Rios and "riding the storm out"
-
viper
- Hall of Famer
- Posts: 1476
- Joined: December 31st, 2008, 11:32 pm
- Preferred Style: Currently in an AL-only league with the Bill James Technical RCA as the single hitting category and ERA as the single pitching category.
- Contact:
Rios and "riding the storm out"
I have Rios in both my AL-only leagues. I drafted him in one league and traded Brett Anderson for him in another. [The trade was one or two starts before Anderson was disabled] Neither league has benches so my decision is to play him or permanently replace him. Long ago I decided that no replacement player would equal his stats so I am "riding out the storm". But I closely read every article where he is mentioned. Keep those articles coming but realize it is sort of like twisting a knife in my back.
The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
Mike Ladd
Buffy, the Umpire Slayer
Mike Ladd
Buffy, the Umpire Slayer
Re: Rios and "riding the storm out"
Viper, I called Rios inconsistent on May 22, and Todd responded with the below. I remained not completely sold on Rios, but the central point remains good and I considered trying to trade for him, but no match. My guess is he'll return to career norms at some point, unless there is a hidden injury. Sitting tight is probably remains the right way to go - good luck.
"Actually, he is quite consistent and is still "paying for" the one unlucky year he had in terms of BA.
HR last 5 seasons
17 24 15 17 21
SB
15 17 22 24 34
BA
.302 .297 .291 .247 .284
Sorry, but there is nothing inconsistent about those trends, he is actually quite consistent.
if you further look at his walk and contact rates over the last 5 seasons, you will again see a similar pattern. The year Rios hit only .247, he had a low BABIP.
The real question is whether Rios will bounce back to the established level of .285-.295, 19-21, 25-28
His walk rate is fine, his contact rate is actually IMPROVED over his norm. Usually this is good unless it is due to a change in approach. His BABIP is .211 which is insanely low, especially since his LD% is quite high. "By the book", this SCREAMS regression and a climbing batting average. What I do not have is a breakdown of how hard he is hitting the ball, which is now tracked but not freely available. Still, a rebound in average is impending.
His HR and SB are pacing a little low. Give him one more HR and he is back on track, so I am not worried there. His SB opportunities are down due to a low BA so I am not concerned there.
At least by the numbers, Rios is the stereotypical BUY LOW candidate as his woes appear to be more from misfortune than declining skills."
"Actually, he is quite consistent and is still "paying for" the one unlucky year he had in terms of BA.
HR last 5 seasons
17 24 15 17 21
SB
15 17 22 24 34
BA
.302 .297 .291 .247 .284
Sorry, but there is nothing inconsistent about those trends, he is actually quite consistent.
if you further look at his walk and contact rates over the last 5 seasons, you will again see a similar pattern. The year Rios hit only .247, he had a low BABIP.
The real question is whether Rios will bounce back to the established level of .285-.295, 19-21, 25-28
His walk rate is fine, his contact rate is actually IMPROVED over his norm. Usually this is good unless it is due to a change in approach. His BABIP is .211 which is insanely low, especially since his LD% is quite high. "By the book", this SCREAMS regression and a climbing batting average. What I do not have is a breakdown of how hard he is hitting the ball, which is now tracked but not freely available. Still, a rebound in average is impending.
His HR and SB are pacing a little low. Give him one more HR and he is back on track, so I am not worried there. His SB opportunities are down due to a low BA so I am not concerned there.
At least by the numbers, Rios is the stereotypical BUY LOW candidate as his woes appear to be more from misfortune than declining skills."