year out "dynasty" with no regard to final standings then try to win now or finish in the money? That there are no real "pennant drive" trades and that virtually every deal has keeper status impact involved regardless of how it may help a given team in the current season?
Unfortunately for me, yes. Everyone over values their own minor league guys and think they have the second coming. It's the nature of the beast. There are pennant drive trades; but it is difficult to have a team deal away a top young player (Hosmer, Moustakas, etc.) at league minimum for a top veteran that will cost more then $20million. I keep pushing the 'win now mentality' and 'flags fly forever'; but it hasn't been working.

Understood ...that's part 1 ....you may not have caught my addition to my last post

On the other hand, as the Forum Funklord has wisely stated; "Know Thy League" - which you obviously do. You cited the Moose and inferred others like him in your example - may I ask why? And as an adjunct - perfect world - what would you want (within the context of your league) for Verlander?

I don't want to say anything until I see your next response - I have a few notions but want to wait on them.

RandyKutcherHair · #17 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 6th, 2011, 7:53 am

da_big_kid_94 wrote:I don't want to say anything until I see your next response - I have a few notions but want to wait on them.

Sorry, I did miss that part. I mentioned Moose because that is the type of return I set out to obtain. I targeted young up and coming bats and was rejected on all. Players such as Moose, Hosmer, Kipinis, Chisenhall, Trout, & Viciedo. Then I started to focus on veterans such as Granderson, Butler, & Youks; but was rejected there as well. Any and all notions are appreciated.

I also did begin with the approach that I was going to keep him next year; but it was obvious that I wouldn't be able to at the increased salary. I changed tact and am now telling potential trade partners that I will deal him somewhere, don't miss out on your opportunity to finish in the money.

da_big_kid_94 · #18 Post by **da_big_kid_94** » July 6th, 2011, 8:13 am

Ok ....that's what I thought ....you mentioned a whole slew of nice young names that have at least three things in common;

They are dirt cheap minor league or first year players.
They are pretty much all BBA darlings and you have pride of "discovery/ownership" issues with many of your fellow owners.
None have them have done a damn thing that would indicate they would be worthy of a Verlander in a deal.

You don't want these guys for Verlander - don't make the deal a salary dump - make it on talent. You can not expect anyone to give up cheap players if they need them to offset the cost of a $20 mil Verlander if everyone is so attuned to 2012 salary requirements. You mentioned who you targeted at the major league level - but you didn't say if

They need a pitcher like Verlander this year
And, much as I hate to say it, how much cap room they may have for 2012 if that is an equally mitigating factor as is winning the league

There is something to be said for grabbing cheap salaried players - but cheap proven salaried players beat cheap unproven salaried players every time. I think you can deal Verlander - but I think you have to revamp your expectations within the context of the league. Again, I'd say nothing for at least three weeks - but take a good hard look at what your expectations are - they may need some modifications in consort with the needs of your potential trade partners for a Verlander. A Mitch Moreland and a Jason Kubel/Josh Willingham type and a Josh Reddick/Jemile Weeks (Drew's making retirement noises). Look at who currently owns Lester and wait for the MRI today. This may be a time where the sum of the deal can be greater than it's parts.

Good luck and good hunting.

#19 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 6th, 2011, 8:20 am

I can see how the contracts really impact the keeper value, even more so than is a more standard league. In a more standard league, a prospect may cost 5 units, when takes as a percentage of the overall budget, that is 5/260 = 1.9%. Doing the same thing for a rookie or second year contract at 500K, it is .5%, on a relative basis, freeing up more money.

Then figure, each roto-valuation is a 2-step process. first their raw value, then per contact unit, these rookies are indeed GOLD.

But with that said, if I was in this league, I would still need to determine the chance that someone of this ilk paid off.

How close to the 93MIL do teams come at the draft? That is, how much salary can be realistically added in season?

RandyKutcherHair · July 6th, 2011, 11:39 am

Most teams end the draft pretty close to the cap ceiling. There is weekly movement in this league. There are a lot of transaction rules; but basically you can drop one player a week. For example, if you drafted Tori Hunter and his $18million contract you can drop him and now have at least $18million in cap space to play with.

The Markakis trade partner is officially out as they just dealt Markakis for Scherzer. I thought that was my best bet as he is in the top three right now and needed pitching help.

Captain Hook · #21 Post by **Captain Hook** » July 6th, 2011, 11:49 am

RandyKutcherHair wrote:Most teams end the draft pretty close to the cap ceiling. There is weekly movement in this league. There are a lot of transaction rules; but basically you can drop one player a week. For example, if you drafted Tori Hunter and his $18million contract you can drop him and now have at least $18million in cap space to play with.

The Markakis trade partner is officially out as they just dealt Markakis for Scherzer. I thought that was my best bet as he is in the top three right now and needed pitching help.

another couple of Scherzer implosions and it may be time to ring him up again

#22 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 6th, 2011, 11:52 am

I agree with Kid in that looking for somewhat established talent is the way to go.

The other direction could be injured players -- maybe Brett Anderson's owner wants to make a run. Perhaps if Lester is out, his owner may want some reinforcement.

I can see where it may be hard to deal pitching for hitting, but maybe Choo's owner would be willing. Or Jed Lowrie.

RandyKutcherHair · #23 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 6th, 2011, 5:16 pm

I thought I did mention Brett Anderson before; but maybe not. I have talked to that owner and that could be a possibility. Same owner just happens to be the guy who traded for Markakis. Not sure if the salaries work, he picked up a cheap Hochevar to fill in his staff. I backed off Brett Anderson because of the uncertainty surrounding his elbow injury. Would that be a better target one for one?

Scherzer has hit the skids a bit of late so maybe you are right there. Lester's owner is interested; but not for Lester and I already got shot down with Choo.

Captain Hook · #24 Post by **Captain Hook** » July 7th, 2011, 11:21 am

Just keep trying - you will find a deal

RandyKutcherHair · #25 Post by **RandyKutcherHair** » July 7th, 2011, 8:51 pm

As it stands now I believe my options are a deal for Brett Anderson, Ben Revere, or prospects to be determined. Still working the lines; but thats how it looks now. Should I act on one of those?

#26 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 7th, 2011, 10:23 pm

The problem with Anderson long term is smoke=fire and he has "escaped" TJS for 2 straight seasons. If healthy, he is a good pickup in this format. If hurt, well....

RandyKutcherHair · July 14th, 2011, 10:58 am

Anderson not able to escape TJS; going under the knife.

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