Pujols and The Nationals

[viper]

Ok, that sounds stupid but think about it. Note that MLBTR had the Nationals as one of the teams that were most likely to be in play.

First, Albert wants $30M per year for 10 years, or in that general range. Also, ignore that LaRoche signed a contract. Let's follow the money.

The Nationals average ticket price is $51. Their 2010 attendance was around 22,000 per game. If the Nats got Pujols, it is hard to imagine any less that a 10,000 jump in average attendance - that is still only about 75% capacity. For 81 home dates, that works out to over $40M in extra attendance revenue. Add a few beers and he could create extra revenue of $50M per year.

And the lineup in 2013 [not 2012] could easily be:
Pujols - best player in baseball
Espinosa - probably an average to above average 2B
Zimmerman - top level 3B
Desmond - agin probably average to above average SS
LF - think a FA who like what he sees
Harper - very high impact rookie
Werth - above average RF or better
Wilson or Norris - solid
Strasburg - young but clearly a player all teams would like
Zimmermann - good #2 or #3, I hope
Storen - closer

That team would make FA starting pitchers look long and hard at Nationals so i think the staff would get to an above average level.

Even with Pujols $30M per year, this scenario leaves a minimum of $20M for those open holes and that is with just 75% attendance. What helps is that the Nationals have a low payroll and only 50% attendance. Of all the teams in the Pujols mix, the Nats may be the only ones who could see a large attendance spike.

Of course, this thought is crazy by a Nats fans but, if you follow the money, it doesn't seem all that crazy.

[Black Sox]

Viper,

You make a compelling argument and might be right. I also know that the owner of the Nats is older and would like to see a winner before he passes. They also might be the only team that wouldn't regret signing him to what he wants. I mean one only need to look at the slow decline of A Rod and realize that he still has 5 YEARS LEFT on that contract he signed. At least in the Nat's case he might become their own HOF player and become the face of Nats franchise for years and years.

I will say as a fan of the sport it's a shame he'll be leaving St. Louis. I understand his right to go to the highest bidder but as much as I can't stand La Russa, he's right with players that just go for the all out $$ grab, come to regret that decision in the end. That's why what C.Lee did was so refreshing. I really wish Baseball would get it's act together and come to understand that a more competitive landscape could mean so much more $$$ for ALL the owners. I feel sorry for fans of small market teams that know before the first pitch is thrown that they have no chance to win. I understand that some of those teams problems run deeper than $$, but it def plays a major role in their ability to keep homegrown talent.

Keep in mind this is all coming from a Red Sox fan who benefits greatly from the current economic landscape in baseball.

[Captain Hook]

You might be right about the Nationals being in the right position...IF

But I think today that Pujols will be a Cardinal next year and beyond

[Todd Zola]

I agree with Perry.

Plus, the "math" needs to incorporate Desmond, Espinosa, Harper, Strasburg and Storen all getting incrementally more money each season and all being in line to be bought out of some arbitration/free agency years about the same time, which is admittedly in the middle to tail end of the hypothetical 10-year pact, but still, it needs to be considered. I'm not sure the Nats have the ability to "rob Peter to pay Paul" and not be concerned they are screwed in 2017 or whatever.

[Black Sox]

They didn't seem to concerned when they vastly overpaid for J.Werth. That was do to two things...

1. They knew to get someone to sign with them they were going to have to overpay.

2. The current ownership. Quite frankly the owner prob won't be alive in 2017 and as the saying goes " you can't take it with you "

Just my opinion...

PS - I also think that if someone will meet his price Pujols is as good as gone. So unless St Louis is willing to meet his price ( which would be foolish and cripple that team ) he's gone.

[Todd Zola]

There's only one team that can meet his price and

1. Not cripple their franchise
2. Be enticing enough assuming Pujols "wants to win."

And that team already has a pretty good first baseman as well as a pretty good third baseman likely to be DHing before too long.

So unless the Yankees decide to go with two 1B and play short somewhere else, like Perry said, I see Pujols staying in St. Louis. They will get creative, work with the MLBPA to make the contract acceptable, using deferred money, or giving him part ownership, etc.

[aburt19]

I agree. The number of teams that are willing and able to grant the kind of contract that Pujols wants are limited.
The Yankees can and the Red Sox might be able to swing it. But both teams have first basemen who are either signed
to a long term contract or who they are trying to sign to a long term contract. Any other team signing Pujols is spending
about 25% of a $100,000,000 payroll on one player, which is going to cripple their ability to build a competitive team
around him. Texas tried it with Arod and traded him when they found that it didn't work.

I too think he'll be back with the Cardinals because there aren't enough teams to furnish a market for Pujols to play
one team against another to get exactly what he wants.

[viper]

I suspect that Albert will stay with the Cardinals. I also believe the Nats would meet his desired numbers. What I see is that the Nats are about the only team who have a huge attendance upside of those teams who may go after Albert. Coupled that with a currently low payroll and the mind wonders.

[da_big_kid_94]

Of course, it appears that all of this speculation about Albert seems to assume the ownership status quo is maintained throughout MLB. However, I can also see one East Coast franchise and one West Coast franchise that could get interested immediately should their ownership situations be forced to change via the legal system. And were I Albert? I'd want to keep my options open regarding those two franchises.

[brian]

The Cardinals will surely be given right to match any bids. If they don't keep Pujols, it will only be because they choose not to pay, a potentially-disastrous outcome given their strategy to date. Having not traded him for a Teixeira-sized take two years ago and ending up with just two comp draft picks to show for losing the best player in the game would indicate a terribly failed strategy.

Bottom line, the Cards may have to pay through the nose, but they have little choice but to do it. Pujols knows this so is motivated to let others bid up his price.

My article on the home page today is about why I think the uncertainty could weigh on Pujols this season and affect his results - a bit. After all, he is still Albert.