Tiers of Starting Pitching 2011

[Bodhizefa]

Team Defensive Grades: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... -analysis/

Tiers Part 1: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... and-studs/

Tiers Part 2: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... ide-plays/

Tiers Part 3: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... nd-asleep/

Tiers Part 4: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... ive-plays/

Tiers Part 5: http://www.draftbuddy.com/blog/2011/03/ ... the-water/

[Todd Zola]

People are calling me crazy for my 2-part piece on the changing landscape of pitching in fantasy drafts. It is analysis like this and Paul Sporer's that fueled my reasoning.

There is a difference between getting cheap pitching and getting pitching cheap.

Previously, it was possible to get good pitching cheap. Now, it is harder to do that because we have learned how to recognize good pitching so it is no longer cheap.

So if you now wait to get pitching cheap, you will end up with cheap pitching.

[Bodhizefa]

People are calling me crazy for my 2-part piece on the changing landscape of pitching in fantasy drafts. It is analysis like this and Paul Sporer's that fueled my reasoning.

There is a difference between getting cheap pitching and getting pitching cheap.

Previously, it was possible to get good pitching cheap. Now, it is harder to do that because we have learned how to recognize good pitching so it is no longer cheap.

So if you now wait to get pitching cheap, you will end up with cheap pitching.

I couldn't agree more. A small part of me didn't even want to write the Tiers this year because I see the information as a given in many ways. We've narrowed down enough parts of the pitching process that at this point, most people should be able to eyeball a FanGraphs page and get a decent idea of what to expect from a pitcher based on reading the data on that page. It's not a substitute for watching games, knowing defenses, and understanding park factors, but it's a really good gauge regardless. Good information is readily available for all to peruse, so if you're waiting to get a "sleeper", you're waiting on something that really doesn't exist anymore.

There was a great thread on the old RJ boards about whether "sleepers" even existed anymore (or heck, maybe it was on the old Mastersball boards... I'm getting confused these days, lol). At the time, I thought it seemed like a bit of an overreaction. I'm not sure I feel that way anymore, though. There is so much information out there now that it's tough not to know a lot about a player.

Anyway, I had fun writing the Tiers this year, and in the end, that's the main reason I write it. I hope it's an enjoyable read for all.

[Todd Zola]

There was a great thread on the old RJ boards about whether "sleepers" even existed anymore (or heck, maybe it was on the old Mastersball boards... I'm getting confused these days, lol).

It's on every board....

[Bodhizefa]

There was a great thread on the old RJ boards about whether "sleepers" even existed anymore (or heck, maybe it was on the old Mastersball boards... I'm getting confused these days, lol).

It's on every board....

Which brings me to the question of what in the heck we're supposed to talk about these days on the board?!

[Todd Zola]

There was a great thread on the old RJ boards about whether "sleepers" even existed anymore (or heck, maybe it was on the old Mastersball boards... I'm getting confused these days, lol).

It's on every board....

Which brings me to the question of what in the heck we're supposed to talk about these days on the board?!

I don't know. Maybe how that while Twitter is really cool and everything, it has effed up those of us trying to get a community going.

[Bodhizefa]

I don't know. Maybe how that while Twitter is really cool and everything, it has effed up those of us trying to get a community going.

It's sad in some ways. There's more information than ever before coming our way via Twitter and the web, but in getting all this information from strangers, I feel like the community aspect has been lost in many ways. Sure, we get to interact with the big sports media more via Twitter, but at the cost of interacting with our peers. The internet keeps shifting how we deal with people into more and more global connectivity, but the closer peer communities suffer. It's just like how we don't really talk to our neighbors in our neighborhood as often anymore (or ever, in some cases). The way we interact with people is changing very quickly, and I'm not sure people are aware of it (or if they even care).

Anyway, Mastersball 4 Life!

[viper]

your circle of close friends can become smaller. The whole thing is partially responsible for my cutting back in fantasy to just local leagues where we all get together for drafts/auctions.

[deansdaddy]

Well - as someone who is trying to bring my energies to these boards , while also posting my Twitter feed in my sig, I will say that it would be nice if the rise of one didn't mean the demise of others. However - I don't blame Twitter as much as I do the Iphone. Twitter is just one outlet. The Iphone is the device that has brought this on. For me Twitter can't replace the interaction you can get here. I don't know what the answer is but all we can try to do is build something that others will find value in.

[ravenmad]

Bod,

I cannot thank you enough for your pitching tiers. While the stats are all there for anyone to plumb, not everyone has the time or inclination to put something like this together.

I used the list extensively in both my drafts this weekend and think I came out with stellar pitching at very reasonable prices.

Edited to ask:

You are much higher than most on Daniel Hudson (I think you rank him #21). While his numbers and peripherals look great, the consensus among scouts and commentators familiar with him indicate that his stuff is only middle of the rotation. Is it because he developed a change last year?

[AllstonRockCity]

You are much higher than most on Daniel Hudson (I think you rank him #21). While his numbers and peripherals look great, the consensus among scouts and commentators familiar with him indicate that his stuff is only middle of the rotation. Is it because he developed a change last year?

i am almost positive that buster olney covered this in his blog about 6 weeks ago. last year, you would have been right. now I believe scouts are split some see him as a high end #2 and some are sticking to their initial evaluation.

on my way out the door, otherwise i would find the link for you. I know its there, you just need to find it.

so many other topics in this thread I have opinions on, will revisit later.

[Todd Zola]

Well - as someone who is trying to bring my energies to these boards , while also posting my Twitter feed in my sig, I will say that it would be nice if the rise of one didn't mean the demise of others. However - I don't blame Twitter as much as I do the Iphone. Twitter is just one outlet. The Iphone is the device that has brought this on. For me Twitter can't replace the interaction you can get here. I don't know what the answer is but all we can try to do is build something that others will find value in.

I don't mean to sound like a Gloomy Gus. I have always preached quality over quantity and I will take the quality of the people we have here over the quantity of many other places. And I feel this will be the Field of Dreams of forums, we have built it, they will come.

[deansdaddy]

For me twitter is a good resource to take me TO places like these forums.

[Bodhizefa]

Bod,

I cannot thank you enough for your pitching tiers. While the stats are all there for anyone to plumb, not everyone has the time or inclination to put something like this together.

I used the list extensively in both my drafts this weekend and think I came out with stellar pitching at very reasonable prices.

Edited to ask:

You are much higher than most on Daniel Hudson (I think you rank him #21). While his numbers and peripherals look great, the consensus among scouts and commentators familiar with him indicate that his stuff is only middle of the rotation. Is it because he developed a change last year?

The caveats on Hudson (for me) are this:
1. Chase Field is especially good for left-handed power hitters
2. Hudson is a right-handed flyball pitcher, meaning he's the type of pitcher that profiles to be prone to getting hit hard by the guys mentioned in #1
3. Hudson just doesn't look like someone who should dominate

But I still love him. He induces a lot of infield flyballs against right-handed hitters as his delivery is deceptive to them and his fastball bores in on them before they can get a handle on it. And it's his change-up that really seals the deal for me. It was a dynamite pitch for him in 2010, and it was the final piece of the equation I needed to believe in Hudson against lefties. Do I think his homerun rate will go up in 2011, especially against lefties? Yes. But I also think there's a bit of an uptick in strikeouts on the way along with a very good outfield defense behind him as an asset to his flyball-happy style of pitching. I love his stuff and see him as the perfect type of pitcher to get the most out of the talent he has. He has a great arsenal to be effective against hitters from both sides, and while regression should hit him a bit, I think he's got more upside than other lists I've seen due to that great arsenal combined with his defense.