Todd,
What do you project for Ichiro Suzuki for the rest of '11?
It can't be .250, can it?
Under the Microscope..Ichiro
Re: Under the Microscope..Ichiro
I know this is picking semantic nits, but when I do these, I am not projecting anything, I am trying to discern the most probable outcome. I know this example is not perfect, but the most probable outcome for a roll of a pair of dice is seven, yet it only occurs 16.67% of the time.
That said..
I will address Ichiro in more detail in the mailbag for KFFL on Monday, but there is some serious incongruity in his numbers. Or perhaps, what is happening is not being captured in the conventional numbers we look at. Batted ball data is tracked as hard hit and soft hit, but I do not have access to that and it is not available for free like on FanGraphs. I'd be willing to bet that Ichiro's percentage of soft hit grounders and line drives is much higher than previous seasons, so what is happening is not solely some bad luck on balls in play.
Will his average climb? Yeah, probably. But my expectations are very tempered. Not only has he not hit a single homer, but his doubles are way down and his infield pop ups way up.
I see an off-season analysis like we saw for Jeter this past off-season where many cite Ichiro's age and this as the beginning of the decline.
That said..
I will address Ichiro in more detail in the mailbag for KFFL on Monday, but there is some serious incongruity in his numbers. Or perhaps, what is happening is not being captured in the conventional numbers we look at. Batted ball data is tracked as hard hit and soft hit, but I do not have access to that and it is not available for free like on FanGraphs. I'd be willing to bet that Ichiro's percentage of soft hit grounders and line drives is much higher than previous seasons, so what is happening is not solely some bad luck on balls in play.
Will his average climb? Yeah, probably. But my expectations are very tempered. Not only has he not hit a single homer, but his doubles are way down and his infield pop ups way up.
I see an off-season analysis like we saw for Jeter this past off-season where many cite Ichiro's age and this as the beginning of the decline.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
Re: Under the Microscope..Ichiro
You are correct, sir. He's not hitting balls nearly as hard as in the past, so even though his contact rates are similar, the actual fine detail would show that Ichiro just isn't making hard contact like he has in the past.Todd Zola wrote:I'd be willing to bet that Ichiro's percentage of soft hit grounders and line drives is much higher than previous seasons, so what is happening is not solely some bad luck on balls in play.
I think he's capable of .280-.300, but I also am tempering my expectations for a return to Ichiro of old.
I tried to think of the most harmless thing. Something I loved from my childhood. Something that could never ever possibly destroy us. Mr. Stay Puft! We used to roast Stay-Puft marshmallows, by the fire, at Camp Waconda.