Justin Morneau

[aburt19]

I saw that someone from the front office at Minnesota said that the Twins were "optimisitic" about his status for the
season.

When it's been six or seven months since the concussion and the front office is just optimistic, that doesn't make me
real confident about Morneau's prospects for 2011. Optimistic to me means that he has been limited to the point that they
aren't confident. His playing time estimate would seem to be almost a guess at this point.

ST hasn't started, so there's plenty of time for the situation to clarify. But for now, I don't think I would to take him very
early in a draft or spend too much in an auction on him.

[Todd Zola]

Morneau is being discussed in a little depth in the comments here

http://www.mastersball.com/index.php?op ... 1294958463

My concern is two-fold.

1. Even if he is fine in the spring and is killing the ball, he has a history of concussions and one more blow to the head, and it could be career-ending. I know, this is baseball, but beanings and collisions, especially at first base, do occur.

2. From a projection standpoint, his numbers from last season were so off the chart good that even if he was exhibiting a new skill level, some regression would have occurred which did not have adequate time to occur. So you either use last year's numbers without adjusting for the likely regression or you subjectively guess its level.

Putting one and two together, my choice is going to be playing my risk card elsewhere since first base is not a position where you have to take chance in order to get production.

[Trav The Ump]

In an AL only 10 teamer I'd be looking at keeping Morneau as my CI at the salary below. If he returns to form along with Cabrera I've got a pretty scary tandem.

Is this a sound strategy? Being that he's Canadian and we are a Canadian league he does get a $1-$3 price jump. (We don't have a local team in Alberta).

I realize Todd's worries on the concussion as I've been catching up on all the previous posts. But Aaron Hill seemed to have a fairly productive return last year. He could also go John Olerud style and wear the skull cap over at 1B.

I'm looking at going BIG money into the draft with Crawford, Martinez, Cabrera, Felix, Verlander and Cecil. Morneau would be a nice addition to that roster if he's healthy.

Thoughts?

[aburt19]

In an AL only 10 teamer I'd be looking at keeping Morneau as my CI at the salary below. If he returns to form along with Cabrera I've got a pretty scary tandem.

Is this a sound strategy? Being that he's Canadian and we are a Canadian league he does get a $1-$3 price jump. (We don't have a local team in Alberta).

I realize Todd's worries on the concussion as I've been catching up on all the previous posts. But Aaron Hill seemed to have a fairly productive return last year. He could also go John Olerud style and wear the skull cap over at 1B.

I'm looking at going BIG money into the draft with Crawford, Martinez, Cabrera, Felix, Verlander and Cecil. Morneau would be a nice addition to that roster if he's healthy.

Thoughts?

What is your salary cap? The players listed total to $309. Obviously the salary cap isn't $260. Without knowing the
salary cap, it's impossible to make a judgment.

[Trav The Ump]

What is your salary cap? The players listed total to $309. Obviously the salary cap isn't $260. Without knowing the
salary cap, it's impossible to make a judgment.

It is $260, I haven't narrowed down my list of guys as of yet. I posted my list over in the team page (Martinez, Cabrera, Morneau, Crawford, Felix, Verlander and Cecil for $201)

[Todd Zola]

I'm actually more leery about Morneau -- he is still not 100%. Aaron Hill did not have the history of being concussed that Morneau has. I trade him or throw him back.

[southpaw]

12 team Roto 5x5 money league

Would you keep Morneau (I have him as one of my 5 keepers) or try to trade him for a guy like Dunn?
Are they about equal value in this format?

[da_big_kid_94]

12 team Roto 5x5 money league

Would you keep Morneau (I have him as one of my 5 keepers) or try to trade him for a guy like Dunn?
Are they about equal value in this format?

You can TRY to trade him for a guy like Dunn ...but if the Dunn owner has any baseball acumen, you won't get him. Right now, Morneau is just like Johan Santana - they're coning off injuries and you don't know what you have right now. If the shoe were on the other foot, would YOU take either one of them in a deal where you had to give up something substantial? Morneau's value is TBD - but because of all the warning bells we are hearing, it's safe to say he has much less value than he had going into last season at this point in time. I would lower my return expectations accordingly. BTW - what's Morneau's current salary (if applicable)?

[southpaw]

12 team Roto 5x5 money league

Would you keep Morneau (I have him as one of my 5 keepers) or try to trade him for a guy like Dunn?
Are they about equal value in this format?

You can TRY to trade him for a guy like Dunn ...but if the Dunn owner has any baseball acumen, you won't get him. Right now, Morneau is just like Johan Santana - they're coning off injuries and you don't know what you have right now. If the shoe were on the other foot, would YOU take either one of them in a deal where you had to give up something substantial? Morneau's value is TBD - but because of all the warning bells we are hearing, it's safe to say he has much less value than he had going into last season at this point in time. I would lower my return expectations accordingly. BTW - what's Morneau's current salary (if applicable)?

No salary.
Good point although I don't think it's quite like Santana's situation. He's for sure out until at least June.
I guess with Morneau's value being so low right now, all I can do is hold him and pray for the best.

[Todd Zola]

I know I keep beating this dead horse's drum, but the issue with Morneau extends past whether he is fine for opening day. It is that he is susceptible for being concussed again, and considering how long it has taken him to recover from this one, who knows if he would recover from another. The fact he is still not quite 100% is what everyone is pointing towards, I don't care if he is 100% right now.

[da_big_kid_94]

12 team Roto 5x5 money league

Would you keep Morneau (I have him as one of my 5 keepers) or try to trade him for a guy like Dunn?
Are they about equal value in this format?

You can TRY to trade him for a guy like Dunn ...but if the Dunn owner has any baseball acumen, you won't get him. Right now, Morneau is just like Johan Santana - they're coning off injuries and you don't know what you have right now. If the shoe were on the other foot, would YOU take either one of them in a deal where you had to give up something substantial? Morneau's value is TBD - but because of all the warning bells we are hearing, it's safe to say he has much less value than he had going into last season at this point in time. I would lower my return expectations accordingly. BTW - what's Morneau's current salary (if applicable)?

No salary.
Good point although I don't think it's quite like Santana's situation. He's for sure out until at least June.
I guess with Morneau's value being so low right now, all I can do is hold him and pray for the best.

The problem is you don't know if it's going to be quite like Santana's situation - you're just hoping it won't be ... how do you know Morneau won't be out until at least June based on what you have to go on right now? If I had told you last July 7th that, because of a concussion, Morneau would not get another at bat for the rest of the year, what would you have said? Yet that is pretty much the exact same situation you have right now.

You can hope for the best, but, as Todd says, even if he's "100%" for the opening of the season, what guarantee do you have he'll stay healthy? Morneau's the type of player you pick if you already HAVE a guy like Dunn. I'd cut him loose altogether - in a league where you can only keep 5, you can not afford such a huge risk going in. If you want him later, you can try for him during the draft - but not as a keeper.

And one other point - it's only a one year sampling ... but before you think about keeping Morneau, I would recommend you take a look at Target Field's park effects for HRs last year. Just one more mitigating factor.

[AllstonRockCity]

All this kind of makes you wonder.

If concussions are so devastating to baseball players (Morneau, Corey Koskie, and I know there were at least 2 others last season) and result in months and months being lost, how can NFL players get back out there 2 weeks later?

It's the same bruising of the brain. One would think it would take longer to go back to the NFL as it is a contact sport.

Weird.

[southpaw]

No salary.
Good point although I don't think it's quite like Santana's situation. He's for sure out until at least June.
I guess with Morneau's value being so low right now, all I can do is hold him and pray for the best.

The problem is you don't know if it's going to be quite like Santana's situation - you're just hoping it won't be ... how do you know Morneau won't be out until at least June based on what you have to go on right now? If I had told you last July 7th that, because of a concussion, Morneau would not get another at bat for the rest of the year, what would you have said? Yet that is pretty much the exact same situation you have right now.

You can hope for the best, but, as Todd says, even if he's "100%" for the opening of the season, what guarantee do you have he'll stay healthy? Morneau's the type of player you pick if you already HAVE a guy like Dunn. I'd cut him loose altogether - in a league where you can only keep 5, you can not afford such a huge risk going in. If you want him later, you can try for him during the draft - but not as a keeper.

And one other point - it's only a one year sampling ... but before you think about keeping Morneau, I would recommend you take a look at Target Field's park effects for HRs last year. Just one more mitigating factor.

Here are my current keepers:
(12 team 5x5 roto)

Cano
Wright
Cruz
Choo
Morneau

I dropped Carlos Santana at the end of last season. Big mistake in hindsight. Perhaps I should have held onto him and now I could have dropped Morneau. I hate to lose a power 1B but he certainly has me spooked.
WW right now includes Brett Gardner and Jose Tabata but I don't think either is worth more than Morneau. There might be more cuts as the keeper deadline nears.