Keeper league draft strategy

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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southpaw

Keeper league draft strategy

#1 Post by southpaw »

I'm in a money 5 keeper league - 12 teams - 5x5 std roto

Keepers have been locked in for all teams as the deadline to submit them was yesterday.
Draft order is based on previous years finish. I finished in 10th so I have the 3rd pick in the snake draft.

Here are my keepers:
Dunn 1B
Cabrera 1B
Kinsler 2B
Heyward OF
Kershaw SP

My 5 keepers are totally a product of off-season trades. I had 5 different keepers when last season ended. I don't know if I necessarily improved my overall keeper value but I definitely got younger.

One of the teams drafting ahead of me kept 3 SP's and the other kept 2 SP's so the likelihood of either team taking a pitcher is remote.
So assuming they each take a bat, I'm trying to formulate a game plan for my 3rd pick and subsequent picks for the next 2 rounds after that.

With many top tier SP's being kept by the 12 teams, there are actually more quality "overall top 60" bats out there over pitching. The top non-kept SP is Haren. So with that said, I believe I must take a bat as the pool is not as shallow as SP.

Here are some bats that were non-kept:

Weeks 2B
Utley 2B (I won't touch him but his status could change between now and draft day 3/22)
Cruz OF (hard to believe but the team that didn't keep him has an embarrassment of riches and finished 2nd last year)
Pence OF
C. Young OF
Rasmus OF
Rios OF
Bruce OF
Stubbs OF
Victorino OF
McCann C
Jeter SS

Assuming Cruz is one of the bats taken with pick 1 or pick 2, which two players should I target with pick 3? I'm taking Cruz if he falls to me but I'm playing with somewhat competent owners so I don't see that happening. I'm thinking Pence is probably one of the two. I think he's good for at least 25/25 with a good avg. I'm also big on C. Young this year; bullish on him than most. I'm sort of adverse to taking McCann because I took him first in last year's draft and traded him away mid-season when he was having those eye issues.
Whoever I get in the first round, I'm thinking when it comes back to me, to target one of mid-tier 3B such as Reynolds, McGehee, Alvarez, Aramis in round 2 and take an SP2 in round 3.

What do you think?

Black Sox
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Joined: January 4th, 2010, 10:39 am
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Re: Keeper league draft strategy

#2 Post by Black Sox »

If I were you I'd be focused on Stubbs, Rasmus & Alvarez. I'd be focused on getting as much young talent as possible. I'd also focus on hitters more than pitchers. Haren does nothing for you. By the time your ready to contend it won't be with someone like Haren, just my opinion.
Boston Black Sox
Steve Le Blanc

Boner

Re: Keeper league draft strategy

#3 Post by Boner »

i like rasmus here in the 3 slot.

southpaw

Re: Keeper league draft strategy

#4 Post by southpaw »

Yeah, the more I research and think about it, the more I like Rasmus here too.

southpaw

Re: Keeper league draft strategy

#5 Post by southpaw »

Black Sox wrote:If I were you I'd be focused on Stubbs, Rasmus & Alvarez. I'd be focused on getting as much young talent as possible. I'd also focus on hitters more than pitchers. Haren does nothing for you. By the time your ready to contend it won't be with someone like Haren, just my opinion.
One name I inadvertently left off the available list is Ellsbury. Not sure if he goes in first two. Perhaps he does. But if he's available at #3, I might go for him instead of Rasmus. The thing that has me worried are these reports of where he hits in the Boston batting order. First he might hit 9 and then I read he might lead off. Leading off and hitting 9 are going to make a big difference in his overall value, no?

southpaw

Re: Keeper league draft strategy

#6 Post by southpaw »

Here's the team I ended up with:

C Mauer
1b Miggy
2b Kinsler
SS Desmond
3b Sandoval
MI Uribe
CI Dunn
OF Heyward
OF Rasmus
OF Pagan
OF Tabata
OF Span
Res Espinosa
Res G. Sizemore

P Kershaw
P Scherzer
P Marcum
P Romero
P E. Santana
P J. Garcia
P Papelbon
P Putz
P Chapman
P Uehara
Res D. Hernandez

So with the #3 pick, I ended up taking Mauer. I didn't even realize until I entered the draft room and saw the list that he wasn't kept. Not a huge Mauer fan but couldn't pass him up in this spot. First pick went to Cruz as expected, 2nd to Rios. I had to wait until it came all the way back around to me and lo and behold, Rasmus was still there. So I grabbed him with round 7, pick 10. Took Scherzer in round 8, pick 3 and away I went.
As you can see, benches are shallow so for the time being, I picked Hernandez with my last pick as an early season handcuff for Putz in case he isn't ready on opening day. Plus, once I can put Grady on the DL (1 DL slot), I can make a FA pickup of whatever I need.
So how do you think I did?

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