Matt Garza
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randyrein
Matt Garza
I'm curious as to the reasoning in the projection that Matt Garza will be a worse pitcher in the National League Central with the Cubs after posting decent numbers in the rugged AL East.
Re: Matt Garza
If you go to the strategy section, you will a piece called League Differences. That essay explains the reasoning. We have found the league difference to be largely anecdotal and not significantly reflected in the peripherals.
So the difference is simply due to park effect, specifically with respect to HR. The Trop depressed HR 6% while Wrigley increases them 10%.
That said, I may slightly increase his K/9 as suggested by the site research in that essay.
You are free to convince me to alter the HR/9 as well.
In addition, Garza has also outpitched his peripherals, that is, if you look at some of the advanced means of calculating expected ERAs, his various xERAs are always worse than his real ERA. While our methods do allow for the possibility some of this is "real", we favor regressing some of the luck-oriented stats towards the league mean. So even if he stayed in Tampa, his ERA and WHIP would have been worse than if you simply did a weighted average of previous seasons, to flesh out some of that good luck.
So the difference is simply due to park effect, specifically with respect to HR. The Trop depressed HR 6% while Wrigley increases them 10%.
That said, I may slightly increase his K/9 as suggested by the site research in that essay.
You are free to convince me to alter the HR/9 as well.
In addition, Garza has also outpitched his peripherals, that is, if you look at some of the advanced means of calculating expected ERAs, his various xERAs are always worse than his real ERA. While our methods do allow for the possibility some of this is "real", we favor regressing some of the luck-oriented stats towards the league mean. So even if he stayed in Tampa, his ERA and WHIP would have been worse than if you simply did a weighted average of previous seasons, to flesh out some of that good luck.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons - The Forum Funklord
Always remember, never forget, never say always or never. - The Forum Funklord
You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord
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randyrein
Re: Matt Garza
Thanks, Todd for the insight. I'm new to the site this week and just finding my way around it.