Breaking News: Hosmer promoted by the Royals!

[deansdaddy]

From Rotoworld: Hosmer is expected to arrive in Kansas City in time for Friday's game and should get his first career major league start. The promising first base prospect has been on an absolute tear at the Triple-A level, sporting a .439/.525/.582 batting line and three home runs through 118 plate appearances. He is worth grabbing in deep mixed leagues.

Kila Ka'aihue was demoted to make room. Love to see the Royals do much like the Indians did last week with Alex White, bring up hot, young talent in the wake of a fast start out of the gate. It is refreshing to see teams like the Royals and Indians not let payroll totally get in the way of trying to win baseball games.

[southpaw]

Snatched him up quickly in my 12 team mixed league roto money league.
I've been looking for a CI replacement ever since Sandoval went down last week.

[special k]

Those of us who bet on Kila but saw Hosmer snatched on reserve before it was our turn on auction day are not enjoying today.

[RobDMay]

This is going to be and $$ week in FAAB Hosmer new closer in Houston etc etc

[Todd Zola]

I just want to say let's not get carried away here. It is still a 21 year old kid with barely over 100 PA at Triple-A. If you need a reminder, two words: Brandon Belt.

That said, his BB/K ratio is pretty impressive.

Just put Hosmer into the projection engine

slash line pretty good

0.285/0.363/0.437

in 400 plate appearances (355 AB)

10 HR
50 R
46 RBI
5 SB

[southpaw]

I'd like to see him bat behind Butler in the lineup but I doubt he'll hit that high, at least early on.

[Todd Zola]

Probably 6th (maybe 7th) and as Frenchy cools down, he could move up.

[CubFan]

I just want to say let's not get carried away here. It is still a 21 year old kid with barely over 100 PA at Triple-A. If you need a reminder, two words: Brandon Belt.

That said, his BB/K ratio is pretty impressive.

Just put Hosmer into the projection engine

slash line pretty good

0.285/0.363/0.437

in 400 plate appearances (355 AB)

10 HR
50 R
46 RBI
5 SB

So, Todd, given the above projection and knowing that rookies typically struggle upon promotion how much FAAB (out of $100) would you pay for him in a 12 team AL only keeper league? Salary cap is $310 after the auction. As a point of reference in our league I got Longoria for $19 when he came up several years back. Since then other owners have paid a bit more for the "next Longoria". My problem in going higher is the high probability of rookies not succeeding when initially called up.

[southpaw]

And what do you think he'll go for in NFBC/WCOFB FAAB this week? I REALLY need a CI. (currently Pena)

[Todd Zola]

Others are much more comfortable and or willing to venture a guess as to a FAAB bid. There are just too many variables and factors involved. I prefer, and have written about, discussing the factors in a general sense.

You need to look at your league history, who needs the player(s) to fit an opening and what their history is. You need to consider how much FAAB you need the rest of the season, etc.

My general advice is if you want him, GET HIM and don't worry about an overbid, especially in the NFBC where you will likely be able to fill in with smart bids on cheap players.

Last week, I WAY WAY overbid for Jonny Venters. I likely did not need him to compete in my league, but if I want to compete on the overall, I need more saves and felt his ratios were good enough to use in my lineup when I wanted to protect from a bad starting pitching matchup. I am hoping for maybe 8-10 vulture saves along the way. I am now out of the Hosmer bidding and the bidding for everyone else of that ilk, but I feel I can get the help I need the rest of the season with the $300-$400 I have left so I was willing to take the potential chiding if it was noticed how much I overbid.

In Tout Wars, I have yet to spend anything, largely because I have been lucky with respect to injuries. We are still at the point where I will spend if I need it, but if I am still holding the full boat in June, I need to consider if I want to control the bidding at the trade deadline.

[Captain Hook]

Todd's projections would throw a bucket of cold water on many potential overbidders but those numbers are a good base.....I will be the average will be at least slightly higher as will the HR.......I would look for close to .300 BAvg and 12-15+ HR......don't forget on history he should get a handful of stolen bases which is very valuable at a 1B/CI spot.


cubsfan - your league context outweighs my seasoned good guesses - personally with a $310 cap I can't imagine that it doesn't take a $100+ bid to get him....What are people going to save their money for? But otoh, in an AL only keeper league, how is he not already owned?

southpaw - easier to put a range here.....BUT even that is slightly dependent on the high/low of remaining budgets AND whether anyone with a reasonable remaining purse has had a CI injury (the Freese owner is VERY hungry) .....my guess is clearly will take a $200++ bid and in many cases some team not already low will dump half their remaining cash on Hosmer - even IF you project that one of the future callups has higher stat rates, they likely won't be up for at LEAST a month (and one of those would have been Moustakas and Hosmer's arrival in front of him suggest he won't be up in the first half of the year unless there is an injury)


In "standard" AL only leagues with a $100 budget where there are no minor leaguers (and that would almost have to be the case for him not to be on a roster) I think it takes a $50+ bid to get him

[viper]

Everything is so league dependent. In the NFBC, you need to consider who will provide "new" blood. Trading is not relevant so only minor leaguers, not already in your free agent ranks, will be that new blood you can go after. You should try and figure out who the others will be and determine Hosmer's worth to them. Realize that you can probably get just one of them. My take would be to bid fairly high if Hosmer will start immediately for your team.

In AL only leagues, the variable of minor leagues coming up in June remains in play. The new factor is inter-league trades. July 31st is the deadline for these.

My personal league rules add another layer of issues. Without benches, who you already have at certain positions comes into play. If your 1B, CO and UT slots are filled by quality players and that CO & UT slot cannot be exchanged with a weak player, Hosmer may be enticing but unrosterable. In my Sunday FAAB league, I have Miggy at 1B, Youkilis at 3B, Encarncion at CO and Matsui at UT. I don't see myself making a bid on Hosmer.

I would love to see a list of likely June callups. I'm sure someone on staff has a good list of likely new blood.

[CubFan]

Todd's projections would throw a bucket of cold water on many potential overbidders but those numbers are a good base.....I will be the average will be at least slightly higher as will the HR.......I would look for close to .300 BAvg and 12-15+ HR......don't forget on history he should get a handful of stolen bases which is very valuable at a 1B/CI spot.


cubsfan - your league context outweighs my seasoned good guesses - personally with a $310 cap I can't imagine that it doesn't take a $100+ bid to get him....What are people going to save their money for? But otoh, in an AL only keeper league, how is he not already owned?

southpaw - easier to put a range here.....BUT even that is slightly dependent on the high/low of remaining budgets AND whether anyone with a reasonable remaining purse has had a CI injury (the Freese owner is VERY hungry) .....my guess is clearly will take a $200++ bid and in many cases some team not already low will dump half their remaining cash on Hosmer - even IF you project that one of the future callups has higher stat rates, they likely won't be up for at LEAST a month (and one of those would have been Moustakas and Hosmer's arrival in front of him suggest he won't be up in the first half of the year unless there is an injury)


In "standard" AL only leagues with a $100 budget where there are no minor leaguers (and that would almost have to be the case for him not to be on a roster) I think it takes a $50+ bid to get him

Perry, our total team salary cap is $310, so if you currently have a team salary of $265 you can't bid more than $45 on a player. Plus we only get $100 of FAAB.

[Captain Hook]

I will trade winning bids with you later tonight - Good Luck

[CubFan]

I will trade winning bids with you later tonight - Good Luck

Perry, winning bid for Hosmer was $52. No one else bid over $30. My $27 bid was third highest. This owner also got Sizemore for $15 even though I also had a bid for $15. Won't go into the specifics on how he was awarded as that is a sore spot with me. Anyway this owner effectively tied his season to Hosmer as he will be effectively shut out from any other decent bat/arm that comes up from the minors or is traded from the NL. As always time will tell if this was a good move on his part.

[Captain Hook]

I will trade winning bids with you later tonight - Good Luck

Perry, winning bid for Hosmer was $52. No one else bid over $30. My $27 bid was third highest. This owner also got Sizemore for $15 even though I also had a bid for $15. Won't go into the specifics on how he was awarded as that is a sore spot with me. Anyway this owner effectively tied his season to Hosmer as he will be effectively shut out from any other decent bat/arm that comes up from the minors or is traded from the NL. As always time will tell if this was a good move on his part.

Well the one good thing about picking Hosmer over waiting is that he is ALREADY up - he will get almost five months of production from him...earliest for the next - and it might not be what he needs will likely be the end of the month.

I did post Hosmer prices from WCOFB.....must have been another thread
As I said in today's Captain's Log, he was not available in either AL TOUT or AL LABR - once rostered in the auction and once in FAAB earlier in the season. In my AL keeper league we have deep farm systems so he has been on a team for a couple of years already.

[Captain Hook]

Hosmer winning bids (with highest underbid) in three WCOFB leagues

337 (243)

580 (355)

388 (I was one of Four teams who bid 333)

[southpaw]

As I noted in the FAAB thread, I got him for $482. Next highest was $422. This was a WCOFB online championship league.

[viper]

At the moment the winning bids are announced, can there be anything worse than making a huge bid and being edged out? And to me, the 333 loss against a winning 388 is being edged out.

Now, three weeks from now, that loss will either be more painful or it could result in a sigh of relief.

In an early NFBC season [2005], I bid around $80 for John Patterson in his singular great season for the Nats. The losing bid was exactly $1 less. I cashed and Peterson was a main reason.

[aburt19]

Hosmer is going to be a fine major leaguer and has a good chance to be a star. But he does have the troubling tendency
to swing at fastballs that are high out of the strike zone. He's going to have to correct that or his BA is going to suffer.
He is great on pitches low in the strike zone. But he's going to get fewer and fewer of those pitches unless he lays off the
high hard one.

[Captain Hook]

Hosmer is going to be a fine major leaguer and has a good chance to be a star. But he does have the troubling tendency
to swing at fastballs that are high out of the strike zone. He's going to have to correct that or his BA is going to suffer.
He is great on pitches low in the strike zone. But he's going to get fewer and fewer of those pitches unless he lays off the
high hard one.

Good point aburt - but hitting is all about making adjustments and Hosmer, new to this level and these pitchers is in a rough patch right now but I feel confident will adjust and be back to hitting (btw he has hit some balls well in this string of ofers but right at someone).

And yes you are correct that we have seen him swing at pitches that are TOO high for him - they appear to him as pitches he can handle when he starts but of course they are too high at the plate.

If you have watched Rizzo, he has the opposite situation - very good control in laying off pitches high in the strike zone much less too high, but pitchers in the majors can get him (for now) on pitches down and in - where most LH hitters like them.

Both will successfully adjust and have long careers IMHO