NL only keepers

[alleyoops]

12 teams, 5x5, can keep at most 6, salaries increase $5 each year, except for minor leaguers who were promoted last year but not activated (Heisey). Keepers due 3/12.

Plan to keep: Votto 18, Stanton 8, Stubbs 14, Torres 6. Possibles for the other two spots:

Kimbrel 6 - will probably keep, as he should at least share the closer role.
Heisey 1 - on the fence. Probably 4th OF, but some upside.
Kuo 6 - may be worth this if he doesn't close, and upside if Broxton implodes.
Dickey 7 - he's old, and can he repeat last half of last year?

Help on which 2 of these guys to keep? I'm pretty sure of Kimbrel, then tough between the other three, but probably leaning toward Heisey.

[cwk1963]

I'd keep Heisey at $1 - he certainly will return a profit on that once Dusty comes to the realization Gomes can't really play defense or hit right handers.

[Captain Hook]

12 teams, 5x5, can keep at most 6, salaries increase $5 each year, except for minor leaguers who were promoted last year but not activated (Heisey). Keepers due 3/12.

Plan to keep: Votto 18, Stanton 8, Stubbs 14, Torres 6. Possibles for the other two spots:

Kimbrel 6 - will probably keep, as he should at least share the closer role.
Heisey 1 - on the fence. Probably 4th OF, but some upside.
Kuo 6 - may be worth this if he doesn't close, and upside if Broxton implodes.
Dickey 7 - he's old, and can he repeat last half of last year?

Help on which 2 of these guys to keep? I'm pretty sure of Kimbrel, then tough between the other three, but probably leaning toward Heisey.

I keep the Ks - Kimbrel and Kuo
Both will earn positive value even if they don't close much

I like Heisey but with Fred Lewis aboard and Gomes starting (coughasofyesterdayfromDustycough) he might not even make the team. Dickey you might get back for less and if not, no problem

[da_big_kid_94]

The most expensive one is the one who most likely caught lightning in a Coca-Cola bottle ...so he's out until proven otherwise. Dusty has too many OF options and a lot of things they're saying about Heisey now, they said about Chris Dickerson last spring ..and look how that worked out. I think that Captain has it pegged ...the Deuce K's.

[alleyoops]

Interesting seeing the differing responses. I agree that Dickey's out. I had planned on Kuo until recently, then switched to Heisey. The reasons I switched (mentally) were 1) I might get Kuo back for around 6 in the auction 2) Heisey was pretty strong in the minors before last year, and at $1 I don't lose much by keeping him if he doesn't work out, 3) in this format, one closer is sufficient, so if Kimbrel is that, Kuo is somewhat redundant.

All that said, I'm now back to it being a tossup. I guess it boils down to what kind of shot Heisey has, and how Broxton does. Probably need a crystal ball for those, but it does seem like a Broxton implosion is more likely than Heisey getting substantial playing time and producing. Back in the Kuo court....

[da_big_kid_94]

Interesting seeing the differing responses. I agree that Dickey's out. I had planned on Kuo until recently, then switched to Heisey. The reasons I switched (mentally) were 1) I might get Kuo back for around 6 in the auction 2) Heisey was pretty strong in the minors before last year, and at $1 I don't lose much by keeping him if he doesn't work out, 3) in this format, one closer is sufficient, so if Kimbrel is that, Kuo is somewhat redundant.

All that said, I'm now back to it being a tossup. I guess it boils down to what kind of shot Heisey has, and how Broxton does. Probably need a crystal ball for those, but it does seem like a Broxton implosion is more likely than Heisey getting substantial playing time and producing. Back in the Kuo court....

Not saying Broxton might not implode ...seems all but the great ones do at least once in their career - but an implosion viewed through Joe Torre's eyes may look a lot different than one viewed through Donnie Baseball's eyes.

[mjlewis]

in this format, one closer is sufficient, so if Kimbrel is that, Kuo is somewhat redundant.

Given that, I think it means you have to keep both Kimbrel and Kuo. If you assume that everyone is going to have one closer, then unless you think you're going to do better than everyone else at picking up a surprise closer midseason, what you have with Kimbrel is something like 2/3 of a closer, which means that you're probably going to do just well enough to be behind everyone who has a full closer. Kimbrel is nice because he's better than having the equivalent middle reliever that most other teams will have, but you also probably need to have as many real closers as everyone else if you have the option. Kimbrel and Kuo is maybe worth the same as a really good full closer or 1 1/3 closers or something like that.

Did that make any sense? It did while I was thinking about it...

- Mike

[alleyoops]

I understand what you're saying, Mike. I actually think it's likely that Kimbrel will win the job full-time at some point in the season, but that may be wishful thinking on my part. On the other hand, Kuo is probably unlikely to get a significant number of saves. It's possible the unlikely parts could win out, though. So between them, they could be anything from 0 to 2 closers. Probably not 0, since Kimbrel should at least get a few opportunities early on, even if he blows it. Probably not 2, since Kuo almost certainly won't get any saves until (unless) Broxton blows it.

There is always a chance to gain saves during the season, as I did from Kuo last year. Seems like more and more turnover in that role. Of course, all owners realize that, and good setup guys are worth rostering anyway, so you have to take that into account in the draft. Given that, I think Kuo might actually go for 9-11 if I throw him back, so probably not realistic that I'd get him (especially since I'm planning to spend a bit more on SPs this year than I have in the past).