Auction Leagues - Strategy for putting up players

[themather]

I play in an 18 team, auction keeper league (standard 23 man roster, $260 cap), and I feel like I've been able to hone a decent auction strategy each season. That being said, I think one of my weaknesses is the strategy involved when it comes to putting players up for auction.

I've tried the "only put up players you're not interested in" theory, as well as the complete opposite by throwing up guys I definitely wanted. I wasn't fully satisfied in either case ... I felt like guys I didn't want/need went for solid values, while the guys I wanted/needed went for a premium.

I was thinking of this year targeting guys who were a couple players down on the list (i.e. the fourth best reliever available), with the thought that I might be able to snag them at a value since other owners would think "Well I can always still go after XXXX, so I can stop bidding on this guy." Anybody had success with this?

Also ... anybody out there feel like they have a successful strategy when it comes to snagging deep sleeper/cheap guys? Is it worth tossing these guys out earlier in a draft in hopes that everyone else will ignore them? I've tried this a couple times, but always manage to throw out a guy 2 or 3 people have an interest in and the "cheap sleeper" goes for $15 because everybody still has a lot of money to play with.

Would love to hear any and all thoughts on this process.

[viper]

I have pretty much the same questions as you although my leagues are all redraft leagues. So far a high percent of the board talk is on keeper lists - which makes sense as they are due about now. I am anxiously waiting for Todd's Auction article next week even those it's may be only on how tiering works in auction. You question is more what I am curious about.

I believe you should mix in players you want and don't really want early. I am a Stars & Scrubs type person.

I am tempted to nominate some $10 type players early hoping I can get them at a discount as people are waiting for the big money guys.

I wonder if you could get a Vladimir at a deep discount early because no one wants to fill their DH position that early. My leagues have no benches so you cannot over draft a position is your DH slot is filled.

My league tends to nominate the highest value guys first.

[Todd Zola]

The more I think about and try to come up with pithy witticisms about auction dynamics, the more I realize they don't exist. Each auction is different and takes on its own personality. Every time a trick "works", you can find an instance where it didn't and vice versa.

I can throw my cheap guy out and get crickets and I am a genius for thinking everyone else was waiting on someone else. But all it means is i am the only one that likes the guy -- which may not be such a good thing.

You can throw out a cheap guys and get bid up because someone else shares your opinion and then someone else says "if these guys are bidding, he must be good" and joins in. And you are now foolish for not waiting.

I think the best thing you can do is make the other people think you are doing something crafty so they try to figure it out but all you are really doing is thinking about your team, the available inventory and how to get as much of it as possible on your team. Every second they are thinking about you is one less they are focusing on their own team.

So all I do is change things up, but without a rhyme or reason within that change. I am always amazed at how many come up to me and contend that they figure out what I was doing. And when they share that thought with me, who am I to tell them they were wrong? If they think they are right, they wil try to figure out what you are doing in the next auction.

I will write about this next week, but my primary focus is on my roster spots and if the inventory is set up that I can fill each spot with a player at that intended value. The rest is just a dog and pony show.

[deansdaddy]

One thing I do like to do sometimes early in an auction is try to set the market value with SP's and Closers by throwing out the Top Ranked player at these positions. If Halladay is on the board - I might toss him out there, even if I don't plan on buying him. You can sit back and watch the bidding and when the dust settles, you have more or less set the "Cap" for all the SP's to follow. The same goes for closers.

Something else to consider is to nominate positions you have already filled. Say you buy Pujols early in your auction. You might choose to throw out other Top 1B to get money off the table at that position.

I have no problem nominating players I have no intention of buying early in the draft as long as I know they will take big money off other owners budgets.

There are many other things to talk about here - this is just a few.

[Tampa Bob]

The thing about throwing out big names early is that those guys will pull money out of the pot anyway. As Viper noted, my league generally takes big names early anyway. I don't think there's a "best method" for me. One thing I do, though, is call out a guy I know will be sought that I don't want when I need to collect my thoughts, do some math, or check a pending guy out. It buys me time.

[alleyoops]

I try to "read the room". That is, throw out guys who I don't want, but others will overbid on when the room is bidding readily, and throw out guys who I do want when the bidding has been in a bit of a lull (e.g. if the last few guys have gone for less than your value for them). It seems that most of the auctions I've been in have these periods of overbidding and underbidding. Sometimes it's keyed to the remaining $ of the more aggressive bidding managers. If they've just bought a high-priced guy or two, they'll slow down, so it may be time to try to buy someone you want.

Another key time to only bring up guys who you want is toward the end, since it's very possible, even likely you could wind up with them. You can play some games bringing up your 2nd choice instead of your first, hoping somebody else bids and your first choice makes it to you in dollar days, but that's pretty risky, since usually your first choice is somebody else's first choice, too.

Another consideration is that you may want to bring up a guy who can influence your later strategy, depending on whether you get him or not. You don't want to be caught in a spot where your other options are gone, he comes up for bidding later, and you're forced to overbid for him (or worse yet, you don't get him and have $ left on the table). Better to bring him up, see if you get him, and still have time to go to Plan B if you don't.

[themather]

I can certainly echo Todd's "every auction is different" sentiment, which what makes the format so challenging. A standard draft is a standard draft, and though there will be some variations, you still have a pretty good idea of what will happen and when. Auctions are a totally different beast.

Heck ... I can't even seem to predict what's going to happen in my OWN league from year to year, so this year I'm trying to be open-minded with no real "set" strategy. Yeah, I could be "stars and scrubs" in theory, but if 17 other guys have the same plan, I'm screwed.

As for the strategy of putting up players, after giving it some more thought and reading the strategies of others, I think I may employ a rolling strategy based on what's happened over the last 5 or so picks. (Obviously this is for early to mid draft, later you gotta go for what you want/need/is left). My thought is if can successfully read the room, it may play to my advantage. Some examples ...

* If the room has just come off a couple high bidding wars for a first basemen, and I can also see that all three owners who were big bidders have now gotten a guy, it's probably the perfect time for me to throw up another 1B that I can probably get at a decent value, since those owners are now out of the running.

* At the same time, if an owner or two has been a strong bidder at a position, but still hasn't gotten their man, it's probably in my best interests to either a) Throw up another 1B to get them to spend their money (if that's what I think will help me most down the road), or b) Throw up a totally different position in hopes of catching some of the room "off guard" (if that's even possible).

* As things roll toward the middle of the draft ... if I see one last higher-tier guy remaining at a position, I need recognize that in a room of 18 owners, there's almost certainly somebody else who's noticed this and is "saving up" for him. So I wanna throw his name out there ASAP so it isn't a case where I wait on this guy, watch every other viable option go off the board, and then get in a bidding war for somebody like Steven Drew because no other shortstops are left.

* Throw out EARLY some of the guys being heralded as "sleepers" ... Everybody reads the same stuff online, so they're all thinking "oh this guy's gonna break out this year" ... so get that guy out there when there's plenty of money to go around that can be used up. A great example of this in my league last year was when Jacoby Ellsbury went for an absurd $40 on draft day. Guys like Ryan Raburn and Drew Stubbs come to mind right off the top of my head.

Basically every time I think my league is going to zig, they zag, so I'm trying to be better prepared for that this year.

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm a huge proponent of getting money off the table ....but it comes with a caveat. To me, throwing out a name like Pujols or Miggy or Halliday or the Freak isn't getting money off the table - the money for those guys has already been spent before their names ever come out - it's just a matter of who scoops up the pot that point.

The first thing I would recommend is to follow the advice of a wise Forum Funklord, who once said; "Know Thy League". Where does the money tend to go in your league - especially once the big ticket items are gone? Who is most likely to price enforce (if anyone)? Do you check to see who throws out what name? What mid game bidders are more likely to throw players they want and are those names point in time budget dependent?

There are some general rules of thumb - but they may not apply in your situation. Viper started a very thought provoking thread about dollar days at the end of an auction last year - I'd take a look at it and see if you recognize any patterns for your league (it's too bad the old boards are pfffft ...there were some great threads about tells there). The Viper thread is at :
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=417&hilit=dollar

The jist of what I suppose I'm saying is that all of these little pearls of wisdom are only effective in a league specific context - i would recommend you do a little due diligence of the habits of your co-owners this year - from what you've already written, I'd say you know yourself pretty well. Whatever happens, good luck.

[viper]

Reading these posts and also understanding how my league does things, here is what I think.

There is no real strategy in auctions. The best you can do I know the player inventory. Know the players you would like and, more importantly, identify the players you do not want. Of course, I may not want a player but if the cost is too low, you may have to jump in.

Keep good records on money left and positions yet to fill. This is even more important in my 10-team AL and NL only leagues since benches do not exist. As a result and as the draft gets toward the latter stages, some owners are locked out of bidding on certain positions.

I do sometimes submit a player that others will bid on in order to allow me time to catch up in record keeping and to take a deep breath.

The only real strategy decision needed is if you plan to go the Stars & Scrubs direction with multiple $1/$2 players at the end or if you let the high dollar players pass you by and try to win with a solid core of mid-range dollar players. You can win both ways so this decision should be made by personal comfort level.

The 25th and 27th are my first two auctions. That gives me about 17 days to get everything together. I want it all done by the 23rd so I can sit back and relax the day before I head off to the beginning of my fantasy season.

[themather]

The 25th and 27th are my first two auctions. That gives me about 17 days to get everything together. I want it all done by the 23rd so I can sit back and relax the day before I head off to the beginning of my fantasy season.

Mine's the 19th, so I'll be sure to get online after that weekend and post any trends I've noticed. Granted, this is an 18 team keeper league, so things will certainly be different, but it's always nice to know who seems to be overvalued/undervalued, sleepers, etc.

[CubFan]

Be flexible. Have a Plan B, C, and D when A doesn't work.....because in many cases your Plan A will end up being a hybrid of several plans. Like others have posted I've gone the route of throwing out players I wanted and more often those I don't. But our league is around 15 years with the bulk of the original owners still there....so tendencies get figured out. Echo time...Know Thy League. I also like to do what kid does....throw big money names out there to take some money off the table...but be prepared to pounce if they are below what you believe they are worth and fit one of your plans.

A handful of years ago I looked at previous auction prices of our initial rosters to see if there was a common thread for those who ended up in the money. In our league there was. Rarely, if ever, did teams who initially spend $40+ on a player end up finishing in the top 4. Personally, I'll let others have them and will only be in the bidding if I know the other owner really wants him and I'll stick around to bid him up. So, I suspect this year I'll nominate both players I want and don't want.....and be ready to buy them if their prices look cheap and under my top threshold.

[Boulder Rifles2]

I don't think that one can go into an auction not knowing when to propose players that you want, players that might go under value or players that will eat up cash. I think it is like counting cards at Blackjack, when it is in your favor bet big, when it is not, don't bet.

For me and my money league, tracking inflation is the key metric. The first few rounds, the salary dollars are readily available and inflation can be really steep. Here I don't throw out anyone that I want but I do put out people that others want to test the market and soak up cash. There is usually a brief lull in the third or fourth round where players approach value and then it is players I do want. Fifth and sixth can be bad so I hold off again until the later rounds but after the eighth, it is all players I want, but carefully.

It is important to note that you have to have a means of tracking inflation to do this. If players are throwing out $10 players early, inflation will last longer and the value spike will be shorter. If it is all the prime players in the first couple of rounds, there might not be much inflation after round 5. It is a dynamic process without a set method.