Inflation Calculation

[aburt19]

I understand how to calculate inflation. But the question is whether inflation should be calculated separately for
pitching and hitting.

I'm in a 10 team AL only league. Due to a lot of pitchers that are carried over at bargain prices, if I calculate the
inflation rate for pitchers separately, it comes out to a 55% inflation rate and the hitting inflation rate is about 19%.
If combined the inflation rate is about 29%.

If I use separate rates and everyone else uses a combined rate, I will get the pitchers at what I consider to be below
market value. But I'll have values for hitters that are below what everyone else is figuring they are worth. The converse
is true if I use a combined rate and other owner uses a separate rate. My inclination is that think that most, if not all,
will use a combined inflation rate, in spite of the fact that separate rates, in my opinion, are more accurate.

Which is the way to go?

[Todd Zola]

This is a topic that I cannot possibly cover in a forum reply. I'm not sure I can cover it at all, at least with an answer people want to hear.

If you ask this question to 5 experts, 4 will say to calculate it separately, because it sounds smarter and experts like to sound smart. The 5th won't really get the question and say just do it the same and adjust.

Here is my problem with the concept of inflation. We are trying to model and quantify something that cannot be modeled and quantified.

1. Inflation is not applied linearly, which is what the conventional inflation calculation does. It gives the same relative adjustment to a $1 player as a $40 player. Practically speaking, this just simply is not what occurs in your auction. Even with the linear correction, the top players will go for even greater inflated prices.

2. The normal reaction here is why not model it as such, giving more to the top players and less to the middle and end game players. I don't have an issue with this, and have done some work in this area, so long as the resultant values are not a green light/red light number. Auctions always take finesses to understand market value. Keeper auctions take even more finesse that cannot be programmed by an algorithm.

3. Many do the linear adjustment and never alter the values again. After each player is purchased, the "inflation rate" changes. Yes, you can write a program to make the changes dynamically, but what does it say in general if Corey Hart is worth $38 when the draft begins, then $34 after 10 players are bought at "over-inflated" prices. What if he came up within the first 10 players when he was "worth" $36 or $37? He is the SAME player. His expected production did not change.

4. Modeling assumes you have a general idea of how things will go and it quantifies it. In a keeper league, you have no idea how people will think. Everyone's keeper list is different and they have money to burn. Not to mention not everyone really understands keeper league dynamics. So the chase positions or categories they are deficient. Or maybe some want to go extreme stars and scrubs, in an effort to acquire guys to trade at the deadline. There is no algorithm that can model that sort of thinking.

Putting this all together, to me, a keeper auction requires more intuition (coming from experience) than an "accurate" set of inflation adjusted auction values which are fluid and involves values for players unique to the fantasy owner.

That said, I understand that some need a means of keeping them on track. So long as they understand the resultant values are a ROUGH GUIDE and not a concrete STOP-GO, the way I have found as close to reasonable is to adjust the CVRC by doing the following (I have a primer describing this,, I will dig it up).

1. Remove the keepers from the player list
2. Add up the salary for the frozen player and adjust the $260 budget to reflect the frozen salary.
3. Adjust the number of hitters/pitchers given positive value so that number, plus the keepers gives the correct final total.
4. Re-run values. What happens is there is more money to distribute to the player pool. The lower end get the same $1 as they are just above the replacement. The top end picks up the excess, making them higher than they would if the whole pool was there.

The exact tweaks are in the primer, but this is the general way of approaching it.

Though, I do need to review the means of accounting for different pitcher/hitter rates.

This is something I plan on discussing in greater detail in February, once profiles are present and accounted for.

[aburt19]

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and
hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation
rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be a $26 pitcher before inflation. That's enough that it seriously
affects strategy.

[Todd Zola]

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and
hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation
rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be a $26 pitcher before inflation. That's enough that it seriously
affects strategy.

True, until everyone starts going bonkers on starting pitching and the inflation deflates.

Or, you note that prices are not that high initially, telling you to buy early and not wait for the epiphany from your league-mates later and prices start to inflate.

I admit, this is where I have come to rely on intuition and not a spreadsheet. This is where a guide of inflated values may be useful for some, so long as, like I said, they are a guide and not stop/go. Starters in general, going for less than the 55% inflated price -- BUY.

The other aspect to consider is TRADING is so integral to keeper leagues, assuming the league permits some degree of the so-called dump trading.

In order to have cheap keepers to deal, you need farm players, or to have drafted some end gamers that emerge. So sometimes, you need to plan your draft accordingly and take some fliers on $1 players, meaning you can spend a bit at the top to secure top talent.

[Captain Hook]

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and
hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation
rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be a $26 pitcher before inflation. That's enough that it seriously
affects strategy.

First I agree with everything Todd said, and frankly in the two keeper league AL/NL only auctions I play in I rely more on experience, familiarity with leaguemates, and projected rates of production......BUT separate inflation adjusted lists for hitters and pitchers is Great, IF/only if you know your leaguemates use specific hitting/pitching budges and stick to them. Most players do NOT stick to hitting/pitching splits/budgets which would render a plan to follow them useless although yes it should give you a solid feeling for relative valuation.

[aburt19]

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and
hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation
rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be a $26 pitcher before inflation. That's enough that it seriously
affects strategy.

First I agree with everything Todd said, and frankly in the two keeper league AL/NL only auctions I play in I rely more on experience, familiarity with leaguemates, and projected rates of production......BUT separate inflation adjusted lists for hitters and pitchers is Great, IF/only if you know your leaguemates use specific hitting/pitching budges and stick to them. Most players do NOT stick to hitting/pitching splits/budgets which would render a plan to follow them useless although yes it should give you a solid feeling for relative valuation.

Interesting concept about whether owners in the league use hitting/pitching budgets. If not, then the whole idea of
a 69/31, 68/32, etc. split when calculating dollars value, with or without inflation becomes useless except for relative
valuation.

[Todd Zola]

Thanks. In most of my years of playing this game, I have never seen such a spread between inflation for pitching and
hitting. I agree that there isn't a linear relationship and can adjust for that. But the difference between a 29% inflation
rate and a 55% inflation rate is about $8 on what would be a $26 pitcher before inflation. That's enough that it seriously
affects strategy.

First I agree with everything Todd said, and frankly in the two keeper league AL/NL only auctions I play in I rely more on experience, familiarity with leaguemates, and projected rates of production......BUT separate inflation adjusted lists for hitters and pitchers is Great, IF/only if you know your leaguemates use specific hitting/pitching budges and stick to them. Most players do NOT stick to hitting/pitching splits/budgets which would render a plan to follow them useless although yes it should give you a solid feeling for relative valuation.

Interesting concept about whether owners in the league use hitting/pitching budgets. If not, then the whole idea of
a 69/31, 68/32, etc. split when calculating dollars value, with or without inflation becomes useless except for relative
valuation.

What's important is if YOU know what they are spending, even if THEY do not know it

[AllstonRockCity]

It's funny cuz I was asking almost this exact same question 3 years ago at this same time of year so I know exactly where you are at. I got the exact same answer from Todd that you did now. It made me think.

Now I do not look at the auction the same way as I did before. Now I do not care what a player's projected 'value' is. I only care what his value is to my team. I do not go to the auction looking for 'bargains' and essentially ending up with a squad filled with all the players the other teams didn't want (that's what I did my first year or 2). I also do not go out and target the handful of guys I must acquire and pay whatever, then just make the budget work with various $1 hitters and middle relievers(that's what I did the next 2 years). I don't get so hung up on what the numbers are, only what they are relative to the other guys out there.

Admittedly a lot of this has as much to do with having been in the league long enough to now know every nuance. But the answers in this thread are a big part too.

If you have been in this league for at least 4 years, you should know by now exactly what kind of guys go for about how much and what the 'magic' numbers are, the price points where most teams drop out of the bidding. When looking over your players, don't just look at them in the vacuum of what the CVRC has spit out at you. Picture these guys actually being nominated in your league. Break all the players down into tiers, then look at the tiers individually and pick out the guys in the tiers that you know will sell for too much. Then look at what's left and figure out who you really like. Also look at the guys that you know will sell for too much and figure out if you really need or want any of them and you can better prepare to have to over spend to get them. In this way you can find the guys you must have and fill in with quality supporting guys. At least it's worked for me for the last 2 years.